Author Topic: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick  (Read 2937 times)

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Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #75: November 08, 2022, 10:48:21 AM »
I expect we'll get screwed with our 16% chance at #1. By the time our rebuild is finished, after we finish last and draft 8th 3 years in a row, MLB will fix it so that struggling franchises have higher odds.
We have a 16 percent chance.  We didn't get the first pick--we got screwed.  LOL. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #76: November 08, 2022, 02:14:26 PM »
All of it. What's the floor for our pick? Like #12 or #16 since this is the dumbest lottery of all time?

BTW, this reinforces the need for advanced and consistent scouting and dev. Teams like the Orioles, Astros, Dodgers, etc.
The floor is #7.  The lottery is for all on-playoff teams for the top 6 slots, then it is in reverse order of records the rest of the way (worst remaining record #7).

Offline Kevrock

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #77: November 08, 2022, 03:00:14 PM »
The floor is #7.  The lottery is for all on-playoff teams for the top 6 slots, then it is in reverse order of records the rest of the way (worst remaining record #7).

Oh. Not terrible but still terrible. Imagine the Orioles landing 1-1 and us going 7th. UGH.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #78: November 08, 2022, 04:05:58 PM »
I haven't seen a breakdown of the odds of each position lately.  IIRC, we have something like 50% for top 3 and 20% for #7.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #79: November 08, 2022, 04:42:13 PM »
Feel like we need a poll for us to vote on what pick we get

Offline HondoKillebrew

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #80: November 08, 2022, 06:04:26 PM »
Feel like we need a poll for us to vote on what pick we get

We get to vote for what pick we get?  Cool. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #81: November 09, 2022, 07:44:11 AM »
We could do a poll on whether to have a poll

Offline imref

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #82: November 09, 2022, 08:19:14 AM »
We could do a poll on whether to have a poll

Might not want to rush into that without having a pre-poll first


Offline UMDNats

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #83: November 09, 2022, 10:42:40 AM »
somehow like the dodgers are going to end up with the first overall pick

Offline Five Banners

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #84: November 09, 2022, 11:07:32 AM »
somehow like the dodgers are going to end up with the first overall pick

“In a stunning twist, the Astros ended up with every first round pick…”

Offline SkinsNatFan21RIP

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #85: November 13, 2022, 01:43:41 AM »
I just simply do not understand the need for a lottery in the MLB  draft? One player can’t really turn a franchise around. One player can certainly help speed a rebuild up but this just seems so dumb to me when you have a couple teams that can basically outspend everyone and you don’t have a salary cap. How is tanking to build a bad thing but allowing a team like the Dodgers to have a massive advantage money-wise a good thing? I mean, if you’re going to do a draft lottery just copy the NBAs and be done with it. It’s not even that it’s a lottery it’s just the absurdity of the percentages. Why would the three worst teams all have the same chance if their records are different? The whole concept is stupid. It’s as dumb as the extra innings rule. I’ve never seen a sport do more harm to itself than Baseball over the last 5 or so years.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #86: November 13, 2022, 07:37:03 AM »
I just simply do not understand the need for a lottery in the MLB  draft? One player can’t really turn a franchise around. One player can certainly help speed a rebuild up but this just seems so dumb to me when you have a couple teams that can basically outspend everyone and you don’t have a salary cap. How is tanking to build a bad thing but allowing a team like the Dodgers to have a massive advantage money-wise a good thing? I mean, if you’re going to do a draft lottery just copy the NBAs and be done with it. It’s not even that it’s a lottery it’s just the absurdity of the percentages. Why would the three worst teams all have the same chance if their records are different? The whole concept is stupid. It’s as dumb as the extra innings rule. I’ve never seen a sport do more harm to itself than Baseball over the last 5 or so years.

The easy solution is to not tank. This was never a problem until tanking became obvious. Personally, I’d like to see either the last teams in or out of the playoffs have the best odds to further reward teams that are at least trying. The nationals sucked, management is was either incompetent or trying lose before they traded Soto and gave up on the next few seasons- they don’t deserve to be rewarded with a great pick.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #87: November 13, 2022, 10:27:41 AM »
I just simply do not understand the need for a lottery in the MLB  draft? One player can’t really turn a franchise around. One player can certainly help speed a rebuild up but this just seems so dumb to me when you have a couple teams that can basically outspend everyone and you don’t have a salary cap. How is tanking to build a bad thing but allowing a team like the Dodgers to have a massive advantage money-wise a good thing? I mean, if you’re going to do a draft lottery just copy the NBAs and be done with it. It’s not even that it’s a lottery it’s just the absurdity of the percentages. Why would the three worst teams all have the same chance if their records are different? The whole concept is stupid. It’s as dumb as the extra innings rule. I’ve never seen a sport do more harm to itself than Baseball over the last 5 or so years.

The problem they're trying to fix isn't that tanking works in baseball - and make no mistake, it does - but that at any given time so many teams were doing it.  You had at times 6 or 7 teams trying to be really, really bad.  That's bad for the sport overall: it makes those fanbases angry, makes them non-draws when they're on the road, and because they're not spending money in free agency, also lowers salaries and annoys the players.

And back to the point of tanking working: it does, just not on a one-year basis like in basketball.  Since 2015, every winner except the Red Sox and Dodgers has had major components that were the result of top-5 picks from tanking.  Most of those teams - Nats, Astros, Braves, Cubs - tanked for multiple years intentionally to get to that point. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #88: November 13, 2022, 10:35:00 AM »
Even the 2018 Red Sox had Benintendi, who started and was a #6 pick, I think.  Also, wasn't Posey a high pick from bad finishes? Lincecum was top 10.


Development is still more important than tanking.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #89: November 13, 2022, 10:43:00 AM »
If they had put the lottery in place years ago the Nats might have not won in 2019.  Just be thankful for the drafts they had and the outcome. They had a high pick this year and will likely have a high pick next year so relax. Bigger issue is the new ownership.

Offline blue911

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #90: November 13, 2022, 02:06:39 PM »
The problem they're trying to fix isn't that tanking works in baseball - and make no mistake, it does - but that at any given time so many teams were doing it.  You had at times 6 or 7 teams trying to be really, really bad.  That's bad for the sport overall: it makes those fanbases angry, makes them non-draws when they're on the road, and because they're not spending money in free agency, also lowers salaries and annoys the players.

And back to the point of tanking working: it does, just not on a one-year basis like in basketball.  Since 2015, every winner except the Red Sox and Dodgers has had major components that were the result of top-5 picks from tanking.  Most of those teams - Nats, Astros, Braves, Cubs - tanked for multiple years intentionally to get to that point.


All good points. I think the severity of the penalties for exceeding the draft budget have pushed teams into tanking as the only proven strategy for success.FRM


Offline Kevrock

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #91: November 13, 2022, 02:25:11 PM »
Right. And teams now tank for the pool money, NOT for the high end 1-1 talent. The Orioles and Astros would tank, not take BPA, and bank the money. Then You have talent threatening not to sign and sliding to the teams with the most money.

It’s a mess. The more rules MLB puts in place the weirder it all gets.

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #92: November 13, 2022, 04:32:57 PM »
Even just 10-15 years ago, teams hesitated to tank out of a concern that it would cause their brand irreparable harm in the short-term even if the long-term benefits were undeniable. But now fans have gotten smarter: the 76ers especially made tanking cool. Fans now know how to be a fan of a tanking team, ignoring the major league product and getting excited about the prospects their favorite superstars were traded for or that their team might be able to draft.

The tanking will continue.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #93: November 13, 2022, 07:32:17 PM »
The easy solution is to not tank. This was never a problem until tanking became obvious. Personally, I’d like to see either the last teams in or out of the playoffs have the best odds to further reward teams that are at least trying. The nationals sucked, management is was either incompetent or trying lose before they traded Soto and gave up on the next few seasons- they don’t deserve to be rewarded with a great pick.

The Nats had to trade Soto when it became apparent he wasn't going to sign before he was free agent eligible. They had no other way to get multiple good players quickly. With or without him, but especially with him, they were going to lose at least through next year. At least now these young players should be helping at the major league level the year after next.

Offline SkinsNatFan21RIP

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #94: November 13, 2022, 07:47:50 PM »
The easy solution is to not tank. This was never a problem until tanking became obvious. Personally, I’d like to see either the last teams in or out of the playoffs have the best odds to further reward teams that are at least trying. The nationals sucked, management is was either incompetent or trying lose before they traded Soto and gave up on the next few seasons- they don’t deserve to be rewarded with a great pick.

So what should  they have done? Held onto a guy with no intentions of signing here who is most likely going to end up on the Mets or Dodgers. Two teams basically nobody can compete with contract-wise. If you want things to be fair institute a salary cap and stop allowing teams in a much higher market to just spend to their hearts desire.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #95: November 13, 2022, 09:13:25 PM »
So what should  they have done? Held onto a guy with no intentions of signing here who is most likely going to end up on the Mets or Dodgers. Two teams basically nobody can compete with contract-wise. If you want things to be fair institute a salary cap and stop allowing teams in a much higher market to just spend to their hearts desire.

How about not fielding a garbage team around a great player and then wondering why he wants out?

Offline imref

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #96: December 06, 2022, 09:52:24 AM »
draft lottery coverage starts at 8:30 PM ET tonight on MLB network

Offline Five Banners

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #97: December 06, 2022, 11:31:34 AM »
draft lottery coverage starts at 8:30 PM ET tonight on MLB network

Yay, the locals always do so well in draft lotteries

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #98: December 06, 2022, 11:54:34 AM »
Yay, the locals always do so well in draft lotteries

the Wizards got Kwame and Wall (not sure if it's 'good' or not if you get the number 1 pick and they bust)

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #99: December 06, 2022, 08:46:08 PM »
we got #2



Twins jump from 13th to the 5th pick