Author Topic: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick  (Read 4063 times)

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Offline Mattionals

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #150: December 09, 2022, 08:37:27 AM »
Huh?  Have we forgotten Soto already?


You know, I think we are all getting Slate duped again. Argument for the sake of Slate making an argument. Pass the popcorn, seen this one before. Also, shame on me for getting suckered into it.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #151: December 09, 2022, 08:50:28 AM »

You know, I think we are all getting Slate duped again. Argument for the sake of Slate making an argument. Pass the popcorn, seen this one before. Also, shame on me for getting suckered into it.
:lmao: Once in a generation talent spents five minutes in the minors. RIZZO DEVELOPED HIM!!!!!!

Soto developed himself. At this point, Im wondering how much he was held back because of the Nats' player development.

And because Rizzo cant develop even average major league talent, he had to flip Soto to make up for it.

Three seasons removed fromca World Series title, he is the GM of the worst team in baseball, and the worst team in franchise history. No matter how you cut it, thats catastrophic. Rizzo's tenure as President of Baseball Operations has directly resulted in that. He has utterly failed and if the ownership issue was not up in the air, he'd be gone.

Offline English Natsie

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #152: December 09, 2022, 09:13:30 AM »

Argument for the sake of Slate making an argument.

Surely not - how could we entertain such thoughts?.... :D   ;)

Offline imref

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #153: December 09, 2022, 09:19:05 AM »
Major league talent drafted by the Nats in the last 10 years (not counting fringe guys who barely got a cup of coffee):
- Lucas Giolito
- Spencer Keiboom
- Nick Pivetta
- Austin Voth
- Erick Fedde
- Max Schrock
- Andrew Stevenson
- Carter Kieboom
- Dane Dunning
- Sheldon Neuse
- Jesus Luzardo
- Will Crowe
- Cade Cavalli

Yeah,  it is a depressing list, but there have been some draft picks over the last 10 years who've had major league success. Much more of Rizzo's success has come from international signings (Robles, Soto, Garcia) or players he acquired (Finnegan, Rainey, Thomas, Ruiz, etc.)

Again, if Kieboom, Robles, and Fedde had developed, we wouldn't be having this conversation. That was the next core of guys, along with Soto and Turner. It didn't work out.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #154: December 09, 2022, 09:59:08 AM »
Major league talent drafted by the Nats in the last 10 years (not counting fringe guys who barely got a cup of coffee):
- Lucas Giolito
- Spencer Keiboom
- Nick Pivetta
- Austin Voth
- Erick Fedde
- Max Schrock
- Andrew Stevenson
- Carter Kieboom
- Dane Dunning
- Sheldon Neuse
- Jesus Luzardo
- Will Crowe
- Cade Cavalli

Yeah,  it is a depressing list, but there have been some draft picks over the last 10 years who've had major league success. Much more of Rizzo's success has come from international signings (Robles, Soto, Garcia) or players he acquired (Finnegan, Rainey, Thomas, Ruiz, etc.)

Again, if Kieboom, Robles, and Fedde had developed, we wouldn't be having this conversation. That was the next core of guys, along with Soto and Turner. It didn't work out.

The biggest successes are guys who get out of the system and have better organizations to develop them. Rizzo is great with the homerun guys who develop themselves, but that's about it.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #155: December 09, 2022, 10:28:29 AM »
there's two aspects of the Rizzo system of building an MLB team that have, for the most part, been very good. The first is Johnny DiPuglia's Caribbean and latin america operation and the second is his ability to cut worthwhile trades.  DiPuglia's guys are most of the products from the system who have made any contribution since we had the high picks a decade plus ago. In terms of trades, I think he is decisive depending on the direction of the team.  The Eaton deal, and perhaps the Doolittle / Madsen deal, are the epitome of not flinching when the goal is to win quickly and plug holes.  The Soto deal certainly was decisive when the goal was clearly to rebuild.  Drafting has been horrid, and free agency I think is limited by the Lerners views on how to do deals.

Offline Lazarchick 31

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #156: December 09, 2022, 10:33:19 AM »
I really hope the Pirates fall in love with Dollander or another name. Really want Crews here. I'm a firm believer you draft position and sign arms. Especially with the Rizzo pitcher development team at the helm.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #157: December 09, 2022, 10:54:28 AM »
there's two aspects of the Rizzo system of building an MLB team that have, for the most part, been very good. The first is Johnny DiPuglia's Caribbean and latin america operation and the second is his ability to cut worthwhile trades.  DiPuglia's guys are most of the products from the system who have made any contribution since we had the high picks a decade plus ago. In terms of trades, I think he is decisive depending on the direction of the team.  The Eaton deal, and perhaps the Doolittle / Madsen deal, are the epitome of not flinching when the goal is to win quickly and plug holes.  The Soto deal certainly was decisive when the goal was clearly to rebuild.  Drafting has been horrid, and free agency I think is limited by the Lerners views on how to do deals.

Horrid drafting ensures a perpetual rebuild unless the stars really align. The last run was jumpstarted by back to back number 1 overall picks that because dominant MLB players followed by the guy who should have gone number 1 slipping to us at 6. Is that what we're counting on happening again?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #158: December 09, 2022, 01:20:01 PM »
Horrid drafting ensures a perpetual rebuild unless the stars really align. The last run was jumpstarted by back to back number 1 overall picks that because dominant MLB players followed by the guy who should have gone number 1 slipping to us at 6. Is that what we're counting on happening again?
well, I'm not throwing in the towel on House, Green, and either Crews or Dollander just yet, and I am looking forward seeing what becomes of Wood and Susana.  Of course, Hassell should produce more than any pick between Giolito and Cavalli.

Offline imref

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #159: December 09, 2022, 02:29:29 PM »
well, I'm not throwing in the towel on House, Green, and either Crews or Dollander just yet, and I am looking forward seeing what becomes of Wood and Susana.  Of course, Hassell should produce more than any pick between Giolito and Cavalli.

I mentioned this earlier, and obviously it's way early, but our 2022 draft class looks pretty good so far:

Name/Team Prospect Rank:
1. Elijah Green #2 - .302 / .404 / .535 at Rookie ball
2. Jake Bennett #9  - instructional
3. Trey Lipscomb #18 - .299 / .327 / .392 at Low-A
4. Brenner Cox #22 - .286 / 366 / .400 at Rookie Ball
5. Jared McKenzie -#23  .400 / .425 / .614 at Low-A

Offline Slateman

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #160: December 09, 2022, 03:03:42 PM »
The biggest successes are guys who get out of the system and have better organizations to develop them. Rizzo is great with the homerun guys who develop themselves, but that's about it.

Ding ding ding

We're the worst team in baseball because the team was Juan Soto, trading for Josh Bell on a buy low deal, and nothing else. Because nothing else was in the system. Because Rizzo cant draft and/or develop MLB quality players.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #161: December 09, 2022, 03:11:43 PM »
there's two aspects of the Rizzo system of building an MLB team that have, for the most part, been very good. The first is Johnny DiPuglia's Caribbean and latin america operation and the second is his ability to cut worthwhile trades.  DiPuglia's guys are most of the products from the system who have made any contribution since we had the high picks a decade plus ago. In terms of trades, I think he is decisive depending on the direction of the team.  The Eaton deal, and perhaps the Doolittle / Madsen deal, are the epitome of not flinching when the goal is to win quickly and plug holes.  The Soto deal certainly was decisive when the goal was clearly to rebuild.  Drafting has been horrid, and free agency I think is limited by the Lerners views on how to do deals.

Sounds like DiPuglia should be the GM

The Eaton and Doolittle deals are classic examples of an inability

We had to throw in two significant pieces because Rizzo's system completely shattered Giolito. He was a catastrophe here. And Eaton was not an essential piece to any part of the Nats' success. Slap hitting corner outfielders are a dime a dozen.

We gave up Blake Treinen AND Jesus Luzardo. Blake Treinen became an elite reliever as soon as he left DC. So once again, a complete inability to develop players led to overpaying for a win-now solution to the problem.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #162: December 09, 2022, 03:12:25 PM »
I really hope the Pirates fall in love with Dollander or another name. Really want Crews here. I'm a firm believer you draft position and sign arms. Especially with the Rizzo pitcher development team at the helm.
Its entirely possible that the Pirates go with different guys, simply to get under slot. I'd actually say its a pretty good chance.

Dollander's understanding of metrics and willingness to work makes him Rizzo proof. He specically took a NIL deal to get access to the pitching analytics machines and coaching to improve himself. I think he could be special.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #163: December 09, 2022, 05:37:37 PM »
Its entirely possible that the Pirates go with different guys, simply to get under slot. I'd actually say its a pretty good chance.

Dollander's understanding of metrics and willingness to work makes him Rizzo proof. He specically took a NIL deal to get access to the pitching analytics machines and coaching to improve himself. I think he could be special.

Rizzo's entire front office MO is to reject science and data and lean heavily on the scouts and his own gut. I'm not sure anyone is Rizzo-proof.

Offline welch

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #164: December 09, 2022, 08:56:25 PM »
Least we forget, when the Nats came to DC in 2005 they had been stripped by the other MLB teams. From 2012 to 2019 they made the playoffs five times. They were as good as anybody from 2012 to 2019. When they only won 82 games in 2018 Rizzo made some slick moves like the catcher combo of Gomes and Suzuki, whose combined stats would of made one tremendous catcher, added a reliever Hudson from the garbage pile, let Gio and Roark leave while adding Corbin.

So while he hasn't drafted well the last few years, he has built a winner from nothing before and is on his way to doing it again, I hope.

Remember the Astros were horrible from 2009 - 2014.

This makes sense.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #165: December 09, 2022, 09:08:48 PM »
Rizzo's entire front office MO is to reject science and data and lean heavily on the scouts and his own gut. I'm not sure anyone is Rizzo-proof.
TBH, by the time Dollander makes it to Double A, I expect Rizzo to be gone

Offline DCsOwn

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #166: December 13, 2022, 10:55:16 PM »
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2023/draft/

MLB.com’s initial top 100

Also, Callis’ initial impressions about the strength of the class:

https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-top-100-prospects-list-2023

Regarding Dollander:

Dollander's combination of four quality pitches (beginning with a 95-99 mph fastball), command, athleticism and performance may make him the best college pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg (2009) or Gerrit Cole (2011).

Offline imref

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #167: December 13, 2022, 11:18:29 PM »
interesting to see Gonzalez drop to #5. I gotta think Rizzo is :az: over Dollander.  He'll be 22.5 at the start of the 2024 season and ideally would be ready to join a rotation of Gore, Cavalli, and Gray at some point that year.

here's the full MLB scouting report:

Quote
Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 60

Dollander began to blossom as a Georgia high schooler in 2020, but the truncated season didn't give him enough time to impress scouts, so he went undrafted before heading to Georgia Southern. He stymied Tennessee with eight strikeouts in 5 2/3 one-run innings in his college debut -- then joined the Volunteers as a transfer for his sophomore season and won Southeastern Conference pitcher of the year honors in 2022. He enters the year as the clear top arm in the 2023 Draft and may be the best college pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg (2009) and Gerrit Cole (2011).

Dollander's devastating arsenal begins with a 95-97 mph fastball that peaks at 99 and produces elite swing-and-miss rates with its combination of velocity and carry. His best secondary pitch is a tight slider that parks in the mid-80s and reaches 91 mph, and it can be a well-above-average offering with sweep at its best. He also has a bigger upper-70s curveball and a fading upper-80s changeup, both of which can be solid pitches but aren't as consistent as his primary weapons.

Not only does Dollander have frontline starter stuff, but he also commands it well. He ranked seventh in NCAA Division I in K/BB ratio (8.3) as a sophomore while repeating his simple delivery with ease. His athleticism helps him generate his premium pitches with little effort and he still has room to add more strength to his 6-foot-3 frame.

Offline GataNats

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #168: December 14, 2022, 01:31:46 AM »
Tennessee baseball is as dirty as any one single program in any sport. 

I know what went down at Georgia Southern

Offline DCsOwn

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #169: December 14, 2022, 01:59:12 PM »
Listened to the Callis/Mayo discussion on spaces a short time ago, and they’re both quite high on this draft’s top three (Crews, Dollander, Langford). They’ve heard from people in the league that think there’s a realistic possibility that Langford passes Crews at some point before the draft (not a certainty obviously, but Langford is moving to center this year and if he shows well there and continues hitting like he has been, it’s a definite possibility they believe), and they think that Skenes could end up challenging Dollander for the top pitcher spot if he puts it all together. Callis said that at the moment there’s a definite gap there though and said that he’d be surprised if any organization had someone other than Dollander as their top pitcher currently. Callis also said that he’d take Dollander over any college pitcher since Cole, and it sounded like a pretty easy call for him too. He is SKY high on Dollander, from his stuff, to his frame, to his athleticism to his makeup and competitiveness. Basically thinks he’s the full package. Struggled to even pinpoint a weakness finally settling on the fact that his curveball could be more consistent (called it his fourth best pitch).

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #170: December 14, 2022, 02:21:01 PM »
Tennessee baseball is as dirty as any one single program in any sport. 

I know what went down at Georgia Southern

You have any knowledge of their other programs?  *Cough basketball*

Offline Slateman

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #171: December 14, 2022, 02:38:49 PM »
Skees is 6'6". We know how Rizzo likes em tall

Offline DCsOwn

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #172: December 15, 2022, 02:20:35 PM »
https://www.mlb.com/news/deeper-dive-into-draft-prospects-pipeline-inbox

Callis Q&A

Commentary regarding Dollander:

A Tennessee right-hander, Chase Dollander has it all: an elite fastball, the makings of a wipeout slider and two more secondary pitches that could be plus, advanced command, athleticism, a quality delivery and a track record of performance. If we asked all 30 teams who the best pitcher in the 2023 Draft is right now, I have no doubt that all 30 would vote for Dollander.

Louisiana State righty Paul Skenes was spectacular this fall and could make a run at Dollander if he can sustain that over the full spring after transferring into the Southeastern Conference from Air Force. But as of now, there's a large gap between Dollander and the rest of the college pitchers and a substandard high school mound crop.

Dollander is the best college pitching prospect in a while. He has a deeper repertoire and better command than Vanderbilt's Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker did in 2021, and more pitches and athleticism than Auburn's Casey Mize, the No. 1 overall pick by the Tigers in 2018. San Diego State's Stephen Strasburg (No. 1 to the Nationals in 2009) was the best college pitching prospect ever, and the only one since then better than Dollander was UCLA's Gerrit Cole (No. 1 to the Pirates in 2011).

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #173: December 15, 2022, 02:34:05 PM »
Skees is 6'6". We know how Rizzo likes em tall

Offline Kevrock

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #174: December 16, 2022, 02:37:50 PM »
Maybe it's the Cole comparisons, but Dollander seems like someone the Pirates would take 1-1. If there's a clear #1 hitter and pitcher, hard to guess which one the 1-1 holder will take.