Author Topic: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick  (Read 4060 times)

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Offline Mattionals

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #125: December 07, 2022, 01:00:10 PM »
There can't be too much more of a mixed emotional sentence to hear for a 22-year-old than "You've been drafted first overall by the Pirates." 

Followed by the realization that if it takes you 3 years to make the majors, it's nine years before you're out of the thrall of an organization that makes no attempt to succeed in the competition in which it ostensibly competes.


If you are a non-local player getting drafted (meaning you don't have an emotional attachment to the team/area), what are the worst teams to be drafted by? I'd say Pittsburgh, Miami, and Oakland have to top the list. I bet the current state of the Nationals probably puts them in the next tier down.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #126: December 07, 2022, 01:32:59 PM »

If you are a non-local player getting drafted (meaning you don't have an emotional attachment to the team/area), what are the worst teams to be drafted by? I'd say Pittsburgh, Miami, and Oakland have to top the list. I bet the current state of the Nationals probably puts them in the next tier down.

That nats have shown a willingness to rush a player through the minors. Teams that are trying to maximize control are going to be the worst

Offline catocony

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #127: December 07, 2022, 01:45:52 PM »
DC is a really nice area to live in.  People here sell it short but it is.  There are some really good clubs in crappy areas - think St. Louis - and crappy clubs in good areas.  The Nats are currently a crappy club in a great area. 

That said, seeing as they'll be in the minors for a number of years, where the big league club is is somewhat irrelevant over the short hall.  I think they're all just looking forward to a big signing bonus and getting started as a pro.  Free agents are far more concerned about location than draft picks are. 

Offline blue911

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #128: December 07, 2022, 02:04:47 PM »
Reading scouting reports, Dollander comparables are strasburg (with better mechanics) and deGrom

Old and hurt?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #129: December 07, 2022, 02:11:30 PM »
Dollander sounds like Justin Verlander's marriage.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #130: December 07, 2022, 02:41:18 PM »
If they draft Dollander, do we get to hear about the inverted W again? I miss those stories

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #131: December 07, 2022, 04:14:02 PM »
Rizzo desperately trying to find a turd high school arm to draft over Crews or Dollander.

Offline Dave in Fairfax

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #132: December 07, 2022, 04:25:46 PM »
Good grief, freaking soccer fans....
The Netherlands baseball league had promotion/relegation until the end of the 2021 season, when they got rid of it. They also call baseball "honkbal".

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #133: December 07, 2022, 04:46:52 PM »
Rizzo desperately trying to find a turd high school arm to draft over Crews or Dollander.

Least we forget, when the Nats came to DC in 2005 they had been stripped by the other MLB teams. From 2012 to 2019 they made the playoffs five times. They were as good as anybody from 2012 to 2019. When they only won 82 games in 2018 Rizzo made some slick moves like the catcher combo of Gomes and Suzuki, whose combined stats would of made one tremendous catcher, added a reliever Hudson from the garbage pile, let Gio and Roark leave while adding Corbin.

So while he hasn't drafted well the last few years, he has built a winner from nothing before and is on his way to doing it again, I hope.

Remember the Astros were horrible from 2009 - 2014.

Offline imref

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #134: December 07, 2022, 04:52:01 PM »
Least we forget, when the Nats came to DC in 2005 they had been stripped by the other MLB teams. From 2012 to 2019 they made the playoffs five times. They were as good as anybody from 2012 to 2019. When they only won 82 games in 2018 Rizzo made some slick moves like the catcher combo of Gomes and Suzuki, whose combined stats would of made one tremendous catcher, added a reliever Hudson from the garbage pile, let Gio and Roark leave while adding Corbin.

So while he hasn't drafted well the last few years, he has built a winner from nothing before and is on his way to doing it again, I hope.

Remember the Astros were horrible from 2009 - 2014.

And the 21 team was 2.5 games back of first as late as July 1 before Schwarber went down (Strasburg's last start that year was June 1).

Offline imref

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #135: December 07, 2022, 04:55:05 PM »
If they draft Dollander, do we get to hear about the inverted W again? I miss those stories

Another comparison of Dollander to deGrom - https://atozsports.com/nashville/tennessee-volunteers/tennessee-vols-pitcher-draws-comparison-to-mlb-super-star/

Offline Kevrock

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #136: December 08, 2022, 08:30:43 AM »

If you are a non-local player getting drafted (meaning you don't have an emotional attachment to the team/area), what are the worst teams to be drafted by? I'd say Pittsburgh, Miami, and Oakland have to top the list. I bet the current state of the Nationals probably puts them in the next tier down.

IDK, you can rise pretty fast in some of those organizations. I'd also be more concerned about player development investment than actual competitiveness. Good players escape bad teams eventually. And good prospects on the juggernauts often get traded to teams like the ones you list.

Offline imref

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #137: December 08, 2022, 09:05:22 AM »
IDK, you can rise pretty fast in some of those organizations. I'd also be more concerned about player development investment than actual competitiveness. Good players escape bad teams eventually. And good prospects on the juggernauts often get traded to teams like the ones you list.

Miami due to the brutality of summers there and that god-awful stadium.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #138: December 08, 2022, 10:41:13 AM »
IDK, you can rise pretty fast in some of those organizations. I'd also be more concerned about player development investment than actual competitiveness. Good players escape bad teams eventually. And good prospects on the juggernauts often get traded to teams like the ones you list.

Yeah, more or less this.  But Pittsburgh's development is pretty uneven, especially if you're a pitcher.  Same story for Kansas City.  Nats would be down there just because their development sucks, again especially for pitchers.  I wouldn't want to be a hitter drafted by the Diamondbacks.

For the same reason, Oakland wouldn't be awful; and other than the stadium, the Bay Area is pretty nice.  Cleveland would be a good place to be drafted because of the development, even though it ends in Cleveland. 

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #139: December 08, 2022, 01:20:19 PM »
Yeah, more or less this.  But Pittsburgh's development is pretty uneven, especially if you're a pitcher.  Same story for Kansas City.  Nats would be down there just because their development sucks, again especially for pitchers.  I wouldn't want to be a hitter drafted by the Diamondbacks.

For the same reason, Oakland wouldn't be awful; and other than the stadium, the Bay Area is pretty nice.  Cleveland would be a good place to be drafted because of the development, even though it ends in Cleveland.


Development aside, the life in the minors won't be one where you get to spend time near the big league city, and that is more common for the West coast teams. At least with East coast teams like the Nats, you have the benefit of being within a 2 hour flight from Washington at all times, and arguably the minor league cities for the Nats aren't awful. I'd rather play in Fredericksburg, Wilmington, Harrisburg, and Rochester than having to play in Iowa.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #140: December 08, 2022, 01:36:42 PM »

Development aside, the life in the minors won't be one where you get to spend time near the big league city, and that is more common for the West coast teams. At least with East coast teams like the Nats, you have the benefit of being within a 2 hour flight from Washington at all times, and arguably the minor league cities for the Nats aren't awful. I'd rather play in Fredericksburg, Wilmington, Harrisburg, and Rochester than having to play in Iowa.

I think you seriously overrate those places, especially Rochester in April.  Not that Iowa's great in April either, of course, but Rochester is crap as AAA cities go.

And I'm not sure why being nearish DC is particularly useful when you're in A ball, so I might - just maybe, probably, definitely - would rather be someplace like Asheville.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #141: December 08, 2022, 04:35:16 PM »
I think you seriously overrate those places, especially Rochester in April.  Not that Iowa's great in April either, of course, but Rochester is crap as AAA cities go.

And I'm not sure why being nearish DC is particularly useful when you're in A ball, so I might - just maybe, probably, definitely - would rather be someplace like Asheville.


I want to be near Asheville as a mid 30s non-athlete.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #142: December 08, 2022, 05:34:30 PM »
Least we forget, when the Nats came to DC in 2005 they had been stripped by the other MLB teams. From 2012 to 2019 they made the playoffs five times. They were as good as anybody from 2012 to 2019. When they only won 82 games in 2018 Rizzo made some slick moves like the catcher combo of Gomes and Suzuki, whose combined stats would of made one tremendous catcher, added a reliever Hudson from the garbage pile, let Gio and Roark leave while adding Corbin.

So while he hasn't drafted well the last few years, he has built a winner from nothing before and is on his way to doing it again, I hope.

Remember the Astros were horrible from 2009 - 2014.

Lest we forget, the most successful player drafted by Mike Rizzo to play for the Washington Nationals in the last ten drafts was Erik Fedde. He built a winner off of back to back number 1 picks and a number 1 overall pick falling to him at number 6 due to injury concerns. He's not getting a pick in the top 6 for the next two years. So .... yeah .... how about we no longer consider Rizzo some sort of demigod amongst GMs. He's a poor man's Dombrowski at this point.

Offline imref

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #143: December 08, 2022, 05:57:29 PM »
Lest we forget, the most successful player drafted by Mike Rizzo to play for the Washington Nationals in the last ten drafts was Erik Fedde. He built a winner off of back to back number 1 picks and a number 1 overall pick falling to him at number 6 due to injury concerns. He's not getting a pick in the top 6 for the next two years. So .... yeah .... how about we no longer consider Rizzo some sort of demigod amongst GMs. He's a poor man's Dombrowski at this point.

Lucas Giolito checking in. And we didn't have first round picks in 2013 or 2015 because of free agent signings (Soriano, who was a bust, and Scherzer, who worked out OK.)

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #144: December 08, 2022, 09:19:36 PM »
Slate, your strawman argument doesn't hold water. You've gotta look at Rizzo from 2009 on and how he handled certain things that turned the Nats around. You like to point out Strasburg, Harper, and Rendon, but those three don't take the whole team and elevate them to annual contenders starting in 2012. He signs Jayson Werth to a deal that shows the Nats ARE invested in moving out of the cellar. He sticks with Ian Desmond at short who blossoms into a 20/20 player for the early portion of the 2010s. He turned Adam Dunn into Alex Meyer and Brian Goodwin, and Meyer brought back Denard Span. He trades a bunch of garbage bins and gets back players like Michael Morse, Doug Fister, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark, and so on. He would sign random guys like Chad Tracy to fill out the bench. He made bullish moves on the likes of Asdrubal Cabrera and Kurt Suzuki. You don't get the 2019 Nats without going through those other years and other guys. You don't get to sign Max Scherzer to come and help win a WS without first changing the organization with a Jayson Werth signing.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #145: December 08, 2022, 09:59:26 PM »
Slate, your strawman argument doesn't hold water. You've gotta look at Rizzo from 2009 on and how he handled certain things that turned the Nats around. You like to point out Strasbourg, Harper, and Rendon, but those three don't take the whole team and elevate them to annual contenders starting in 2012. He signs Jayson Werth to a deal that shows the Nats ARE invested in moving out of the cellar. He sticks with Ian Desmond at short who blossoms into a 20/20 player for the early portion of the 2010s. He turned Adam Dunn into Alex Meyer and Brian Goodwin, and Meyer brought back Denard Span. He trades a bunch of garbage bins and gets back players like Michael Morse, Doug Fister, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark, as so on. He would sign random guys like Chad Tracy to fill out the bench. He made bullish moves on the likes of Asdrubal Cabrera and Kurt Suzuki. You don't get the 2019 Nats without going through those other years and other guys. You don't get to sign Max Scherzer to come and help win a WS without first changing the organization with a Jayson Werth signing.

All that is true and it was a shrewd move to select Rendon when others passed him up.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #146: December 08, 2022, 10:54:41 PM »
Slate, your strawman argument doesn't hold water. You've gotta look at Rizzo from 2009 on and how he handled certain things that turned the Nats around. You like to point out Strasbourg, Harper, and Rendon, but those three don't take the whole team and elevate them to annual contenders starting in 2012. He signs Jayson Werth to a deal that shows the Nats ARE invested in moving out of the cellar. He sticks with Ian Desmond at short who blossoms into a 20/20 player for the early portion of the 2010s. He turned Adam Dunn into Alex Meyer and Brian Goodwin, and Meyer brought back Denard Span. He trades a bunch of garbage bins and gets back players like Michael Morse, Doug Fister, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark, as so on. He would sign random guys like Chad Tracy to fill out the bench. He made bullish moves on the likes of Asdrubal Cabrera and Kurt Suzuki. You don't get the 2019 Nats without going through those other years and other guys. You don't get to sign Max Scherzer to come and help win a WS without first changing the organization with a Jayson Werth signing.
I'd give that post an A+ but have to dock at least a couple points for the Strasburg misspelling!

It was a nice walk down memory lane of a much better time.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #147: December 09, 2022, 07:19:04 AM »
Slate, your strawman argument doesn't hold water. You've gotta look at Rizzo from 2009 on and how he handled certain things that turned the Nats around. You like to point out Strasbourg, Harper, and Rendon, but those three don't take the whole team and elevate them to annual contenders starting in 2012. He signs Jayson Werth to a deal that shows the Nats ARE invested in moving out of the cellar. He sticks with Ian Desmond at short who blossoms into a 20/20 player for the early portion of the 2010s. He turned Adam Dunn into Alex Meyer and Brian Goodwin, and Meyer brought back Denard Span. He trades a bunch of garbage bins and gets back players like Michael Morse, Doug Fister, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark, as so on. He would sign random guys like Chad Tracy to fill out the bench. He made bullish moves on the likes of Asdrubal Cabrera and Kurt Suzuki. You don't get the 2019 Nats without going through those other years and other guys. You don't get to sign Max Scherzer to come and help win a WS without first changing the organization with a Jayson Werth signing.
It absolutely holds water. We are the worst team in baseball. Rizzo took a team that was dominant for 8 seasons and won a World Series and ran it into the ground. How? Because none of his draft picks since Rendon have made a meaningful contribution to the organization.

He trades well, but he has simply not developed the talent to keep a team competitive. And as someone who claims to be based in scouting, none of his scouting in the last ten years has resulted in major league talent for the Nats.

Rizzo has built the worst team in baseball and a minor league system that was one of the worst until he used two MVP caliber players and a HoF to make up for ten years of crappy drafts.

He's really good at trading prospects and spending money. But so are a lot GMs. He's now in charge of a rebuild and his most recent builds are collapsing due being woefully outdated.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #148: December 09, 2022, 08:32:57 AM »
I'd give that post an A+ but have to dock at least a couple points for the Strasburg misspelling!

It was a nice walk down memory lane of a much better time.


Autocorrect on GBoard seems to make weird gaffes like that. I spend less time on a computer screen on this site, and way more on my phone. The benefit (curse) of parenting kids under 4

Offline imref

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Re: Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick
« Reply #149: December 09, 2022, 08:35:53 AM »
Quote
He trades well, but he has simply not developed the talent to keep a team competitive. And as someone who claims to be based in scouting, none of his scouting in the last ten years has resulted in major league talent for the Nats.
Huh?  Have we forgotten Soto already?