The Nats are...For Sale?!?

[English Natsie]

Yup, attendance will drop like a rock from the already low attendance this year.  What are the odds the Nats lower my ticket price next year by the 20% that they jacked it up going into this year?  Actually, they should lower it by 30% or more considering they won't be competitive for at least the next two years.

I admire your optimism - they'll increase them...

[Smithian]

Yup, attendance will drop like a rock from the already low attendance this year.  What are the odds the Nats lower my ticket price next year by the 20% that they jacked it up going into this year?  Actually, they should lower it by 30% or more considering they won't be competitive for at least the next two years.

Raising the prices for this season was brutal.

We have a longer discussion somewhere, but it can't go without being mentioned again that the Nationals are a Top 5 priciest MLB ticket without the history, market, and current success to sustain it. Success matters more than anything, but the tickets are terrible and good luck to the new ownership group figuring that one out.

[Kevrock]

I have zero faith they’ll sell the team to an owner that doesn’t suck

[HalfSmokes]

The Nats had one of the highest payrolls for several years. Are you saying they lost money? I don’t believe that even with the MASN fiasco. 

I think old man Lerner wanted to win one and deferred every dime he could so that it would be someone else’s problem

[HalfSmokes]

Raising the prices for this season was brutal.

We have a longer discussion somewhere, but it can't go without being mentioned again that the Nationals are a Top 5 priciest MLB ticket without the history, market, and current success to sustain it. Success matters more than anything, but the tickets are terrible and good luck to the new ownership group figuring that one out.

With the secondary market, it’s basically a sucker tax

[PowerBoater69]

I think old man Lerner wanted to win one and deferred every dime he could so that it would be someone else’s problem

Is that a bad thing?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

you know, they sent out an email blast I think a couple of weeks ago about 2023, and I never even looked at it.  I imagine I will renew, but I know group members who want to further cut back.  OTOH we may get some interest from folks who passed on this year and just used credits. 

We've had this group together since OPACY opened.  4 seats, a few years I think with 6, almost always full season.  Had a few half seasons around 2010 and a few half seasons and partial package.  This year, it's just 2 full season.

[Natsinpwc]

Is that a bad thing?

Not if you win; now it looks not so good.  C'est la vie.

[Natsinpwc]

New owners are on the hook for about $100 million in deferred salaries per this ink.  I believe the Max payments of $15 million each year go one year past their chart.  Now that is a liability when the asset is totally gone.  Does not count against the luxury tax of course but the cash will go out.  Throw in the Strasburg and Corbin contracts and those are some major liabilities with little or no benefit. 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/yearly/payroll/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

New owners are on the hook for about $100 million in deferred salaries per this ink.  I believe the Max payments of $15 million each year go one year past their chart.  Now that is a liability when the asset is totally gone.  Does not count against the luxury tax of course but the cash will go out.  Throw in the Strasburg and Corbin contracts and those are some major liabilities with little or no benefit. 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/yearly/payroll/

the article on the 5 groups of buyers mentioned that the total debt is about $500 million, with $200 million owed to Scherzer, Stras, and Corbin.
 
Janes Says:

Anyone who purchases the Nationals will be inheriting approximately $500 million in debt, including $200 million owed to Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, and a long-term deal for Soto on Boras’s terms would have meant committing another $500 million or more. Considering the team seems likely to sell for less than the $2.4 billion Steve Cohen paid for the Mets in 2020, that’s a daunting amount of inherited expenses.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/08/12/washington-nationals-sale-stanley-middleman/

It's $59 million to Corbin.  Stras is more complicated. His nominal salary is $35 million per year 2020-2026, but $11.4 each year is deferred to 2027 and beyond.  That amount to $80 million, plus call it $23.6 million per year for 4 more seasons ('23-26).  That sounds like about $95 million in salary and $80 million in a deferral. What is Scherzer?  $15 million per year until 2028?  6 more years?  That sounds like $90 million. So 90 plus 59 plus 175 is . . . $324 million? Oh, and Cruz has a $3 million buyout.

My numbers for Corbin and Stras are from Cot's.  https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/washington-nationals/

[Natsinpwc]

the article on the 5 groups of buyers mentioned that the total debt is about $500 million, with $200 million owed to Scherzer, Stras, and Corbin.
 
Janes Says:https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/08/12/washington-nationals-sale-stanley-middleman/

It's $59 million to Corbin.  Stras is more complicated. His nominal salary is $35 million per year 2020-2026, but $11.4 each year is deferred to 2027 and beyond.  That amount to $80 million, plus call it $23.6 million per year for 4 more seasons ('23-26).  That sounds like about $95 million in salary and $80 million in a deferral. What is Scherzer?  $15 million per year until 2028?  6 more years?  That sounds like $90 million. So 90 plus 59 plus 175 is . . . $324 million?

My numbers for Corbin and Stras are form Cot's.  https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/washington-nationals/

Yea. Max is $15 million a year for 7 years starting 2022. I understand a Soto contract would have added to the debt but it would have been over a longer time frame than Strasburg’s. And at least he can perform. 

Any team is going to have at least $100 million payroll each year. Those are operating expenses. If we don’t have owners that can fund at least a $150 million payroll each year we are doomed unless we poach all the Rays front office folks.

I always envisioned that once the deferrals came due the Lerners would be crying that they had to lower payroll to adjust for that cash. No matter how much they had made with that money they had saved in prior years. Just did not anticipate them selling.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

To me, it looks like in 2027 there's $27 million or so owed to Stras and $15 million owed to Scherzer, then it drops to $27 million to Stras in 2028, then $30 million or so in 2029 including the interest payment of about $4 million.  OTOH, Stras is really getting $23.6 million in cash the next few years.  If the owners are looking to cove team expenses through cash flow, that's a heck of an annual crimp.

[Natsinpwc]

To me, it looks like in 2027 there's $27 million or so owed to Stras and $15 million owed to Scherzer, then it drops to $27 million to Stras in 2028, then $30 million or so in 2029 including the interest payment of about $4 million.  OTOH, Stras is really getting $23.6 million in cash the next few years.  If the owners are looking to cove team expenses through cash flow, that's a heck of an annual crimp.

We're doomed. 

[nats4ever]

Any news on how might be the favorite to buy the team?

[imref]

Any news on how might be the favorite to buy the team?

Some guy named Fudd who owns a mansion and a yacht.

[Section214]

https://frontofficesports.com/washington-nationals-expect-bids-for-team-by-end-of-season/

Article on Front Office Sports listing Michael Kim, Larry Lucchino, Stanley Middleman and Ted Leonsis as potential buyers for the Nationals.

Kim would be the one with the most cash to throw around, but if Lucchino comes with Theo Epstein as part of the group, sign me up!

[Slateman]

https://frontofficesports.com/washington-nationals-expect-bids-for-team-by-end-of-season/

Article on Front Office Sports listing Michael Kim, Larry Lucchino, Stanley Middleman and Ted Leonsis as potential buyers for the Nationals.

Kim would be the one with the most cash to throw around, but if Lucchino comes with Theo Epstein as part of the group, sign me up!

Would take Theo and a budget then some rich dude who wrote a novel

[HalfSmokes]

We'll get Ted, overpay whoever he drafts first to stay and then be told that we should be satisfied with perpetual mediocrity. Rich enough to compete in hockey is not rich enough to win in baseball

[UMDNats]

Baseball twitter just doing a daily dunking on mike's player development staff over completely freaking up austin voth. every time he starts people just drop how super simple changes turned voth into a good player.

good think mike has his CRACK TEAM of a 93-year-old and a dude who was basically out of baseball before taking over the system. new owners need to make rizzo fire literally every single coach. I'd be surprised if literally any player development person even knows what spin rate is. We are literally the dinosaur scouts in moneyball JFC

[KnorrForYourMoney]

We'll get Ted, overpay whoever he drafts first to stay and then be told that we should be satisfied with perpetual mediocrity. Rich enough to compete in hockey is not rich enough to win in baseball

Or, he'll hire some generally successful manager who's never quite been able to win the big one (e.g. Cash, Counsell, Baldelli), they'll come here and win a World Series, then he'll fire them or refuse to pay them in the offseason.

Hell no to spray-tan Ted.

[Kevrock]

Rizzo talked about Corbin’s spin rate yesterday.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Rizzo talked about Corbin’s spin rate yesterday.

and said?

[Natsinpwc]

and said?

Davey has been trying to spin things about Corbin. 

[Kevrock]

That spin rate is the culprit and not velo. He even tied it to sticky stuff.

Just posted because above said we don’t know what spin rate is.

[imref]

A little financial perspective: The family fortune of the 96-year-old billionaire Nats owner, Ted Lerner, has so far this year jumped by $365 million, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. In just seven months, the Lerner clan has amassed most of what Soto’s agent wants for the rest of his client’s entire career. The Lerners currently have the Nats up for sale. They’ll almost certainly collect over $2 billion when a sale finalizes, well over quadruple the $450 million they paid for the team 16 years ago.

Rest of the article is political so I won’t link to it here.