Strasburg 2022

[Natsinpwc]

Like what the Os are doing.

It’s working so well for them!

[Chelsea_Phil]

Well, to be fair, their minor league teams are stacked with good players and they are starting to play some really good ball now. 

[Natsinpwc]

How are Nats fans to look at Stras in the future?  As the prime reason the Nats won the WS (I know, others have just about equal credentials, like Scherzer), or the person who saddled the team with one of the worst contracts in history that will hold the team back for years on end?  I say , sadly, the latter.

You seem like a glass half empty guy. Would you trade the title for being competitive now? I would not. Don’t forget he signed an earlier extension which was favorable to the Nats.

[Chelsea_Phil]

True, but that sure is a horrid contract that should never have been made.  The first extension was a good one for sure.  I think what I was trying to say is that it will taint Stras’ legacy., which until then was immaculate

[dracnal]

True, but that sure is a horrid contract that should never have been made.  The first extension was a good one for sure.  I think what I was trying to say is that it will taint Stras’ legacy., which until then was immaculate

Not for me. There's a reason he deserved World Series MVP and even if he never pitches another inning as a Nat, he will be way up there in my list of favorites.

[imref]

Watching Freeman's return to Atlanta last night was another reminder that sometimes you have to put what's best for the team ahead of what's best for the player. Olson is putting up similar numbers (~50 points lower BA, a few more home runs) to Freeman for a contract that is about $7 million a year less, and that covers his age 28-36 seasons versus Freddie's which covers his age 32-38 seasons. As heartbreaking as it must have been for Atlanta fans to lose their franchise player a year after winning the WS, it's hard to argue that they didn't make the right move.

[Kevrock]

Olson is not putting up comparable numbers. Freeman is way ahead in WAR, wRC+, OPS+. I think he was close to double Olson’s Fangraphs WAR. It’s actually hard to defend Atlanta’s move right now.

Whether this trend continues over the years is what we don’t know.

[imref]

Olson is not putting up comparable numbers. Freeman is way ahead in WAR, wRC+, OPS+. I think he was close to double Olson’s Fangraphs WAR. It’s actually hard to defend Atlanta’s move right now.

Whether this trend continues over the years is what we don’t know.

I looked at the slash lines earlier, I didn't dig into advanced stats:

.252   .349   .816, 10 HRs for Olson
.304   .389   .882, 8 HRs for Freedie

yeah, you are right.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

How are Nats fans to look at Stras in the future?  As the prime reason the Nats won the WS (I know, others have just about equal credentials, like Scherzer), or the person who saddled the team with one of the worst contracts in history that will hold the team back for years on end?  I say , sadly, the latter.

I go with core player in the heyday coupled with an incredible playoff performance that culminated in winning it all. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I/M/O, I think the "oh, we have to be lousy because we have $60 million tied up in Stras and Corbin" is a bit of BS.  Stras is a little less damaging than Corbin because he's not losing once every 5th day (an exaggeration - Corbin is better than that), but instead of spending just $60 million on top of the lame contracts (counting Harris as well) to field a horrid team, they could have spent $80 million and had a team that could have competed for the wild card.  The attendance and vibe in town would have been better too.  They did not have to be this bad simply because of Stras's money.

[Slateman]

I/M/O, I think the "oh, we have to be lousy because we have $60 million tied up in Stras and Corbin" is a bit of BS.  Stras is a little less damaging than Corbin because he's not losing once every 5th day (an exaggeration - Corbin is better than that), but instead of spending just $60 million on top of the lame contracts (counting Harris as well) to field a horrid team, they could have spent $80 million and had a team that could have competed for the wild card.  The attendance and vibe in town would have been better too.  They did not have to be this bad simply because of Stras's money.

Plus 15 million tied up in Scherzer.

It takes a really good farm system to compete at 80 million. The Nats dont have that. And they havent even invested in it until last offseason.

[imref]

I go with core player in the heyday coupled with an incredible playoff performance that culminated in winning it all. 

HoF-level player who had trouble staying healthy, but when he was healthy, he was one of the best in the game.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Plus 15 million tied up in Scherzer.

It takes a really good farm system to compete at 80 million. The Nats dont have that. And they havent even invested in it until last offseason.

Well, this is where we get into signing an innings eater (I am not saying I figured Tyler Anderson would be as good as he is, but that's one of the ones that was often mentioned and even suggested by writers as a good fit), ideally a CF/ LF and a decent 2d/SS/3B.  i probably would have prioritized those moves over signing Cruz, and if you knock Cruz's $15 million guarantee, you could redeploy that money to have made a play for Story/ Correa. Yadi could have handled it, or Yadi / Thomas if you wanted Thomas full-time (split between DH and CF) and Yadi / Robles platooning. Mind you, I understand not playing for those guys now if they are looking to sell, but I'd have liked to have seen them trying to begin to complement Soto instead of running the clock out on him.  Oh, and to be 100% honest, I thought they should have played  for Kris Bryant, which now looks like a questionable signing.

As for money owed Scherzer and other deferrals, I don't think that should impact decision-making at all.  Cash payroll should not matter as much as CBT payroll that's based on AAV.

[Slateman]

It clearly is affecting decision making. I dont think the Nationals are nearly as profitable as a lot of fans think. The MASN deal is a ball buster. No other team in a major media market is hamstrung like that.

We have a ~70 million dollar penalty on payroll. To overcome that, you need a great farm system with good analytics to go with it. We have neither of those.

Like I've been saying, I hope everyone enjoyed 2019, because its going to be a while before this team is ever competitive again.

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

Glass half full - no waits for the pissoire

[imref]

It clearly is affecting decision making. I dont think the Nationals are nearly as profitable as a lot of fans think. The MASN deal is a ball buster. No other team in a major media market is hamstrung like that.

We have a ~70 million dollar penalty on payroll. To overcome that, you need a great farm system with good analytics to go with it. We have neither of those.

Like I've been saying, I hope everyone enjoyed 2019, because its going to be a while before this team is ever competitive again.

And add in the uncertainty over the ownership situation.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

And add in the uncertainty over the ownership situation.

I hope that is resolved before the off-season because clearly that was a huge, if not the, factor.

[van lingle mungo]

I/M/O, I think the "oh, we have to be lousy because we have $60 million tied up in Stras and Corbin" is a bit of BS.  Stras is a little less damaging than Corbin because he's not losing once every 5th day (an exaggeration - Corbin is better than that), but instead of spending just $60 million on top of the lame contracts (counting Harris as well) to field a horrid team, they could have spent $80 million and had a team that could have competed for the wild card.  The attendance and vibe in town would have been better too.  They did not have to be this bad simply because of Stras's money.

I  agree, and the thing I don't understand is if they're serious about selling the team, then why would they cut corners and devalue their product? All they had to do was pick up a pair of serviceable starting pitchers to cover any likelihood of Strasburg and Ross not panning out physically and this season might not have gone as poorly as it has so far.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I  agree, and the thing I don't understand is if they're serious about selling the team, then why would they cut corners and devalue their product? All they had to do was pick up a pair of serviceable starting pitchers to cover any likelihood of Strasburg and Ross not panning out physically and this season might not have gone as poorly as it has so far.

Let's put it this way.  After they won the WS, the value of the franchise jumped $100 million, to $1.9 Billion.  It went up $25 million in 2021 and another $75 million in 2022 to $2 Billion.  https://www.statista.com/statistics/194644/mlb-franchise-value-of-the-washington-nationals-since-2006/ some of that bounce in 2022 was due to an assumption for normal attendance conditions.  More or less, assuming contending doesn't even impact attendance or the broadcast revenue, an extra $20 million or so annual commitment isn't going to be material to the sale, and there's some likelihood at least a portion of that is earned back by better fan support.

[Natsinpwc]

So NO news is BAD news?

[Slateman]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/stephen-strasburg-not-expected-to-return-this-season.html
https://nypost.com/2022/07/18/cubs-dont-make-willson-contreras-long-term-offer/

It’s not a huge surprise, as the Nats have previously suggested they feared he’s suffered a recurrence of the thoracic outlet syndrome that cut his 2021 campaign short. That necessitated surgery last July, although Heyman writes that Strasburg fortunately will not need to undergo another procedure. Nevertheless, it seems even a non-surgical rehab won’t afford the veteran righty an opportunity to make it back to the mound this year.

was initially reported to be a stress reaction in his first rib, which likely was a direct result from the TOS surgery. Which, ok, not ideal but surgical complications happen. But this article says he’s dealing with a nerve issue. Which in that situation likely means the TOS surgery was not successful in relieving that nerve impingement. I see that they say surgery is not needed, but man him having recurring nerve issues post-TOS surgery is not great.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/stephen-strasburg-not-expected-to-return-this-season.html
https://nypost.com/2022/07/18/cubs-dont-make-willson-contreras-long-term-offer/

was initially reported to be a stress reaction in his first rib, which likely was a direct result from the TOS surgery. Which, ok, not ideal but surgical complications happen. But this article says he’s dealing with a nerve issue. Which in that situation likely means the TOS surgery was not successful in relieving that nerve impingement. I see that they say surgery is not needed, but man him having recurring nerve issues post-TOS surgery is not great.

I think that, if you look back at his injury history, he's been dealing with cervical and shoulder nerve impingements since 2016 / 2017.  Svrluga did a review of Strasburg's injury history and it's clear this was always a chronic thing that finally got so bad they needed the surgery.  You would have hoped the surgery would have completely fixed it, but if it just got things back to how it was when he could pitch through it, I suppose that means we might be able to get the 20-25 starts again, with periodic shutdowns to relieve the inflammation and effects (generally after he gets shelled).

[imref]

time to rename this thread to 2023

[catocony]

The predictions a decade ago about future problems due to his scarecrow-style throwing motion have certainly come true.  It's too bad for Stras but at least he has a hundreds of millions of bucks to make himself feel better. 

[Slateman]

I think that, if you look back at his injury history, he's been dealing with cervical and shoulder nerve impingements since 2016 / 2017.  Svrluga did a review of Strasburg's injury history and it's clear this was always a chronic thing that finally got so bad they needed the surgery.  You would have hoped the surgery would have completely fixed it, but if it just got things back to how it was when he could pitch through it, I suppose that means we might be able to get the 20-25 starts again, with periodic shutdowns to relieve the inflammation and effects (generally after he gets shelled).

If its clearly chronic, and the surgeries didnt fix it, then whats the plan here? He clearly cant pitch anymore. Do you just always give him the number 5 spot in the rotation and use your depth when he inevitably goes down?