Strasburg 2022

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Strasburg came into the league throwing 98 mph when the mlb average FB velocity was 90.5.  In 2019, he was averaging 93.9, while the league average was 93.1.    The league average is getting close to 94 this year.  If he's going to improve from his 90.3 fb velocity from his first start, it's tough to imagine that he can be even a replacement level pitcher going forward.

if he throws that curve 35% of the time, and the change 20-25%, he's better than replacement.

Julio Urias's average fastball is 92.5 MPH, throws 36% curves and 18% changes, and does pretty well.  that said, he probably generates more movement with his fastball.  OTOH, he lacks a change like Stras's.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/julio-urias/14765/stats?position=P

[Smithian]

Strasburg came into the league throwing 98 mph when the mlb average FB velocity was 90.5.  In 2019, he was averaging 93.9, while the league average was 93.1.    The league average is getting close to 94 this year.  If he's going to improve from his 90.3 fb velocity from his first start, it's tough to imagine that he can be even a replacement level pitcher going forward.

I'm not too worried about velocity. He has always had incredible secondary pitches. Problem is endurance and control.

[nfotiu]

if he throws that curve 35% of the time, and the change 20-25%, he's better than replacement.

Julio Urias's average fastball is 92.5 MPH, throws 36% curves and 18% changes, and does pretty well.  that said, he probably generates more movement with his fastball.  OTOH, he lacks a change like Stras's.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/julio-urias/14765/stats?position=P

Urias is still 2-3 mph faster than Strasburg, and is a lefty.  There's probably a little more reason to be hopeful if Strasburg can get 2-3 mph back.   He's going to get knocked around in early innings if he throws a lot of fastballs, and will get ugly 2nd and 3rd time through if he's showing all his pitches from the start.   

No reason not to give him all the time in the world to figure it out.   It just doesn't seem very realistic to pin much hope on him becoming an important piece again.

[Slateman]

if he throws that curve 35% of the time, and the change 20-25%, he's better than replacement.

Julio Urias's average fastball is 92.5 MPH, throws 36% curves and 18% changes, and does pretty well.  that said, he probably generates more movement with his fastball.  OTOH, he lacks a change like Stras's.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/julio-urias/14765/stats?position=P

Urias is a lefty. His fastball is down almost 2mph from last year. His K/9 is down while his HR/9 are way up. His fastball and sinker are 600+ rpm better than what Stras showed last week, and 400 more than Stras showed in 2019.

Strasburg's comps right now are 2021 versions of Aaron Nola or Merrill Kelley

[Natsinpwc]

Strasburg's comps right now are 2021 versions of Aaron Nola or Merrill Kelley

Nola’s fastball is down slightly this year from the last couple. 92.7 versus 93.1. But his ERA is down a run.  It would be nice if Stras could throw 92/93 versus 90/91. We shall see.

[Natsinpwc]

Greinke’s fastball has been below 91 since 2017. Below 90 the past few years. So it can be done. But not easy.

[DPMOmaha]

Greinke’s fastball has been below 91 since 2017. Below 90 the past few years. So it can be done. But not easy.

And to some degree, I wonder if the ability to do that with a lot more experience and maturity. Strasburg would fit those categories. You don't typically young players come up with that mentality.

[nfotiu]

Greinke hasn't done much the last 3 years.   The game has changed.  High 90s pitchers are a commodity now and teams are carrying plenty of them on their roster and ready to be called up as they break down.

[UMDNats]

There's always a few guys who throw slower who hang around longer than their velo says they should. Strasburg should just be that.

[Kevrock]

Yeah, the sport hasn’t changed that much, Stras has excellent stuff outside of his fastball.

[Natsinpwc]

Greinke hasn't done much the last 3 years.   The game has changed.  High 90s pitchers are a commodity now and teams are carrying plenty of them on their roster and ready to be called up as they break down.

ERA around 4 the past two years. A run higher this year. A 4.50 ERA would make Strasburg the Nats’ ace.

[imref]

See you in 2023

Mark Zuckerman
@MarkZuckerman
Stephen Strasburg will be going back on the IL after reporting discomfort in his bullpen session following Thursday’s start. Davey Martinez said Strasburg went for an MRI today, they’re still waiting for results. Tomorrow’s starter TBD.

[bluestreak]

https://www.mlb.com/news/stephen-strasburg-returning-to-injured-list

[Smithian]

Not good.

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

I'm starting to swing into the "he's cooked" camp 

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

He’s done.

[nfotiu]

Is there any payroll or CBT relief in baseball if he can't come back at all due to long term injury?

Reading about his surgery at the time, it didn't seem like a proven solution to his injury.   I feel bad for him, but it always seemed like a bit of a hail mary.

[bluestreak]

This is going to be the worst contract in baseball history. And completely foreseeable. 

[DPMOmaha]

Damn. That sucks...

[UMDNats]

The guy's last hurrah was winning Game 6 of the World Series. Thanks Stras

an all-time great nat

[RobDibblesGhost]

See you in 2023

If we're lucky.

[Five Banners]

The guy's last hurrah was winning Game 7 of the World Series. Thanks Stras

Game six

[UMDNats]

Game six

fixed thanks.

[Kevrock]

Man this is just like OOTP. Dude is hard-coded in that game to get re-injured as soon as he returns.

[skippy1999]

I'm surprised anyone is surprised.