Author Topic: ZiPs 2022  (Read 382 times)

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: ZiPs 2022
« Topic Start: January 14, 2022, 09:06:38 AM »
Clearly means:

- Franco 1.5 WAR

- Kieboom -.2 WAR

quite the opposite.  Kieboom 1.3, Franco 0.  Considering that playing every day is worth 2.0 fWAR, and that the defensive adjustment for 3rd base is plus 2.5 runs (or 1/4 WAR), that still is a below average presence.  Franco is the classic replacement player in this projection.  Literally a guy you can pick up off the street and just pay MLB minimum to fill in a spot in the lineup.

As for the Kieboom projection, .238 / .338 / .388, with an OPS+ of 92 and 14 HRs, my initial instinct was to take the under on homers, big time, but then I saw he had 6 HRs in 249 PAs last year, so 14 HRs might not be a big stretch if he played full time. 10% walk rate sounds right, too.  Basically, the projection systems have him getting back to an average BABIP around .300, a level he easily cleared in the minors at every stop where he had more than 200 PAs until last year.  Not just Fresno, but also Potomac and Harrisburg, which aren't / weren't hitters paradises.

For me, it is kind of head scratching how he looks so bad and performs so bad given the pedigree.  I'd be more surprised if he lived up to the projection line than having him crater, but I can see how a machine would spit out this projection. 

You really do wonder if he's the type of guy that a team might say, "The Nats messed him up but we can help him."