Author Topic: ZiPs 2022  (Read 221 times)

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Offline UMDNats

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Re: ZiPs 2022
« Reply #1: January 13, 2022, 12:09:30 PM »
Kieboom/Franco: 1.3 WAR


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: ZiPs 2022
« Reply #2: January 13, 2022, 01:32:25 PM »
Kieboom/Franco: 1.3 WAR

a/k/a double the projection of Escobar/ Garcia (0.6)

Offline welch

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Re: ZiPs 2022
« Reply #3: January 13, 2022, 08:07:52 PM »
Kieboom/Franco: 1.3 WAR

(Image removed from quote.)

Clearly means:

- Franco 1.5 WAR

- Kieboom -.2 WAR

"The Nats have not handled Kieboom very well". And "Last season, Kieboom could not hit in AAA or MLB", meaning he might be just right for Harrisburg.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: ZiPs 2022
« Reply #4: January 14, 2022, 09:06:38 AM »
Clearly means:

- Franco 1.5 WAR

- Kieboom -.2 WAR

quite the opposite.  Kieboom 1.3, Franco 0.  Considering that playing every day is worth 2.0 fWAR, and that the defensive adjustment for 3rd base is plus 2.5 runs (or 1/4 WAR), that still is a below average presence.  Franco is the classic replacement player in this projection.  Literally a guy you can pick up off the street and just pay MLB minimum to fill in a spot in the lineup.

As for the Kieboom projection, .238 / .338 / .388, with an OPS+ of 92 and 14 HRs, my initial instinct was to take the under on homers, big time, but then I saw he had 6 HRs in 249 PAs last year, so 14 HRs might not be a big stretch if he played full time. 10% walk rate sounds right, too.  Basically, the projection systems have him getting back to an average BABIP around .300, a level he easily cleared in the minors at every stop where he had more than 200 PAs until last year.  Not just Fresno, but also Potomac and Harrisburg, which aren't / weren't hitters paradises.

For me, it is kind of head scratching how he looks so bad and performs so bad given the pedigree.  I'd be more surprised if he lived up to the projection line than having him crater, but I can see how a machine would spit out this projection. 

You really do wonder if he's the type of guy that a team might say, "The Nats messed him up but we can help him."

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: ZiPs 2022
« Reply #5: January 14, 2022, 09:12:12 AM »
oh, and speaking of the ZiPS projections, does it warm the cockles of anyone's heart when you see "Matt Nokes" as the comparable for Ruiz?  Lane Thomas / Ricky Ledee feels right and is fine. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: ZiPs 2022
« Reply #6: January 14, 2022, 09:44:41 AM »
Finally, Dan Sz... posted a comment with Luis GArcia's projected line:
Quote
Luis Garcia’s projection is .270/.308/.440 in 455 AB with 15 HR, for 1.5 WAR. His top offensive comp is Bill Mazeroski (Maz was more promising offensively as a very young player than he turned out to be!)

Were Mitlen around here, he'd smile at the Maz comp.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: ZiPs 2022
« Reply #7: January 14, 2022, 09:58:38 AM »
On a roll here :roll: , but it looks like the 3 areas we could get a quick pick up to more respectable would be a short term shortstop upgrade, another starting pitcher, and a couple of arms in the bullpen.  Add Jimmy Nelson and Rich Rod, maybe a couple of years out of Danny Duffy (or Matt Boyd), and either commit to Garcia or perhaps bring in a Villar or Igelsias, and you don't break the bank to put a more pleasant product on the field.

Offline imref

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Re: ZiPs 2022
« Reply #8: January 14, 2022, 10:47:22 AM »
On a roll here :roll: , but it looks like the 3 areas we could get a quick pick up to more respectable would be a short term shortstop upgrade, another starting pitcher, and a couple of arms in the bullpen.  Add Jimmy Nelson and Rich Rod, maybe a couple of years out of Danny Duffy (or Matt Boyd), and either commit to Garcia or perhaps bring in a Villar or Igelsias, and you don't break the bank to put a more pleasant product on the field.

do we really think Strasburg is a 3.1 player next year?

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: ZiPs 2022
« Reply #9: January 14, 2022, 11:16:31 AM »
do we really think Strasburg is a 3.1 player next year?
No, 5.1!!

Offline imref

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Re: ZiPs 2022
« Reply #10: January 14, 2022, 11:17:45 AM »
No, 5.1!!

you might have the decimal point in the wrong spot.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: ZiPs 2022
« Reply #11: January 14, 2022, 12:23:03 PM »
you might have the decimal point in the wrong spot.
No.  51 is not possible. 

Offline imref

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Re: ZiPs 2022
« Reply #12: January 14, 2022, 01:07:33 PM »
No.  51 is not possible. 

well, he could start every five days, play CF, and close.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: ZiPs 2022
« Reply #13: January 14, 2022, 01:31:35 PM »
On a roll here :roll: , but it looks like the 3 areas we could get a quick pick up to more respectable would be a short term shortstop upgrade, another starting pitcher, and a couple of arms in the bullpen.  Add Jimmy Nelson and Rich Rod, maybe a couple of years out of Danny Duffy (or Matt Boyd), and either commit to Garcia or perhaps bring in a Villar or Igelsias, and you don't break the bank to put a more pleasant product on the field.

Definitely seems like we are planning to add some cheaper vets to fill out the roster now after the CBA that, if you squint, could give us a decent roster, if Corbs and Stras are healty. The bullpen ZIPS projection was so terrible, needs an upgrade of a few arms.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: ZiPs 2022
« Reply #14: January 15, 2022, 08:21:10 PM »
Finally, Dan Sz... posted a comment with Luis GArcia's projected line:
Were Mitlen around here, he'd smile at the Maz comp.

I'm sure I missed it. Where is Mitlen?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: ZiPs 2022
« Reply #15: January 15, 2022, 09:16:07 PM »
I'm sure I missed it. Where is Mitlen?
he's fine, last I heard. VaRK keeps up with him. He walked away from WNFF around the start of the pandemic and has not checked back.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: ZiPs 2022
« Reply #16: January 18, 2022, 01:53:59 PM »
he's fine, last I heard. VaRK keeps up with him. He walked away from WNFF around the start of the pandemic and has not checked back.

Thanks. I'm really glad to hear he's okay. I enjoyed his posts.