2022 NL East

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-philadelphia-phillies/

Early projections for Philly, based on current roster.  Several high level players, but unaddressed holes in CF and LF.  Rotation behind Wheeler and Nola has questions, suggests they need an innings eater to round out Efflin and Suarez.  Thin depth. 

By contrast, it’s harder to admit that a team reliant on just a few players is going to be wildly inconsistent. It’s harder to admit that you’ve been incredibly lax at finding talent at the weaker positions. It’s harder to admit that something is going wrong with your player development process when so few players are becoming real contributors in the majors. It’s harder to make the decision to go through the luxury tax threshold because you didn’t consider that the big, expensive superstars need a good foundation of secondary talent and role players to get you into the playoffs — players you have to pay for if you can’t develop them yourself.

It’s easy to build a .500 team when you’re spending $200 million. Unfortunately, the team is run on easy mode.

Now, perhaps the Phillies add Carlos Rodón, Kris Bryant, and Matthew Boyd after a new CBA is signed and somehow find enough talent to acquire Cedric Mullins or Bryan Reynolds. If that happens, my outlook will have to change; as of right now, let’s call this an 84-win team.

I/M/O, an 84 win projection is a playoff team with a small beat of that getting to 87 wins.  Playoffs is things are good before rosters are set is enviable.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/derek-jeter-steps-down-as-miami-marlins-ceo-sells-stake-in-the-team.html

Derek Jeter is stepping down as chief executive of the Miami Marlins and selling his stake in the Major League Baseball franchise, the Hall of Famer announced Monday.
...
eter, a New York Yankees icon, had a 4% stake in the team and took over its top C-suite role in 2017. The Marlins finished in fourth place in the National League East division last year. The team made the postseason once during Jeter’s tenure, a wild card spot in 2020.

The Marlins are worth $990 million, according to Forbes. But that’s a drop from the estimated $1.2 billion Sherman’s group, which included Jeter, paid for the MLB team in 2017. The team’s valuation fell to $980 million in 2020 before rebounding last year.

[Slateman]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1505034033570455552?s=21

Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Four of 5 teams in the NL East have made major improvements. Real battle going on there.

[rileyn]

I think the Phillies are ahead of the Mets with the signings of Schwarber and Castellanos.

Braves
Phillies
Mets
Nats
Marlins

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I think the Phillies are ahead of the Mets with the signings of Schwarber and Castellanos.

Braves
Phillies
Mets
Nats
Marlins

Why would you have the Nats ahead of the Marlins? 

[rileyn]

Why would you have the Nats ahead of the Marlins? 

Hope springs eternal.

[DPMOmaha]

Phillies are gonna hit a lot of homers. Not sure they’ll do anything else well…

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Phillies are gonna hit a lot of homers. Not sure they’ll do anything else we’ll…

Schwarber has a good arm. I'm sure he'll be able to throw the ball in once it comes to a stop and he catches up to it

[Natsinpwc]

Marlins sign Soler for three years. 

[GNatsNoMore]

Pecota projections are out:

Braves: 91.8 wins

Mets: 91.1 wins

Philllies: 86.4 wins

Marlins: 77.7 wins

Nationals:  70.9 wins

Not a surprise for the Nationals to be rated last, unfortunately.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Pecota projections are out:

Braves: 91.8 wins

Mets: 91.1 wins

Philllies: 86.4 wins

Marlins: 77.7 wins

Nationals:  70.9 wins

Not a surprise for the Nationals to be rated last, unfortunately.

looks credible. Doesn't pecota suppress extreme records? How many teams are projected with > 92 wins or < 70?

[rileyn]

deGrom with shoulder tightness.  Does Max start Opening Day?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

deGrom with shoulder tightness.  Does Max start Opening Day?

I honestly hope that deGrom is not in the break down period of his career.  It's fun to watch a guy that good.  I do wonder if anyone is going to be able to pitch as often above 100 MPH as he has the past couple of years and last.  I realize the "he started late so he hasn't burned through his bullets" argument, but at any age, whether your Mike Kopech or deGrom, you can only maintain that level for a limited amount of time.

[UMDNats]

I honestly hope that deGrom is not in the break down period of his career.  It's fun to watch a guy that good.  I do wonder if anyone is going to be able to pitch as often above 100 MPH as he has the past couple of years and last.  I realize the "he started late so he hasn't burned through his bullets" argument, but at any age, whether your Mike Kopech or deGrom, you can only maintain that level for a limited amount of time.

one thing that makes max so unique in the current era of MLB pitchers is that he's been doing this for 14 years. He's going to get 200 wins, but who is the young pitcher who will be durable like that again? Seems like we're going to get a generation of starters who max at 150 wins or so if they're lucky and have 5-6 years of peak before falling apart.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Scherzer never averaged above 95.  Career  average of 93.8, but no tail off to speak of in his velo. In fact, averaged between 94.2 to 94.9 since 2015.  I think guys can cruise for years around 94, maybe up to 96, but once you get to the 100s, I doubt that can be maintained. 

[Natsinpwc]

Scherzer never averaged above 95.  Career  average of 93.8, but no tail off to speak of in his velo. In fact, averaged between 94.2 to 94.9 since 2015.  I think guys can cruise for years around 94, maybe up to 96, but once you get to the 100s, I doubt that can be maintained.

Nolan Ryan I believe was the one exception. He had some sort of bionic arm.

[Dave in Fairfax]

deGrom with shoulder tightness.  Does Max start Opening Day?

deGrom "shut down for at least a month" according to Jeff Passan.

[GataNats]

DeGrom was a 92-94 guy until he hit 30.   He clearly has been juicing for the past 4 years

[imref]

deGrom "shut down for at least a month" according to Jeff Passan.

Stress reaction in his right scapula. Expected to miss a “significant” amount of time

[Natsinpwc]

DeGrom was a 92-94 guy until he hit 30.   He clearly has been juicing for the past 4 years

Blood doping.

I think he probably found a way to pitch through the discomfort that comes when you max out for more than one inning. And now it catches up with him.

If Max has really hit a wall as it appears he might have end of next year this will really be a #soMets season.

[UMDNats]

rumors that max has a hamstring injury. hate to see it but mostly, you love to see it

[JCA-CrystalCity]

rumors that max has a hamstring injury. hate to see it but mostly, you love to see it

so you are saying we might get through April in 4th, not 5th?

[KnorrForYourMoney]

looks credible. Doesn't pecota suppress extreme records? How many teams are projected with > 92 wins or < 70?

By design, it tends to.  It basically generates a bell curve of expected outcomes, so you get very few final projections of ~100 wins or losses.

Although glancing over this year's standings, it appears as if they've adjusted the system over the years.  It used to be a lot stingier about projecting more than 92 wins or losses.  Now the standings/records look more or less like what you'd expect at the end of a typical regular season.

[Slateman]

rumors that max has a hamstring injury. hate to see it but mostly, you love to see it

https://mobile.twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1510024837414199298?s=21&t=i9z82fEM6NaQqFZyHikGjQ

Heyman confirms

[welch]

deGrom out for at least four weeks with "stress reaction in right shoulder".

https://www.mlb.com/news/jacob-degrom-to-miss-opening-day

And if the Nats had re-signed Max, as they should have...