Where do we go from here?

[Rosewood]

So, we've heard in the past the Nats can't sign our key free agents because it would hamstring them from signing other impact players, and hurt the team.  So, instead, we have been the farm team for the MLB by letting some of the best players in baseball go to other teams.   And the result is, we are no longer competitive.   So, what is our overall strategy? 

[varoadking]

[UMDNats]

I'm not sure what world you live in to think we have been the farm team for MLB.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

This thread will focus on direction / strategy rather than individual moves.   I may merge it into the general off-season thread at some point, but for now, that one seems to focus on individual trades and signings.

[Natsinpwc]

I just watched that for the first time. It’s on Netflix. 

[English Natsie]

The way things are looking, for the forseeable, probably kicking and screaming to the asylum...

[varoadking]

I just watched that for the first time. It’s on Netflix.

One of my all time favorites...

[JCA-CrystalCity]

since this thread I think conceptually is about longer term roster structure than what is the particular move we are doing for 2022 in this offseason, I figured this Post article belongs more here than in the offseason moves or the 2022 looking ahead thread. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/11/27/nationals-prospects-franchise-rebuild/

Seems Cluff may figure in their pre-House plans at SS.  Also Evan Lee as a rotation piece.  Antuna mentioned. But the main prospects of course are the 3 pitchers - Cavalli, Rutledge, and Henry.  Breaks the top 10 or so prospects into the near term batch and the longer term batch, with the nearer term batch proving themselves over the next year or so in the high minors and majors, and the longer term basically not really helping in what I'll call the Soto era (through '24).

Rizzo:

“You saw what we did the last time we rebuilt this thing into a championship organization [from 2009 to a division title in 2012]. … When our young players came to fruition and we became a really good team, we went out and made some impactful major league signings. And I think that’s the best way to kind of combine the two: Grow your own, develop your own guys, and when they become ready for impacting the big leagues, then you go out and get your guys to finish it out.”

Five acquisitions have spots on the roster, including Mason Thompson, Adams, and Thomas (going with Gray and Ruiz).

“We had reboot in mind at the trade deadline,” Rizzo told The Washington Post at the GM meetings. “You could see that because we didn’t gather a bunch of 17-, 18-year-olds — you know, high-ceiling guys. [Right-hander] Aldo Ramirez was 20, but we otherwise went for players we thought could get to the majors fairly quickly. And we wanted to mix them in with the 22-, 23-year-olds we already have who could help us up there soon.”

Of course, his version of "reboot" is a bit different from what I thought that meant.  Reboot would have implied a more aggressive approach to free agency, but it is pretty clear that Rizzo intends to be passive in that area until at least a few more of the guys who did not end the season on the 25 man roster are MLB contributors, and there's a verdict on Garcia and Kieboom as well.

The longer term for the most part are the 20 (Aldo Ramirez), or 18 and younger (House, Lara, Cruz, Lile).  These guys fill our our top 10, plus Gerardo Carillo.  OTOH, Cluff and Lee are around #20. 

[nfotiu]

I'd like to hear Rizzo's long term plan for pitching.   In all of baseball, there are now probably less than 40 starting pitchers that have a reasonable chance of even going 5 innings every 5 games.   It's not realistic to strive to have more than 1-2 good starting pitchers, which means the successful teams the last couple years are the ones with lots of quality 1-3 inning guys.   Rizzo has never really prioritized a deep bullpen, especially in the offseason.   I don't think we can compete if he is hoping and praying for prospects to turn into starters and Stras and Corbin coming back strong, and not looking at building a strong bullpen.   Rizzo's comments about bullpen pitchers just being failed starters struck me that he is not keeping up with how the game is changing.  He won a world series with 3 aces at probably the very end of the era where that is possible, and I'm worried he's going to have some confirmation bias that this is still a good strategy.  For the record, I hate this direction that MLB is going, but I do think we need some real depth of pitching now that the majority of starters don't see a lineup for a 3rd time.

[DPMOmaha]

I'd suggest enjoying the holidays. Nothing's happening before then anyway.

[imref]

I'd like to hear Rizzo's long term plan for pitching.   In all of baseball, there are now probably less than 40 starting pitchers that have a reasonable chance of even going 5 innings every 5 games.   It's not realistic to strive to have more than 1-2 good starting pitchers, which means the successful teams the last couple years are the ones with lots of quality 1-3 inning guys.   Rizzo has never really prioritized a deep bullpen, especially in the offseason.   I don't think we can compete if he is hoping and praying for prospects to turn into starters and Stras and Corbin coming back strong, and not looking at building a strong bullpen.   Rizzo's comments about bullpen pitchers just being failed starters struck me that he is not keeping up with how the game is changing.  He won a world series with 3 aces at probably the very end of the era where that is possible, and I'm worried he's going to have some confirmation bias that this is still a good strategy.  For the record, I hate this direction that MLB is going, but I do think we need some real depth of pitching now that the majority of starters don't see a lineup for a 3rd time.

My guess:
2022: Strasburg, Gray, Corbin, Fedde, and one low cost 1 year rental, with Lara as the #6 until Ross is back sometime late in the year or Cavalli is up

2023: Strasburg, Gray, Corbin, Cavalli, and one of Ross, Rutledge, Lara, & Cate

So much of this team's immediate future is tied to Strasburg.

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

The TB Rays seem to be on to something...

[Count Walewski]

The Nationals are doing nothing new or original right now. Look at the Braves, the Astros, the Cubs, and, indeed, the Rizzo-led Nationals prior to 2012 as franchises that have won the World Series through tanking. The team is intentionally bad right now with the intention of stockpiling several years of high draft picks that will hopefully turn into future superstar players. The team is intentionally not signing free agents because doing so would cause the team to be mediocre rather than bad, and baseball rewards bad put punishes mediocre.

Nationals might have a smaller rebuild time than the other teams I cited because they traded away their superstars for guys like Josiah Gray who are closer to the majors than the early rebuild pieces of those franchises. But it's the same general principle. I would have frankly been disappointed with the Nationals for making a big FA signing this offseason.

[Natsinpwc]

The Nationals are doing nothing new or original right now. Look at the Braves, the Astros, the Cubs, and, indeed, the Rizzo-led Nationals prior to 2012 as franchises that have won the World Series through tanking. The team is intentionally bad right now with the intention of stockpiling several years of high draft picks that will hopefully turn into future superstar players. The team is intentionally not signing free agents because doing so would cause the team to be mediocre rather than bad, and baseball rewards bad put punishes mediocre.

Nationals might have a smaller rebuild time than the other teams I cited because they traded away their superstars for guys like Josiah Gray who are closer to the majors than the early rebuild pieces of those franchises. But it's the same general principle. I would have frankly been disappointed with the Nationals for making a big FA signing this offseason.

Problem is lots of other teams have been tanking now or in the past and have not achieved results. Royals. Pirates. Phillies. The top of the MLB draft is a crap shoot. They came up with Strasburg, Harper and Rendon previously. The odds of replicating that are low. Based on where they are they do need to restock the farm system. They should be focused on one year contract guys who can be flipped. 

[varoadking]

You saw what we did the last time we rebuilt this thing into a championship organization [from 2009 to a division title in 2012.

So a playoff berth is Rizzo's benchmark for a Championship season? That is 4 years away by his comparison here... 

Sounds legit...that last part anyway...

[nfotiu]

My guess:
2022: Strasburg, Gray, Corbin, Fedde, and one low cost 1 year rental, with Lara as the #6 until Ross is back sometime late in the year or Cavalli is up

2023: Strasburg, Gray, Corbin, Cavalli, and one of Ross, Rutledge, Lara, & Cate

So much of this team's immediate future is tied to Strasburg.

That is all fine and realistic to what this team can count on for starters, but that's going to leave a lot of innings for bullpens and I wish Rizzo would prioritize building that bullpen out.   It is a lot more realistic to build depth with quality bullpen guys than starting pitchers now.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

That is all fine and realistic to what this team can count on for starters, but that's going to leave a lot of innings for bullpens and I wish Rizzo would prioritize building that bullpen out.   It is a lot more realistic to build depth with quality bullpen guys than starting pitchers now.

you know, if he really went old school, guys like Cavalli and Rutledge would pitch a year or two out of the pen as multi-inning guys before moving into the rotation. Unfortunately, with free agency after 6 years, this approach is less viable because you have good arms for limited time. You almost need to make the starter or reliever decision by AA/AAA so you don't waste MLB clock. 

Also, in the future speculation, you don't see much mention of Adon.