2021-2022 Offseason Discussion/Signings/Trades/Rumors

[zimm_da_kid]

I’m not counting on every wild card we have working out. 

If one of Robles/kieboom/Garcia take the next step and become a slightly above average player that makes a big difference.  Robles only needs to bat .250 to be a 2+ war player.

If one of gray/Adon can have an era in the high 3s that makes a difference.

If one of Rogers/Espino can have a mid 4s era, that makes a difference.

Lane was  always a well regarded prospect so I think the chance of him being at least an average player is strong given his performance last year.  Will he have an ops+ of 133 like he did with us?  Probably not, but that’s ok.  If he can provide an ops+ of 105-110 that is big.

Keibert is an elite prospect who has shown elite bat to ball skills in the majors now.  He’s a likely .260+ hitter next year with 15+ homers, and minimal strikeouts.  If the season started today he’d be our 5 hitter behind bell. 

Garcia walked and struck out at better rates this past year while showing more power, likely due to lifting the ball more and pulling it more.  He’s young.  Young players improve. 

We have enough wild cards here with reasons to be hopeful for each of them.we don’t need to hit on all of them.  We just need versatile guys like josh Harrison to pick up the slack for whoever isn’t cutting it by Memorial Day. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The way I look at it, there's no infield prospects who should be contributors before House.  Anything else is a maybe or a lucky break.  But what I take from that is that's there's no one to be concerned about blocking.  There's also a ton of budget flexibility.  There's no reason not to sign some short term help for a couple of positions (1 OF and 1 IF) that could potentially be flipped, and, if for some crazy reason Story wants to talk to you, commit to a multi-year contract to add another piece to Soto / Ruiz for 2023 /24.  As for pitching, I'd try for 2 starters, at least one among the Gray / Descalfini / Wood level, and one bullpen arm.  I'd hope to convince Hudson to return.  At that point, maybe it is just a 75 win team before a deadline break up, and if you get anything at all in the way of pleasant surprises, there might be a bit more.

[imref]

The way I look at it, there's no infield prospects who should be contributors before House.  Anything else is a maybe or a lucky break.  But what I take from that is that's there's no one to be concerned about blocking. 

What about Garcia?  House is at least 2-3 years away in a best case scenario.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I’m not counting on every wild card we have working out. 

If one of Robles/kieboom/Garcia take the next step and become a slightly above average player that makes a big difference.  Robles only needs to bat .250 to be a 2+ war player.

If one of gray/Adon can have an era in the high 3s that makes a difference.

If one of Rogers/Espino can have a mid 4s era, that makes a difference.

Lane was  always a well regarded prospect so I think the chance of him being at least an average player is strong given his performance last year.  Will he have an ops+ of 133 like he did with us?  Probably not, but that’s ok.  If he can provide an ops+ of 105-110 that is big.

Keibert is an elite prospect who has shown elite bat to ball skills in the majors now.  He’s a likely .260+ hitter next year with 15+ homers, and minimal strikeouts.  If the season started today he’d be our 5 hitter behind bell. 

Garcia walked and struck out at better rates this past year while showing more power, likely due to lifting the ball more and pulling it more.  He’s young.  Young players improve. 

We have enough wild cards here with reasons to be hopeful for each of them.we don’t need to hit on all of them.  We just need versatile guys like josh Harrison to pick up the slack for whoever isn’t cutting it by Memorial Day.

Young players do improve, but not enough of them improve enough to matter.  Specifically, the "hit rate" of improvements you noted above yields a terrible team even if you do sign Schwarber or Bryant (and why would either of them sign with a team this bad?).  And pretty much every team has a pile of will-he/won't-he type dudes like those listed above (Ruiz excepted, who is as you note a top prospect fairly certain to do a decent job, at least with the bat).

Difference is, those teams are sitting pretty if even one or two of that type of guys turns into a hit.   You're ignoring again that the 2021 Nats DID have several guys vastly overachieve after the deadline:  Thomas, Espino, Escobar, for example.  And the team was still a rancid rotting carcass that wouldn't be guaranteed to be especially good in a AAA league. 

And again: defense.  The current roster (if Thomas plays instead of Robles) might be the worst defensive team in the majors.  You can't go into the season with a defense that bad and expect it not to make things worse for a pitching staff that already reeks.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

What about Garcia?  House is at least 2-3 years away in a best case scenario.

Garcia is a maybe.  I expect him to be OK. Of the 3 infielders penciled in a 2nd, 3rd, and SS, he's the one I think that's most likely to work out.  But I think he's a long way from being more than a league average guy.  Kieboom I think more is in the lucky break category if he pans out.

[Slateman]

I’m not counting on every wild card we have working out. 

If one of Robles/kieboom/Garcia take the next step and become a slightly above average player that makes a big difference.  Robles only needs to bat .250 to be a 2+ war player.

If one of gray/Adon can have an era in the high 3s that makes a difference.

If one of Rogers/Espino can have a mid 4s era, that makes a difference.

Lane was  always a well regarded prospect so I think the chance of him being at least an average player is strong given his performance last year.  Will he have an ops+ of 133 like he did with us?  Probably not, but that’s ok.  If he can provide an ops+ of 105-110 that is big.

Keibert is an elite prospect who has shown elite bat to ball skills in the majors now.  He’s a likely .260+ hitter next year with 15+ homers, and minimal strikeouts.  If the season started today he’d be our 5 hitter behind bell. 

Garcia walked and struck out at better rates this past year while showing more power, likely due to lifting the ball more and pulling it more.  He’s young.  Young players improve. 

We have enough wild cards here with reasons to be hopeful for each of them.we don’t need to hit on all of them.  We just need versatile guys like josh Harrison to pick up the slack for whoever isn’t cutting it by Memorial Day. 

The problem is that wild cards have a small chance of happening and you are asking for multiple wild cards to hit in order to even be in a position where a Kris Bryant and Robbie Ray will get this team to the playoffs.

First wild card: Strasburg and Corbin have to contribute. This right here is a huge one. Even before TOS, Strasburg wasn't reliable. And we're now entering the point in Corbin's career where you would have expected significant drop off. The chances of these guys giving you the equivalent of 350 innings of 4.25 ERA pitching (or better) is already pretty low.

Kieboom is the next biggest wild card. Pretty low percentage he becomes a capable MLB player at this point. To achieve 2+ WAR status he would probably have to have an OPS north of .800.

Robles: Better chance but still not really great.

Lane Thomas was never projected as more than a platoon starter/4th OFer on a good team. Its why the Cards gave him up. Of everyone talked about, I'm expecting significant regression from him. He was already coming back down to earth at the end of last season.

Keibert Ruiz was an elite prospect ... for a catcher. He certainly did not demonstrate elite bat to ball skills at the MLB level last season. He is still young and playing the most difficult position on the field. That youth will also affect the young pitching staff (which we will get to).

Your plan also hinges on Josh Harrison and Alciedes Escobar performing like they did last season. Quite frankly, that's a long shot. Both will be 35 next year. Both just had the best season they've had in years. Expecting them to repeat it is asking for a lot. And, frankly, their seasons were only average/slightly above average. Neither of them are bats to fear or be concerned about in the line up.

Now the pitching. Adon isn't going to be ready. You're reading far too much into one start against a team that simply DGAF. He threw all of five innings. Gray is also young and needs significant development. Neither Cavali or Cole is going to be ready for MLB innings next spring either. And young pitchers usually take time to reach their potential. Robbie Ray is a perfect example.  Betting on young pitchers will disappoint you every time. And that's frankly what we have to have in order to succeed. You've got 75 million a year invested in two guys who will likely end up being 4/5 level of performance. You need your young, cost controlled guys to make up that difference. And that's asking a lot.

Rogers and Espino posting mid 4 ERAs ... eh, doable, but I also don't think they will make it a full season.

The bullpen is straight up garbage. The only guys worth keeping are Finnegan and Rainey. Everyone else is fodder. Harris also had TOS, so it will take a minor miracle for him to return to form. And even if he does, this team still needs a closer and a serviceable lefty reliever.


You may not need all of these "wild cards" to hit, but you need a significant number of them. And Rizzo has to convince the Lerners that they will happen in order to justify dropping 200+ million on a Kris Bryant and another 130 million for a starting pitcher you need. Which is why, ultimately, they won't. You might get a Schwarber signing, but the Nats will look at short team deals with guys like Rosario, Matz, Wood, or Escobar. If they do one or two of these and all their wild cards hit (or the majority do), then Rizzo is in a nice position to make a couple moves at the deadline. Otherwise, he has some nice pieces to trade off to a team looking to make their own run.

[imref]

Gotta hand it to Slate, that's a solid take ^^^^

[Natsinpwc]

Gotta hand it to Slate, that's a solid take ^^^^

Yea it is. I think the question is how many long term contracts do you want to lock yourselves into while rebuilding and before you have a better idea where your young players stand. Other than Soto of course.  Regardless of the Lerners willingness to spend this is a retool year and see Rizzo looking for bargains and players willing to take one year deals where he can flip guys for more prospects if the Nats are not in the race. So someone like Harrison is a possibility but probably not Schwarber. Need to find this year’s Schwarber. Not the last one.

[Slateman]

Yea it is. I think the question is how many long term contracts do you want to lock yourselves into while rebuilding and before you have a better idea where your young players stand. Other than Soto of course.  Regardless of the Lerners willingness to spend this is a retool year and see Rizzo looking for bargains and players willing to take one year deals where he can flip guys for more prospects if the Nats are not in the race. So someone like Harrison is a possibility but probably not Schwarber. Need to find this year’s Schwarber. Not the last one.

So this is where you have to be judicious and why I dont really want any of them.

The only real options for me were Eduardo Rodriguez and Corey Seager. E-Rod is gone. Seager will probably have to move to third in a few years.

[aspenbubba]

What about Schwarber, Eduardo Escobar and Harrison for position players. Get a legit closer and a set-up guy when either Harris , Finnegan or Rainey crap out. I still think we need two SP's and I'm not comfortable choosing which ones I would pursue. This gives us a competitive team that could win 75-80 games while letting the young players develop in Rochester.

Scwarber could spell Bell at first and Alcides could be the utility IF. Robles or Thomas in CF and 4th OF. There are enough RP on the 40 man that Rizzo only needs to pick up two in FA or another teams DFA's to fill the back half of the 'pen. Didn't one of the play-off teams follow that formula (Braves)?
 

[Slateman]

What does it matter if you win 75-80 games?

[aspenbubba]

What does it matter if you win 75-80 games?

Don't lose fan interest  if there is a season.

[Slateman]

Don't lose fan interest  if there is a season.

Its DC. They'll come rushing back when the team is good, pretending they were there all along

[welch]

Just add 60 million AAV in payroll, and still not have a full rotation or a bullpen worth a crap?

Add Matz for two or three years. Gray plus Stroman and Matz make up the core of a rotation. With luck in some of Strassburg and Corbin, the Nats can avoid dead pitchers like Fedde, and random luck like Rogers, and will not have to wait for Joe Ross to, perhaps, come around from whatever arm injury he's got. Find relief pitchers the same place the Nats always do, but not from a high-priced shiny superstar. Are there many superstar relief pitchers?

Maybe Cavalli and Henry, or Adon, all turn into the next Jordan Zimmermann. That's all a "maybe", and they are a year or two even from being rookies.

The point to baseball is to win. Not to tank every season or to "flip" players for prospects for the next five or ten years. And not to see how far below the luxury tax the Nats can get.

There are clear holes in the team, and the biggest has been third. Nobody in the minors plays third, and, finally, it is time to avoid depending on Kieboom.

Schwarber? Look at the system, again. There are no outfielders, either. Casey clonked when he got to Rochester, so he his no more a sure-thing than Kieboom or Robles. 

If this is wrong, then trade Soto now. Get two players and prospects.

[sixthree175]

So this is where you have to be judicious and why I dont really want any of them.

The only real options for me were Eduardo Rodriguez and Corey Seager. E-Rod is gone. Seager will probably have to move to third in a few years.

I've already written off 2022.  Only sign players who can be flipped at the trading deadline.  Consider trading Soto at the deadline if he cannot be re-signed by then.  Consider trading Corbin at the deadline if he performs reasonably well in the first half of the season.  Same for Strasburg (if he plays at all in the first half).   

[Slateman]

Add Matz for two or three years. Gray plus Stroman and Matz make up the core of a rotation. With luck in some of Strassburg and Corbin, the Nats can avoid dead pitchers like Fedde, and random luck like Rogers, and will not have to wait for Joe Ross to, perhaps, come around from whatever arm injury he's got. Find relief pitchers the same place the Nats always do, but not from a high-priced shiny superstar. Are there many superstar relief pitchers?

Maybe Cavalli and Henry, or Adon, all turn into the next Jordan Zimmermann. That's all a "maybe", and they are a year or two even from being rookies.

The point to baseball is to win. Not to tank every season or to "flip" players for prospects for the next five or ten years. And not to see how far below the luxury tax the Nats can get.

There are clear holes in the team, and the biggest has been third. Nobody in the minors plays third, and, finally, it is time to avoid depending on Kieboom.

Schwarber? Look at the system, again. There are no outfielders, either. Casey clonked when he got to Rochester, so he his no more a sure-thing than Kieboom or Robles. 

If this is wrong, then trade Soto now. Get two players and prospects.

Thats 35 million added payroll just to hope the 34 year old, perennially injured pitcher will come back and be healthy and effectice, while the 33 year old coming off back to back career worst seasons will suddenly not suck.

Thats a terrible strategy and exactly how teams end up like the Angels.

There is nothing ready for the MLBZ level. Bite the bullet, suck for another season, develop the talent, and see what you have this season.

No one has the prospects to give you what Soto is worth. Theres no reason to think about trading hin until the 2023 deadline

[Slateman]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1461842320500871177?s=21

Clint Frazier is intriguing. Tyler Wade could probably be a decent utility infielder too

[sixthree175]

No one has the prospects to give you what Soto is worth. There's no reason to think about trading him until the 2023 deadline

It can be a combination of prospects and established players (not too old).  You don't know what you can get for him until you shop him around.  I think he needs to be re-signed immediately, otherwise he's going to wait until free agency.

[Elvir Ovcina]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1461842320500871177?s=21

Clint Frazier is intriguing. Tyler Wade could probably be a decent utility infielder too

Frazier is exactly the type of guy they should be targeting.  He can hit (at least when he's not injured), he's never gotten a decent run of at bats and isn't old, he has multiple years of service time, and if he does get injured, so what? 

It can be a combination of prospects and established players (not too old).  You don't know what you can get for him until you shop him around.  I think he needs to be re-signed immediately, otherwise he's going to wait until free agency.

Naw, Slate's pretty much right with this one.  If you're trading Soto, you're giving up on the next three years.  Players who are already in the majors aren't right for that rebuild timeline.   The only way it might work to do that is if you were to line up a flip to a third team ahead of time for yet more prospects.

[Slateman]

It can be a combination of prospects and established players (not too old).  You don't know what you can get for him until you shop him around.  I think he needs to be re-signed immediately, otherwise he's going to wait until free agency.

If you're dealing Soto, all you want back are prospect who will be ready when the rest of this team's talent is ready. Which probably wont be until 2024 or 2025. By then, House will be ready for the big leagues, Ruiz will be a veteran catcher, and all our young pitching prospects should have subtantial innings and any UCL injuries out of the way.

Soto needed to be extended in 2019. Its already too late. Boras is going to take him to free agency, or at the very least, get full market value

[Slateman]

Frazier is exactly the type of guy they should be targeting.  He can hit (at least when he's not injured), he's never gotten a decent run of at bats and isn't old, he has multiple years of service time, and if he does get injured, so what? 

Naw, Slate's pretty much right with this one.  If you're trading Soto, you're giving up on the next three years.  Players who are already in the majors aren't right for that rebuild timeline.   The only way it might work to do that is if you were to line up a flip to a third team ahead of time for yet more prospects.

The only concern about Frazier is a nagging head injury

[zimm_da_kid]

Only teams that could trade for Soto would be Mariners, Padres, dodgers, or Yankees

Mariners: Julio Rodriguez/Kirby/Hancock/ty France gets it STARTED
Padres: Cronenworth/Abrams/Gore/Campusano gets it STARTED
Dodgers:  Cartaya/pepiot/Busch/Miller/bellinger as a bounce back
Yankees: Volpe/Dominguez/Gil/Pereira gets it STARTED

[UMDNats]

It can be a combination of prospects and established players (not too old).  You don't know what you can get for him until you shop him around.  I think he needs to be re-signed immediately, otherwise he's going to wait until free agency.

Yeah both these guys should be targets. Should just work out a deal with the Yankees for both.

[Lintyfresh85]

Nats need to put a claim in on Clint Frazier. If he's healthy and recovered from vertigo you've got a cost controlled slugger from the right side that could fill LF for years to come. If he's not healthy, you cut him loose. A no lose proportion.

[Slateman]

Nats need to put a claim in on Clint Frazier. If he's healthy and recovered from vertigo you've got a cost controlled slugger from the right side that could fill LF for years to come. If he's not healthy, you cut him loose. A no lose proportion.

I want Wade too.