2021-2022 Offseason Discussion/Signings/Trades/Rumors

[Slateman]

What about Carlos Martinez on a one year deal?

[Elvir Ovcina]

What about Carlos Martinez on a one year deal?

There are worse lottery tickets, especially because he's proven he can be useful in the bullpen if he's too broken-down to start.  Dude hasn't been an effective starter in a while, but he'd be competing for spots with guys who haven't been effective starters in ever.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Nick Castellanos opts out of the remaining 2 years/ $34 million on his deal with the Reds.

We can dream right?

well, heck, if you are dreaming that much, dream about him playing adequate defense at 3rd for you.

[imref]

well, heck, if you are dreaming that much, dream about him playing adequate defense at 3rd for you.

he hasn't played 3rd since 2017. In the unlikely chance we sign him, it would be Jayson Werth 2.0, Werth was actually a year older when we signed him. Put Castellanos in LF or move Soto to left and play Castellanos in RF

So you go into 2022 with (assuming no DH):

1. Robles/Thomas (R)
2. Soto (L)
3. Castellanos (R)
4. Bell (S)
5. Ruiz (S)
6. Escobar (R)
7. Garcia (L)
8. Kieboom (R)

That's not terrible......

[JCA-CrystalCity]

he hasn't played 3rd since 2017. In the unlikely chance we sign him, it would be Jayson Werth 2.0, Werth was actually a year older when we signed him. Put Castellanos in LF or move Soto to left and play Castellanos in RF

So you go into 2022 with (assuming no DH):

1. Robles/Thomas (R)
2. Soto (L)
3. Castellanos (R)
4. Bell (S)
5. Ruiz (S)
6. Escobar (R)
7. Garcia (L)
8. Kieboom (R)

That's not terrible......

oh, yah, I was only dreaming.  If Castellanos felt comfortable opting out of 2 years, $34 million, then I don't think the Nats will get into a bidding war that goes much higher or longer than that.  He's also probably going to be offered a QO, so it will be a draft pick hit. 

[zimm_da_kid]

Gimme clipp

[Slateman]

oh, yah, I was only dreaming.  If Castellanos felt comfortable opting out of 2 years, $34 million, then I don't think the Nats will get into a bidding war that goes much higher or longer than that.  He's also probably going to be offered a QO, so it will be a draft pick hit. 

Yep. I gotta think that any free agent that will force a draft pick forfeiture is off the table for the Nats. And for good reason.

[aspenbubba]

he hasn't played 3rd since 2017. In the unlikely chance we sign him, it would be Jayson Werth 2.0, Werth was actually a year older when we signed him. Put Castellanos in LF or move Soto to left and play Castellanos in RF

So you go into 2022 with (assuming no DH):

1. Robles/Thomas (R)
2. Soto (L)
3. Castellanos (R)
4. Bell (S)
5. Ruiz (S)
6. Escobar (R)
7. Garcia (L)
8. Kieboom (R)

That's not terrible......

Any line up with KieBUST is terrible

[imref]

Any line up with KieBUST is terrible

Yeah, you probably find an inanimate carbon rod to play 3rd as an upgrade, but a lineup with Castellanos batting 3rd is a pretty massive upgrade even with his awful defense.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Harrison makes so much sense here.

[hotshot]

Nats claim Francisco Perez (24 yo) from Indians. Good numbers in AA and AAA this year for Cleveland; less good in his ML work. McG to Rochester.

[welch]

Nats claim Francisco Perez (24 yo) from Indians. Good numbers in AA and AAA this year for Cleveland; less good in his ML work. McG to Rochester.

A bit more on Perez: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/11/05/nationals-claim-francisco-perez-waivers/

Of the waiver pickups, Mike Ford should be the next to be removed from the 40-man. He was terrible.

[zimm_da_kid]

Nats claim Francisco Perez (24 yo) from Indians. Good numbers in AA and AAA this year for Cleveland; less good in his ML work. McG to Rochester.

Apparently he’s got two option years left as well.  Very good pick up

[Natsinpwc]

Apparently he’s got two option years left as well.  Very good pick up

You guys are easily excited.

https://www.prospects1500.com/al-central/indians/cleveland-indians-2021-midseason-top-50-prospects/

Edit. In looking at his Triple A numbers he had 36 Ks in 26 innings. Which is nice. However 20
Walks and 20 hits over that time. Wonder what his stuff is like.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=perez-018fra

[JCA-CrystalCity]

MLB.com - Who got qualifying offers, and who didn't?
November 7th, 2021

Neither DeScalfini nor Alex Wood received QOs.  Chris Taylor did, as did Syndergaard and Conforto, Eddie Rodriguez, and Castellanos, among the names we've talked about. 

No QOs for:

Athletics: Mark Canha
Blue Jays: Steven Matz
Brewers: Avisaíl García
Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw
Giants: Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood
Padres: Tommy Pham
Rockies: Jon Gray
Twins: Michael Pineda, Andrelton Simmons
White Sox: Carlos Rodón

I'd kick the tires on the italicized

Penalty for the Nats for signing a player who rejects his QO is:

All other teams will lose their second-highest selection in the following year's Draft, as well as $500,000 from their international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If one of these teams signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest remaining pick and an additional $500,000.

[UMDNats]

Canha and Gray definitely seem like decent enough targets.

[Natsinpwc]

Predictions

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/top-50-mlb-free-agent-rankings.html#comments

[Slateman]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/

Fangraphs posted their top 50.

I would take Castellanos or Schwarber at either of their estimated contracts.

[Slateman]

Predictions

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/top-50-mlb-free-agent-rankings.html#comments

15.  Kyle Schwarber.  Four years, $70MM.
TD: Rockies / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Nationals

26.  Alex Wood.  Three years, $30MM.
TD: Mariners / SA: Nationals / AF: Twins

27.  Steven Matz.  Three years, $27MM.
TD: Red Sox / SA: Angels / AF: Nationals

35.  Eduardo Escobar.  Two years, $20MM.
TD: Nationals / SA: White Sox / AF: Blue Jays

40.  Zack Greinke.  One year, $15MM.
TD: Nationals / SA: Cardinals / AF: Red Sox

41.  Eddie Rosario.  Two years, $15MM.
TD: Nationals / SA: Braves / AF: Braves

50.  Andrew Heaney.  One year, $6MM.
TD: Cardinals / SA: Nationals / AF: Pirates

[JCA-CrystalCity]

by those predictions, less than $45MM AAV could make for a nice line up and pitching staff (Wood, Greinke, Escobar, Rosario).  That would put the team in the neighborhood of $120 million next year. Gray or DeScalfini would be alternatives to Greinke, Matz or Heaney would be an alternative to Wood.  I'd think Harrison would be an alternative to Escobar, maybe preferred at a lower cost. 

[Natsinpwc]

by those predictions, less than $45MM AAV could make for a nice line up and pitching staff (Wood, Greinke, Escobar, Rosario).  That would put the team in the neighborhood of $120 million next year. Gray or DeScalfini would be alternatives to Greinke, Matz or Heaney would be an alternative to Wood.  I'd think Harrison would be an alternative to Escobar, maybe preferred at a lower cost.

I see about $90 million here.  Plus $45 would be $135?  Plus you still need to fill the pen with some other arms. 

EDIT:  Forgot the link. 

Actually they are already showing AAV and benefits of $133 million.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/payroll/

[Slateman]

Meh, pass on Grienke and Escobar. Grienke is done. I'd rather take a shot on Heaney, or go with Matz or Wood.

Escobar is 33. No reason to invest that many years in a 33 year old who will regress.

[varoadking]

Actually they are already showing AAV and benefits of $133 million.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/payroll/

Half of that is tied up in 3 players who won't contribute one whit to the team in 2022.  Too bad you can't void contracts as part of the new CBA...

[HondoKillebrew]

Meh, pass on Grienke and Escobar. Grienke is done. I'd rather take a shot on Heaney, or go with Matz or Wood.

Escobar is 33. No reason to invest that many years in a 33 year old who will regress.

Now being reported that Heaney has agree to a one-year deal with the Dodgers. 

[sixthree175]

Just a general statement about 2022 -- whatever deals are made should be done with this in mind -- 2022 is a rebuilding year.  The target years for competing are 2023 and beyond.