2021-2022 Offseason Discussion/Signings/Trades/Rumors

[welch]

Alcides and Garcia make 2/3 of a good infield. Now Rizzo needs to find another Josh Harrison, or even the original Josh Harrison, and the infield will be OK next year.

Give Kieboom and Fedde tickets to Rochester.

[bluestreak]

Cameron specifically wrote articles warning teams about signing high regression candidates like Hosmer when he was at FG.

And if you view the Machado contract as risky, then I would assume you are against signing Soto long term? Because the Machado contract has been a no-brainer slam dunk from a performance perspective.

If you read Twitter and other outlets after the Hosmer signing they all were making fun of the fact that the first move after bringing Cameron on was to sign Hosmer. The consensus was there is no way he would have supported that move.

And I would assume that Machado contract in a heartbeat if it were possible.

[varoadking]

So, dave is under contract thru 2022.  Wonder what the metric will be to extend him...again...or to let him go? 

He's the beneficiary of 2020 and 2021 issues that you might say were beyond his control, with 2018 and 30% of 2019 having been pretty bad...

His W-L here is below .500 at 266-280...

I'm guessing the Lerners have pretty much adopted him like they have Zim and Stras...

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I totally agree, yet I pray he’s not the #2 hitter next year.  If we get the dh he would be a good double leadoff guy in the 9 hole.  Part of me is hoping we go Soto in the #2 hole next year.  That’s the equivalent of ≈30 extra PA over the course of a full season

I'm normally with you about the #2 spot.  Why I say he was much better at the #2 spot than I expected is that I did not think he'd hit for a .340 OBP.  this is a guy who did not top .300 OBP his last 4 seasons in KC, and was out of the majors in 2019.  I thought he was the definition of toast.  Probably BABIP luck without much of a spike in BB%, so maybe he becomes a pumpkin again, but he got on and even hit for more than negligible pop.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

So, dave is under contract thru 2022.  Wonder what the metric will be to extend him...again...or to let him go? 

He's the beneficiary of 2020 and 2021 issues that you might say were beyond his control, with 2018 and 30% of 2018 having been pretty bad...

His W-L here is below .500 at 266-280...

I'm guessing the Lerners have pretty much adopted him like they have Zim and Stras...

what were they - 18-51 after the trade deadline?  I don't think you can put that on Davey.

[zimm_da_kid]

I'm normally with you about the #2 spot.  Why I say he was much better at the #2 spot than I expected is that I did not think he'd hit for a .340 OBP.  this is a guy who did not top .300 OBP his last 4 seasons in KC, and was out of the majors in 2019.  I thought he was the definition of toast.  Probably BABIP luck without much of a spike in BB%, so maybe he becomes a pumpkin again, but he got on and even hit for more than negligible pop.

Babip was his second highest over a full season behind only 2012 in which he batted .292.  Avg this year was .39 above his career average and his babip was .41 above his career average.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Babip was his second highest over a full season behind only 2012 in which he batted .292.  Avg this year was .039 above his career average and his babip was .041 above his career average.

  Slight edit.

Backward-looking, I don't think you can say he didn't have success.  Forward-looking, it's probably right to doubt he can repeat it.  My preference is to see if there's a SS who falls to them in the FA market.  Alcides would not block him.  However, for now, he's got SS covered.

[varoadking]

what were they - 18-51 after the trade deadline?  I don't think you can put that on Davey.

I didn't...

[zimm_da_kid]

  Slight edit.

Backward-looking, I don't think you can say he didn't have success.  Forward-looking, it's probably right to doubt he can repeat it.  My preference is to see if there's a SS who falls to them in the FA market.  Alcides would not block him.  However, for now, he's got SS covered.

If he can be a good fielding backup at 2B, 3B, SS, and corner of with a .250+ avg on the cheap then it’s a good deal.  Anything more is a bonus.

Chapman is a guy I’m continuing to think about after someone posted the mlb trade rumors chat question recently.  His defense at 3rd might help mask Garcia’s deficiencies at SS if we want to play him there

[Slateman]

If he can be a good fielding backup at 2B, 3B, SS, and corner of with a .250+ avg on the cheap then it’s a good deal.  Anything more is a bonus.

Chapman is a guy I’m continuing to think about after someone posted the mlb trade rumors chat question recently.  His defense at 3rd might help mask Garcia’s deficiencies at SS if we want to play him there

Chapman is a piece you trade for to compete in the next two seasons. And the Nats arent anywhere close to that

[blue911]

I'm normally with you about the #2 spot.  Why I say he was much better at the #2 spot than I expected is that I did not think he'd hit for a .340 OBP.  this is a guy who did not top .300 OBP his last 4 seasons in KC, and was out of the majors in 2019.  I thought he was the definition of toast.  Probably BABIP luck without much of a spike in BB%, so maybe he becomes a pumpkin again, but he got on and even hit for more than negligible pop.

Oh, dead cat bounce.

[aspenbubba]

I didn't...

You cited his W-L record at being under .500. That was due to this past season which is not on Davey.

[varoadking]

You cited his W-L record at being under .500. That was due to this past season which is not on Davey.

I guess you might take it that way, but I also said:

He's the beneficiary of 2020 and 2021 issues that you might say were beyond his control...

[aspenbubba]

I guess you might take it that way, but I also said:

He's the beneficiary of 2020 and 2021 issues that you might say were beyond his control...

Fair enough. I think he is good enough to work with a rebuilding club with a lot of inexperienced players on the roster. Maybe not as good as Dusty who I believe helped MAT have his one good year with us.

[imref]

A pretty thorough look at roster decisions to be made over the next few weeks:
https://www.talknats.com/2021/10/06/money-juan-soto-contract-status-roster-moves/

Fedde and Suero are arb-eligible and are non-tender candidates, as is Joe Ross. The only true FAs are Mercer, Parra, and Zimmerman (and Avila who is retiring).

There are a slew of borderline guys who are out of options: Sean Nolin, Kyle McGowin, Patrick Murphy, Austin Voth and outfielder Andrew Stevenson

[zimm_da_kid]

A pretty thorough look at roster decisions to be made over the next few weeks:
https://www.talknats.com/2021/10/06/money-juan-soto-contract-status-roster-moves/

Fedde and Suero are arb-eligible and are non-tender candidates, as is Joe Ross. The only true FAs are Mercer, Parra, and Zimmerman (and Avila who is retiring).

There are a slew of borderline guys who are out of options: Sean Nolin, Kyle McGowin, Patrick Murphy, Austin Voth and outfielder Andrew Stevenson

Patrick Murphy is the only lock there.  His FIP was good with us and he looks the part of a big league late inning guy with the 97-98 mph

[bluestreak]

A pretty thorough look at roster decisions

to be made over the next few weeks:
https://www.talknats.com/2021/10/06/money-juan-soto-contract-status-roster-moves/

Fedde and Suero are arb-eligible and are non-tender candidates, as is Joe Ross. The only true FAs are Mercer, Parra, and Zimmerman (and Avila who is retiring).

There are a slew of borderline guys who are out of options: Sean Nolin, Kyle McGowin, Patrick Murphy, Austin Voth and outfielder Andrew Stevenson

Who is this guy? Because this part of his post is idiotic

My feeling is that long-term contracts rarely work out for the team. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera‘s contracts give you reason for pause. They were the two best players of the previous decade and their contracts didn’t finish well. Harper’s contract is looking good so far, but who else looks good on that list? Even Trout’s deal, the largest in baseball history doesn’t look too good right now. A Harper type of contract for Soto would look like a bargain and so does Tatis’ deal. We all know Soto’s agent, Scott Boras, would like to break Trout’s contract of $426.5 million which covers 12 years. That is $35.5 million a year.

While Soto might be a better hitter than Trout, he is not the 4 ½ tool player that Trout is — a player with three MVP trophies with nine seasons above a .960 OPS. Soto has two seasons above a .960 OPS and no MVPs. The other issue with Soto is that he is not a national icon like Trout, Betts, and Tatis. Even Harper had more Madison Avenue appeal than Soto.

First, comparing signing Soto to a contract at 23 to Cabrera and Pujols signing their second contracts in their 30s is idiotic. If you look at the first contracts they signed, they easily outperformed them. Second, if you could get Soto for 12 years at 36 million per, I would take it in a heartbeat and 3, I’ve got news for you, Tatis and Betts and Trout aren’t “national icons” people who aren’t baseball do not know who the freak they are. Same as with Soto.

[Natsinpwc]

Who is this guy? Because this part of his post is idiotic

First, comparing signing Soto to a contract at 23 to Cabrera and Pujols signing their second contracts in their 30s is idiotic. If you look at the first contracts they signed, they easily outperformed them. Second, if you could get Soto for 12 years at 36 million per, I would take it in a heartbeat and 3, I’ve got news for you, Tatis and Betts and Trout aren’t “national icons” people who aren’t baseball do not know who the freak they are. Same as with Soto.

Yes, those were clown comments.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

FWIW, the Rays have 52 players either on their 40 man, 70 day injury list, or covid list. They have to get down to 40 at the end of the season, and then will have to add guys they want to protect from rule 5. I think Kiermaier is a goner due to money, and they may be releasing arb eligible guys. Last year, they cast off Hunter Renfroe, so they occasionally let talent go

[Slateman]

FWIW, the Rays have 52 players either on their 40 man, 70 day injury list, or covid list. They have to get down to 40 at the end of the season, and then will have to add guys they want to protect from rule 5. I think Kiermaier is a goner due to money, and they may be releasing arb eligible guys. Last year, they cast off Hunter Renfroe, so they occasionally let talent go

If we were willing to part with a prospect that doesnt have to go on the 40 man for a while, we could probably take Kiermaier and get one of their 40 man roster prospects (McKay or Honeywell come to mind)

[welch]

If we were willing to part with a prospect that doesnt have to go on the 40 man for a while, we could probably take Kiermaier and get one of their 40 man roster prospects (McKay or Honeywell come to mind)

Does Clay count as a prospect? Or Fedde? Or Voth? Easy to spot the "should-be-goners" on the current 40-man.

- Baldonado
- Clay
- Avilan, out with TJS, and not much of a major leaguer before
- Alex Avila has retired
- Mike Ford (!)
- Gerardo Parra (retiring?)

https://www.mlb.com/nationals/roster/40-man

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If we were willing to part with a prospect that doesnt have to go on the 40 man for a while, we could probably take Kiermaier and get one of their 40 man roster prospects (McKay or Honeywell come to mind)

Does Clay count as a prospect? Or Fedde? Or Voth? Easy to spot the "should-be-goners" on the current 40-man.

Not for TB's purposes. TB has way too many guys who must be on their 40 man roster.  Clay / Fedde / Voth all must be on the 40 man roster since they are on ours.  That doesn't get them out of their jam.  They want somebody like Jeremy De La Rosa.  19 years old.  #11 on MLB.com's system rankings, #5 on Fangraphs rankings (40+ future value) at the start of the year.  I think he has 2 more seasons before he has to be added to the MLB roster. 

per FG:

De La Rosa popped up quickly after signing for $300,000 (normally below our radar on signing day) by standing out in his first stateside instructs. He had a solid pro debut the following summer as a 17-year-old in the GCL in 2019. Scouts described a well-rounded ballplayer without an identifiable weakness: solid average speed, arm strength, a chance to play in center field, and average raw power. Reports coming out of 2020 instructs were similar, if perhaps less enthusiastic about De La Rosa staying in center. A scout source who tends to grade players pretty conservatively said they thought De La Rosa actually has a chance to be a five-tool player. He has strong, quick hands that produce impressive pop for a player this size and age. As a compact-framed, shorter-levered hitter, we have a higher degree of confidence and comfortability betting on De La Rosa’s hit tool. He’s not a true burner and is a pretty physical kid, so we’re projecting an eventual move to a corner, but there’s also a real chance the hit/power is enough to profile there. (Alternate site, Fall Instructional League)

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-22-prospects-washington-nationals-2/

While he did not hit for much power in A ball this year, he is projected to eventually have at least MLB average power.

De La Rosa and probably a lesser player gets Slate's deal done.

[Slateman]

Does Clay count as a prospect? Or Fedde? Or Voth? Easy to spot the "should-be-goners" on the current 40-man.

- Baldonado
- Clay
- Avilan, out with TJS, and not much of a major leaguer before
- Alex Avila has retired
- Mike Ford (!)
- Gerardo Parra (retiring?)

https://www.mlb.com/nationals/roster/40-man

None of them because they would specifically want someone they dont have to protect from the Rule V draft

[Natsinpwc]

If the Rays were able to afford Kiermaier at $11.5 million this year then why would they not be able to afford him at $12 million next year? It’s not like they are bumping up against the luxury tax.

[Mattionals]

If the Rays were able to afford Kiermaier at $11.5 million this year then why would they not be able to afford him at $12 million next year? It’s not like they are bumping up against the luxury tax.

Other guys they want to keep get raises? They don't value KK at 12M?