I’m not counting on every wild card we have working out.
If one of Robles/kieboom/Garcia take the next step and become a slightly above average player that makes a big difference. Robles only needs to bat .250 to be a 2+ war player.
If one of gray/Adon can have an era in the high 3s that makes a difference.
If one of Rogers/Espino can have a mid 4s era, that makes a difference.
Lane was always a well regarded prospect so I think the chance of him being at least an average player is strong given his performance last year. Will he have an ops+ of 133 like he did with us? Probably not, but that’s ok. If he can provide an ops+ of 105-110 that is big.
Keibert is an elite prospect who has shown elite bat to ball skills in the majors now. He’s a likely .260+ hitter next year with 15+ homers, and minimal strikeouts. If the season started today he’d be our 5 hitter behind bell.
Garcia walked and struck out at better rates this past year while showing more power, likely due to lifting the ball more and pulling it more. He’s young. Young players improve.
We have enough wild cards here with reasons to be hopeful for each of them.we don’t need to hit on all of them. We just need versatile guys like josh Harrison to pick up the slack for whoever isn’t cutting it by Memorial Day.
The problem is that wild cards have a small chance of happening and you are asking for multiple wild cards to hit in order to even be in a position where a Kris Bryant and Robbie Ray will get this team to the playoffs.
First wild card: Strasburg and Corbin have to contribute. This right here is a huge one. Even before TOS, Strasburg wasn't reliable. And we're now entering the point in Corbin's career where you would have expected significant drop off. The chances of these guys giving you the equivalent of 350 innings of 4.25 ERA pitching (or better) is already pretty low.
Kieboom is the next biggest wild card. Pretty low percentage he becomes a capable MLB player at this point. To achieve 2+ WAR status he would probably have to have an OPS north of .800.
Robles: Better chance but still not really great.
Lane Thomas was never projected as more than a platoon starter/4th OFer on a good team. Its why the Cards gave him up. Of everyone talked about, I'm expecting significant regression from him. He was already coming back down to earth at the end of last season.
Keibert Ruiz was an elite prospect ... for a catcher. He certainly did not demonstrate elite bat to ball skills at the MLB level last season. He is still young and playing the most difficult position on the field. That youth will also affect the young pitching staff (which we will get to).
Your plan also hinges on Josh Harrison and Alciedes Escobar performing like they did last season. Quite frankly, that's a long shot. Both will be 35 next year. Both just had the best season they've had in years. Expecting them to repeat it is asking for a lot. And, frankly, their seasons were only average/slightly above average. Neither of them are bats to fear or be concerned about in the line up.
Now the pitching. Adon isn't going to be ready. You're reading far too much into one start against a team that simply DGAF. He threw all of five innings. Gray is also young and needs significant development. Neither Cavali or Cole is going to be ready for MLB innings next spring either. And young pitchers usually take time to reach their potential. Robbie Ray is a perfect example. Betting on young pitchers will disappoint you every time. And that's frankly what we have to have in order to succeed. You've got 75 million a year invested in two guys who will likely end up being 4/5 level of performance. You need your young, cost controlled guys to make up that difference. And that's asking a lot.
Rogers and Espino posting mid 4 ERAs ... eh, doable, but I also don't think they will make it a full season.
The bullpen is straight up garbage. The only guys worth keeping are Finnegan and Rainey. Everyone else is fodder. Harris also had TOS, so it will take a minor miracle for him to return to form. And even if he does, this team still needs a closer and a serviceable lefty reliever.
You may not need all of these "wild cards" to hit, but you need a significant number of them. And Rizzo has to convince the Lerners that they will happen in order to justify dropping 200+ million on a Kris Bryant and another 130 million for a starting pitcher you need. Which is why, ultimately, they won't. You might get a Schwarber signing, but the Nats will look at short team deals with guys like Rosario, Matz, Wood, or Escobar. If they do one or two of these and all their wild cards hit (or the majority do), then Rizzo is in a nice position to make a couple moves at the deadline. Otherwise, he has some nice pieces to trade off to a team looking to make their own run.
