Author Topic: 2021-2022 Offseason Discussion/Signings/Trades/Rumors  (Read 7122 times)

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Offline Slateman

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Sure, but it's not young for the level he's at.  Most early-round pitching prospects who are 23 and going to make it (at least as starters) are looking at least at AA to start the season with likely midseason promotions to AAA. 

That's still possible for Rutledge - and yes, COVID matters here (consider the season Cavalli just had, which not coincidentally ended with him at age 23 in AAA) - but it's a bit uphill. 

Compare the other pitchers chosen in the first 20 picks alongside him: Nick Lodolo dominated AA and ended the season in AAA.  Alek Manoah's already in the majors.  Quinn Priester (a high school draftee) did well in high-A at age 21 this year.  Zack Thompson struggled in AAA but did well in the AFL.  George Kirby succeeded in high-A and AA. 

Rutledge is behind all those guys.
His age isnt that big of a deal, especially when you factor in a lost year. Y'all are too spoiled by young phenoms. None of the other prep school/juco arms drafted with him as starters have progressed much further.

Lots of time to let him develop. His fastball is still electric and that alone puts him in MLB reliever territory.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Wow looks like the offseason really started this morning

Offline Slateman

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Wow looks like the offseason really started this morning
That December 1 deadline is looming large for some players.

Online UMDNats

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Love that Rizzo hired one of his AZ boys to the player development job. Offseason is already lost.

Offline hotshot

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Sure, but it's not young for the level he's at.  Most early-round pitching prospects who are 23 and going to make it (at least as starters) are looking at least at AA to start the season with likely midseason promotions to AAA. 

That's still possible for Rutledge - and yes, COVID matters here (consider the season Cavalli just had, which not coincidentally ended with him at age 23 in AAA) - but it's a bit uphill. 

Compare the other pitchers chosen in the first 20 picks alongside him: Nick Lodolo dominated AA and ended the season in AAA.  Alek Manoah's already in the majors.  Quinn Priester (a high school draftee) did well in high-A at age 21 this year.  Zack Thompson struggled in AAA but did well in the AFL.  George Kirby succeeded in high-A and AA. 

Rutledge is behind all those guys.
Manoah not only already in the bigs, but looks capable of being a #1 starter.

Online imref

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Offline Five Banners

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Love that Rizzo hired one of his AZ boys to the player development job. Offseason is already lost.

Nightmare

Online UMDNats

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https://www.federalbaseball.com/2021/11/16/22784493/washington-nationals-new-farm-director-de-jon-watson-is-a-tireless-worker

that article gave us no information about Watson besides, "yeah he's a guy i like hanging out with." i could have made up a story with more substance.

this turd is probably going to tell kieboom to get a new girlfriend so he hits better. very on-brand for rizzo to continue his echo chamber front office and promote a guy who will continue to operate the farm as if it's the 1990s.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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His age isnt that big of a deal, especially when you factor in a lost year. Y'all are too spoiled by young phenoms. None of the other prep school/juco arms drafted with him as starters have progressed much further.

Lots of time to let him develop. His fastball is still electric and that alone puts him in MLB reliever territory.

Literally all of the starters in the first 32 picks of that draft - including the high school guys - have been at least decent in high-A.  And they all faced the cancellation of 2020, so that's not a differentiator.

None of this is fatal or means Rutledge isn't a major league pitcher.  But this discussion originated in whether he could be the headline piece in a Matt Chapman trade.  The answer to that is no.  He's a good prospect who has lost some time and still has a high ceiling.  He ain't Denaburg, but he ain't Cavalli either.

Personally I'm more worried about him having had a shoulder injury than his age, but it's a simple fact that he has to be evaluated and valued a little differently than is often the case for first round pitchers as they progress because he's not going to be facing guys several years older than he is. 

Offline Slateman

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:lmao: We arent trading for Chapman

Holy crap, a lot of you are straight up in denial. Its a shortened season. Rizzo is going to use it as an extended Spring Training. Unless a series of miracles happen, starting with Strasburg's career rising from the grave, Rizzo isnt going to burn capital trading for Chapman

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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:lmao: We arent trading for Chapman

Holy crap, a lot of you are straight up in denial. Its a shortened season. Rizzo is going to use it as an extended Spring Training. Unless a series of miracles happen, starting with Strasburg's career rising from the grave, Rizzo isnt going to burn capital trading for Chapman
Extended Spring?  They have 2-3 position prospects who may see significant time in an extended spring scenario (Garcia, Kieboom, and maybe Robles).  Beyond that, they will temporize with short, flippable signings.  Nothing is stopping them from signing a starting OF and another infielder.  They can do that with a reasonable financial commitment that will not block any development.  If there's pleasant surprises in terms of health and performance, then they will be in a position for minor moves at the deadline. 

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Literally all of the starters in the first 32 picks of that draft - including the high school guys - have been at least decent in high-A.  And they all faced the cancellation of 2020, so that's not a differentiator.

None of this is fatal or means Rutledge isn't a major league pitcher.  But this discussion originated in whether he could be the headline piece in a Matt Chapman trade.  The answer to that is no.  He's a good prospect who has lost some time and still has a high ceiling.  He ain't Denaburg, but he ain't Cavalli either.

Personally I'm more worried about him having had a shoulder injury than his age, but it's a simple fact that he has to be evaluated and valued a little differently than is often the case for first round pitchers as they progress because he's not going to be facing guys several years older than he is. 

Regarding your “he’s not Denaburg” comment, that’s actually an interesting question. Sure denaburg hasn’t pitched, but he hasn’t shown terrible results in any meaningful sample size. Plus, denaburg is 4 months younger

Offline varoadking

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Plus, denaburg is 4 months younger

Good point...4 months is about 28 months in dog years...

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Regarding your “he’s not Denaburg” comment, that’s actually an interesting question. Sure denaburg hasn’t pitched, but he hasn’t shown terrible results in any meaningful sample size. Plus, denaburg is 4 months younger

Neither has Rutledge.  His poor results this season were in a total of 36 1/3 innings, all of which were coming off COVID layoff then injuries. 

Denaburg has the same issue but infinitely worse.  Young pitchers don't improve by not pitching.  And a dude who has missed the equivalent of his entire college career, mostly because he had shoulder surgery and then Tommy John, is another category entirely.  If Denaburg were draft-eligible now, he might not get picked at all.  Not in the first round, not in the 20th.  Rutledge likely wouldn't be picked in the first round, but he'd probably still go in the first 3 rounds.  There's still too much potential there. 

Offline Slateman

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Extended Spring?  They have 2-3 position prospects who may see significant time in an extended spring scenario (Garcia, Kieboom, and maybe Robles).  Beyond that, they will temporize with short, flippable signings.  Nothing is stopping them from signing a starting OF and another infielder.  They can do that with a reasonable financial commitment that will not block any development.  If there's pleasant surprises in terms of health and performance, then they will be in a position for minor moves at the deadline. 
And literally no combination of those signings realistically puts them in a playoff hunt.

2022 will be about developing at the major league level and flipping short term contracts to build up the farm. If by some series of miracles we are actually in the playoff hunt at the deadline, then maybe we can talk about trading prospects for players. Until then, there is zero point.

Offline madj55

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Davey currently in Ohio hanging out with Schwarber.

https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1461353822819794958?s=21

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Davey currently in Ohio hanging out with Schwarber.

https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1461353822819794958?s=21

4 years for 65-75 and I’d be game

Have him lead off vs righty’s and have Thomas lead off against lefties.

Schwarber sucks against lefties.  That goes for this past year and his career.  Factoring in his defense, he’s not really playable vs lefties

Online Natsinpwc

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4 years for 65-75 and I’d be game

Have him lead off vs righty’s and have Thomas lead off against lefties.

Schwarber sucks against lefties.  That goes for this past year and his career.  Factoring in his defense, he’s not really playable vs lefties
Seems like a guy who will be hurt a lot.  So four years seems a risk for a rebuilding team. I suppose the DH will make him more attractive.

Offline welch

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Sign Schwarber, and that makes a slugging LF and RF. Sign Kris Bryant and that fixes the 3B hole also named Kieboom. Add a pitcher and the Nats improve a lot just as the Mets flounder.

Then beat the Fillies, who have Wheeler and nobody else.

Then find a way to take down Atlanta, which has a strong lineup if Freddie re-signs, but maybe some maybes in the rotation.

Offline Slateman

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Just add 60 million AAV in payroll, and still not have a full rotation or a bullpen worth a crap?

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Sign Schwarber, and that makes a slugging LF and RF. Sign Kris Bryant and that fixes the 3B hole also named Kieboom. Add a pitcher and the Nats improve a lot just as the Mets flounder.

Then beat the Fillies, who have Wheeler and nobody else.

Then find a way to take down Atlanta, which has a strong lineup if Freddie re-signs, but maybe some maybes in the rotation.

The Nationals finished 17 games behind the Phillies.  Wheeler is joined by...well, some weirdo who just won the MVP, for starters.

The Braves just won the World Series.

Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and a team that lost 97 games is not going to cut it.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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The Nationals finished 17 games behind the Phillies.  Wheeler is joined by...well, some weirdo who just won the MVP, for starters.

The Braves just won the World Series.

Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and a team that lost 97 games is not going to cut it.

Granted, it would be more than just adding those guys.  It’s likely that there’s some level of improvement among Robles/Garcia/kieboom.  Plus maturation from our young pitchers gray/Adon, the strong likelihood that at least one of cavalli or Henry will debut next year in some capacity, and we can see if Rogers or Espino prove something. 

This doesn’t even factor in bullpen natural improvement, the 90% chance that strasburg and Corbin contribute more this year (it wouldn’t take much), or the fact that we get full seasons of lane and Keibert who have shown already had success at the major league level and have shown no reason to doubt them. 

We’re closer than people think.  Next year is possible if rizzo is smart this offseason.  One biggish bat and a couple Harrison/Flores/Rosario/Villar type guys

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Granted, it would be more than just adding those guys.  It’s likely that there’s some level of improvement among Robles/Garcia/kieboom.  Plus maturation from our young pitchers gray/Adon, the strong likelihood that at least one of cavalli or Henry will debut next year in some capacity, and we can see if Rogers or Espino prove something. 

This doesn’t even factor in bullpen natural improvement, the 90% chance that strasburg and Corbin contribute more this year (it wouldn’t take much), or the fact that we get full seasons of lane and Keibert who have shown already had success at the major league level and have shown no reason to doubt them. 

We’re closer than people think.  Next year is possible if rizzo is smart this offseason.  One biggish bat and a couple Harrison/Flores/Rosario/Villar type guys

Regression works in both directions. 

Bell posted the second-best season of his career; maybe that's sustainable, particularly hitting behind Soto, but maybe it's not. 

Escobar, at age 34 and after being out of the league since 2018, posted an OPS 100 points higher than his career average, the first time he'd posted an OPS+ over 75 since 2014. 

Espino threw 109 innings of essentially league average, also at age 34, after having no track record of any sustained reasonable production.

People forget that Ross also threw over 100 innings of essentially league average.  That's highly unlikely to happen again given his injury.

Yadiel Hernandez, also well into his 30s, produced league-average offense as a rookie. 

Lane Thomas, out of nowhere, posted the same OPS+ as Manny Machado and Carlos Correa.

Any success next year seems to rely on those results repeating as well.  Not going to happen.

Online imref

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Ross won't be back until what, August, if even that soon?

Strasburg is still the key to our plans next season. If he's healthy it makes sense for us to make some moves to try and win next year. If not, a rotation of Rogers, Gray, Corbin, Fedde, and Espino is a 60-win season.

Offline blue911

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Granted, it would be more than just adding those guys.  It’s likely that there’s some level of improvement among Robles/Garcia/kieboom.  Plus maturation from our young pitchers gray/Adon, the strong likelihood that at least one of cavalli or Henry will debut next year in some capacity, and we can see if Rogers or Espino prove something. 

This doesn’t even factor in bullpen natural improvement, the 90% chance that strasburg and Corbin contribute more this year (it wouldn’t take much), or the fact that we get full seasons of lane and Keibert who have shown already had success at the major league level and have shown no reason to doubt them. 

We’re closer than people think.  Next year is possible if rizzo is smart this offseason.  One biggish bat and a couple Harrison/Flores/Rosario/Villar type guys

You are counting on the Nats rolling 7s on every player, while the opposition rolls 12s. Right now this team is going to lose over 100 games. No amount of fiddling around the edges changes that. Any major improvement will have to be spurred by players already in the system. And that doesn’t look good for 2022