Author Topic: 2021-2022 Offseason Discussion/Signings/Trades/Rumors  (Read 37754 times)

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Online JCA-CrystalCity

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That's all true, except that you miss out on the value of the final arb year (saves money, provides negotiating leverage ahead of it to sign that long term deal) and you then end up with the X factor of wondering whether the new guy plays as well in a new setting. 

For example, what does Correa look like playing in a home stadium where the LF fence isn't within spitting distance of the infield?  What does Story look like at sea level full time (does he stay healthier)? 

I guess what I'm getting at is that I'm having a hard time seeing which of these guys would cost less or the same as Turner likely would and is reasonably certain to produce the same or similar value. 
Turner was coming off what, a $13MM year where he was the top fWAR guy in the NL and due a 4th year arbitration award?  Pencil him in for $18 - 20 million for 2022 barring a significant lowering of the Comp Balance Tax threshold.  I believe it was Fangraphs that projected Story getting a 5 year deal at $23MM AAV. If those numbers are anywhere near correct, getting the LAD to give you Ruiz in the deal makes it a very reasonable course to move Turner and sign a backfilling contract like the one suggested for Story.

edit - it's Ben Clemens on FG who estimated $23MM AAV, 5 years for Story.  Crowd had 6 years $25MM median.  I would do it for the lower number if Story can be signed for that due to the glut.