Author Topic: 2021-2022 Offseason Discussion/Signings/Trades/Rumors  (Read 7146 times)

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Online welch

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Matz and either Stroman or our Max. Kershaw's "forearm injury" must be serious, if the Dodgers decided not to extend the QO. Maybe he retires, or signs with the Astros or Rangers?

Josh Harrison, come home! This would still make a thin infield: Harrison for 3B, The Real Escobar at SS, and Our Ruiz at 2B. Two older guys, who would normally be backups, and one hopeful. No infielders near-ready in the minors, and, no, Kieboom is neither a major league hitter nor fielder. Or think big enough for Kris Bryant? Thinking that Soto will be around only a couple more years, but that his contract ends just when Corbin's contract ends. Fill out a better team now and extend Soto with biggest dollars after Corbin finishes.

Maybe a corner OF who can hit?


Online Natsinpwc

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Half of that is tied up in 3 players who won't contribute one whit to the team in 2022.  Too bad you can't void contracts as part of the new CBA...
Yea and as you said the deferred money does not count against the luxury tax but it counts against the Lerners bank account. 

Online Natsinpwc

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Matz and either Stroman or our Max. Kershaw's "forearm injury" must be serious, if the Dodgers decided not to extend the QO. Maybe he retires, or signs with the Astros or Rangers?

Josh Harrison, come home! This would still make a thin infield: Harrison for 3B, The Real Escobar at SS, and Our Ruiz at 2B. Two older guys, who would normally be backups, and one hopeful. No infielders near-ready in the minors, and, no, Kieboom is neither a major league hitter nor fielder. Or think big enough for Kris Bryant? Thinking that Soto will be around only a couple more years, but that his contract ends just when Corbin's contract ends. Fill out a better team now and extend Soto with biggest dollars after Corbin finishes.

Maybe a corner OF who can hit?
The Lerners are not going near the luxury tax level this years. You need to step out of that dream world. Maybe in 2023 if things start tracking in the right direction this year they will spend more in 2023. I think the priority should be to lock up Soto although that may not be possible.

Offline hotshot

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If Rizzo and the Lerners knew with certainty today that Soto would be leaving as soon as he can, how would that change what they do right now?

Offline varoadking

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If Rizzo and the Lerners knew with certainty today that Soto would be leaving as soon as he can, how would that change what they do right now?

Pretty sure they already know...

Offline Slateman

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I would assume Rizzo is already  operating with that certainty. I believe that is the driving force behind the "reload" vs "rebuild"

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Matz and either Stroman or our Max. Kershaw's "forearm injury" must be serious, if the Dodgers decided not to extend the QO. Maybe he retires, or signs with the Astros or Rangers?

Josh Harrison, come home! This would still make a thin infield: Harrison for 3B, The Real Escobar at SS, and Our Ruiz at 2B. Two older guys, who would normally be backups, and one hopeful. No infielders near-ready in the minors, and, no, Kieboom is neither a major league hitter nor fielder. Or think big enough for Kris Bryant? Thinking that Soto will be around only a couple more years, but that his contract ends just when Corbin's contract ends. Fill out a better team now and extend Soto with biggest dollars after Corbin finishes.

Maybe a corner OF who can hit?


take it you mean Our Luis Garcia, in contrast to the dancer / pitcher for Houston? Or maybe you were thinking of catcher and including it in the infield.

Online nfotiu

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I wonder if Rizzo takes a shot at one of the big short stops.   With so many available, and free agency slow, their could be a bit of a value play there where Rizzo is anticipating a chance to get a guy he thinks is a better long term fit than Trea for less than it would have taken to re-sign him.   

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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I wonder if Rizzo takes a shot at one of the big short stops.   With so many available, and free agency slow, their could be a bit of a value play there where Rizzo is anticipating a chance to get a guy he thinks is a better long term fit than Trea for less than it would have taken to re-sign him.

It doesn't make sense to trade Turner and then try to sign a roughly equivalent (and for most of the options, older) player for a lot more money. 

With the market glut and the near-certain labor disruption, I could see one or two of those guys taking a short-term contract.  Semien is coming off one of those, and look how that worked out for him.  But nobody is signing a lowball long-term contract this winter.

If you want a value play, take a shot at Mark Canha.  He's unusually old for a first-time FA, he plays all three outfield positions plus 1B decently, and he has an OBP/power combination that allows him to hit anywhere in the lineup. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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I'd consider Story at 5 years, $23MM AAV, which was either the MLBTR estimate or the one on Fangraphs.

By the way, I sort of think the $133 million on sportrac isn't unreasonable, although I could see several guys being non-tendered.  That's especially true for a guy like Stevenson if an outfielder is brought in as a free agent.  So, the Nats are in a position where if, say, $140 million is their max, virtually no one would be brought in. That's certainly possible.  However, if they were willing to push the budget up to $170 million, there are several short term signings I think that could help make the team competitive with a break on health, based on the numbers guessed at on MLBTR/FG. This would also give them non-core assets to flip at the deadline if, say, there's nothing out of Ross and Strasburg, Corbin still is not right, and there's no pleasant surprises. That may be most likely, but it also is an if.

Online nfotiu

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It doesn't make sense to trade Turner and then try to sign a roughly equivalent (and for most of the options, older) player for a lot more money. 

With the market glut and the near-certain labor disruption, I could see one or two of those guys taking a short-term contract.  Semien is coming off one of those, and look how that worked out for him.  But nobody is signing a lowball long-term contract this winter.

If you want a value play, take a shot at Mark Canha.  He's unusually old for a first-time FA, he plays all three outfield positions plus 1B decently, and he has an OBP/power combination that allows him to hit anywhere in the lineup. 
The guy you have is not always the guy who makes the most sense to throw money at.   Guys coming out of team control don't usually give much of a home town discount.  It's almost the opposite.  They want more money to sign an extension than they'd likely get in free agency.

Flipping a year of Turner for some prospects, and then putting money on possibly a better valued short stop would be a pretty shrewd move if you look at it without any emotional ties.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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The guy you have is not always the guy who makes the most sense to throw money at.   Guys coming out of team control don't usually give much of a home town discount.  It's almost the opposite.  They want more money to sign an extension than they'd likely get in free agency.

Flipping a year of Turner for some prospects, and then putting money on possibly a better valued short stop would be a pretty shrewd move if you look at it without any emotional ties.

That's all true, except that you miss out on the value of the final arb year (saves money, provides negotiating leverage ahead of it to sign that long term deal) and you then end up with the X factor of wondering whether the new guy plays as well in a new setting. 

For example, what does Correa look like playing in a home stadium where the LF fence isn't within spitting distance of the infield?  What does Story look like at sea level full time (does he stay healthier)? 

I guess what I'm getting at is that I'm having a hard time seeing which of these guys would cost less or the same as Turner likely would and is reasonably certain to produce the same or similar value. 

Offline imref

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The guy you have is not always the guy who makes the most sense to throw money at.   Guys coming out of team control don't usually give much of a home town discount.  It's almost the opposite.  They want more money to sign an extension than they'd likely get in free agency.

Flipping a year of Turner for some prospects, and then putting money on possibly a better valued short stop would be a pretty shrewd move if you look at it without any emotional ties.

I assume the team is pretty high on Cluff though after the AFL season he's had. I assume the plan is to stick with Escobar until Cluff is ready, perhaps later in the year.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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That's all true, except that you miss out on the value of the final arb year (saves money, provides negotiating leverage ahead of it to sign that long term deal) and you then end up with the X factor of wondering whether the new guy plays as well in a new setting. 

For example, what does Correa look like playing in a home stadium where the LF fence isn't within spitting distance of the infield?  What does Story look like at sea level full time (does he stay healthier)? 

I guess what I'm getting at is that I'm having a hard time seeing which of these guys would cost less or the same as Turner likely would and is reasonably certain to produce the same or similar value. 
Turner was coming off what, a $13MM year where he was the top fWAR guy in the NL and due a 4th year arbitration award?  Pencil him in for $18 - 20 million for 2022 barring a significant lowering of the Comp Balance Tax threshold.  I believe it was Fangraphs that projected Story getting a 5 year deal at $23MM AAV. If those numbers are anywhere near correct, getting the LAD to give you Ruiz in the deal makes it a very reasonable course to move Turner and sign a backfilling contract like the one suggested for Story.

edit - it's Ben Clemens on FG who estimated $23MM AAV, 5 years for Story.  Crowd had 6 years $25MM median.  I would do it for the lower number if Story can be signed for that due to the glut.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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I assume the team is pretty high on Cluff though after the AFL season he's had. I assume the plan is to stick with Escobar until Cluff is ready, perhaps later in the year.
I'm skeptical that Cluff and Antuna now are flipped in the pecking order.  The job is Antuna's in 2023 on Rizzo's projections, I imagine.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Heany is crap

Online UMDNats

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There's no way Cluff and Atuna are actually in long-term plans. If either plays significant time in the majors it's found money. Cluff is 25 years old and just had a dogcrap season and is hitting well in a major hitters league. He's not a guy. If he gets us 0.5 WAR it's a win.

Like how are we talking about passing on a plethora of free agent SS to play a guy we picked up off the street and a non-prospect?! Escobar is not someone you pencil in at SS next year and feel good about. He was out of baseball basically when we got him.

Offline aspenbubba

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I believe Welch and others are referring to Eduardo Escobar as the real one

Offline hotshot

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Why do so many "experts" have Correa going to Detroit?

Offline imref

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Why do so many "experts" have Correa going to Detroit?

familiarity with AJ Hinch, Detroit needs a SS, and the ownership has said it plans to spend money.  The rumblings are that Correa is looking for something near what Lindor got, and that the Astros last offer was for $160 million over 5 years.

Offline Slateman

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Why do so many "experts" have Correa going to Detroit?
Hinch.
The Tigers' window is opening
They have money.

Offline imref

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Nolan and baldonado signed to minor league deals

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Turner was coming off what, a $13MM year where he was the top fWAR guy in the NL and due a 4th year arbitration award?  Pencil him in for $18 - 20 million for 2022 barring a significant lowering of the Comp Balance Tax threshold.  I believe it was Fangraphs that projected Story getting a 5 year deal at $23MM AAV. If those numbers are anywhere near correct, getting the LAD to give you Ruiz in the deal makes it a very reasonable course to move Turner and sign a backfilling contract like the one suggested for Story.

edit - it's Ben Clemens on FG who estimated $23MM AAV, 5 years for Story.  Crowd had 6 years $25MM median.  I would do it for the lower number if Story can be signed for that due to the glut.

I'd sign Story to that, too.  But there's a hell of a difference between 5/115 and 6/150, and my gut is that the latter is closer.  He's only going to be 29 next season.  I think he'd probably even sign a one-year rather than do the lower one.  Glut, yes, but consider that Manny Machado's making $30 million a year for his age 29-34 seasons (with two more after that at the same rate) and there's 6% inflation. 

Machado is better, yes, but is he THAT much better?  My bet is that at least 1 GM answers that in the negative, and one is all it takes.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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I'd sign Story to that, too.  But there's a hell of a difference between 5/115 and 6/150, and my gut is that the latter is closer.  He's only going to be 29 next season.  I think he'd probably even sign a one-year rather than do the lower one.  Glut, yes, but consider that Manny Machado's making $30 million a year for his age 29-34 seasons (with two more after that at the same rate) and there's 6% inflation. 

Machado is better, yes, but is he THAT much better?  My bet is that at least 1 GM answers that in the negative, and one is all it takes.
If the Nats were willing to give him a 1 year pillow contract at $25 million, what would be so bad about that?  The expectation is that there'd be a deadline taker should we not contend, but he's nice balance for Soto, he'd not be blocking House or any real SS candidate.  He's coming off $27.5 million, so I suppose he may get more for a year, but if he falls, I'd like going up and grabbing him.  Only downside is if it hampers us finding some pitching, but, TBH, a pitcher might even like the Nats more if we had one infielder who was a plus defensively.

Offline varoadking

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Just play the kids next year and see if any of them are worth anything.  Who cares it you finish 3rd or 5th in the Division? 

With Strasburg, Corbin and Harris nothing but $66MM in dead money, the Nats aren't gonna be able to improve to the degree they need to anyway...not to mention what may lie ahead with the new CBA.