Author Topic: 2021-2022 Offseason Discussion/Signings/Trades/Rumors  (Read 1818 times)

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Offline Slateman

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https://theathletic.com/2865723/2021/10/03/with-manager-change-expected-padres-enter-the-offseason-on-shaky-ground/?source=user_shared_article

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According to sources, Padres special assistant and former FanGraphs editor Dave Cameron is leaving the organization of his own volition. Cameron, who was hired before the 2018 season, had at times been one of the Padres’ more influential executives in terms of player acquisitions.

On Sunday, one of the players Cameron recommended stood out amid the rubble of a lost season. Trent Grisham made a leaping catch at the center-field wall, saved more runs with a sprinting catch and went 2-for-4 at the plate. The rest of the Padres went 5-for-26. Five of their pitchers combined to surrender 11 runs, two on the first homer of Logan Webb’s professional career. On the mound, Webb fired seven mostly brilliant innings. He walked off the field to an ovation.

Dave Cameron is leaving the Padres. For thoses who arent familiar, Dave was the managing editor of Fangraphs, until Preller plucked him and put him in R&D for the Padres. He quickly proved his worth, pushing the Padres to acquire Cronenworth and Austin Nola, in additon to Grisham.

We know Rizzo is shaking up the organization and player development. I would love for Rizzo to give Cameron a job in the Nats organization. We all know Rizzo is big on the scouting side and has been criticized for a lack of analytics. I dont think this because Rizzo is opposed to analytics, I just think that Rizzo isnt as familiar with analytics, so he uses them as a supplement to scouting and player development, instead of as a driver or major component.

So yea, if we're gonna revamp the org, lets build it out like it needs to be, going forward

Offline Natsinpwc

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https://theathletic.com/2865723/2021/10/03/with-manager-change-expected-padres-enter-the-offseason-on-shaky-ground/?source=user_shared_article

Dave Cameron is leaving the Padres. For thoses who arent familiar, Dave was the managing editor of Fangraphs, until Preller plucked him and put him in R&D for the Padres. He quickly proved his worth, pushing the Padres to acquire Cronenworth and Austin Nola, in additon to Grisham.

We know Rizzo is shaking up the organization and player development. I would love for Rizzo to give Cameron a job in the Nats organization. We all know Rizzo is big on the scouting side and has been criticized for a lack of analytics. I dont think this because Rizzo is opposed to analytics, I just think that Rizzo isnt as familiar with analytics, so he uses them as a supplement to scouting and player development, instead of as a driver or major component.

So yea, if we're gonna revamp the org, lets build it out like it needs to be, going forward

Not sure about the guy’s overall resume but it’s amusing to see a writer draw conclusions about a player based on one meaningless game at the end of the year. Grisham’s offensive stats are mediocre for the year.  The Padres scored runs. Their pitching fell apart. Was he not influential in assembling a bad staff?

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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My question would be how many of the stinkers they've made were his input, too.  Right now the Padres have more money committed for 2022 than any other team, and that's on a roster that just finished 4 games below .500.

It's easy to blame Preller for being a slick-haired moron who lucked into Tatis via trade, but someone was responsible for Hosmer and Profar and for using the trade deadline this year to add at the one place they didn't need to add while not fixing the other issues. 

Same question for the bold - but risky - Machado and Tatis contracts.  Tatis will probably work out fine (Machado, maybe too), but that's still a lot of big decisions on which I'd be curious as to who was actually making the calls.

Not sure about the guy’s overall resume but it’s amusing to see a writer draw conclusions about a player based on one meaningless game at the end of the year. Grisham’s offensive stats are mediocre for the year.  The Padres scored runs. Their pitching fell apart. Was he not influential in assembling a bad staff?

Grisham's offense is more than fine for a guy with his defense and salary.  But ditto the comment on the pitching.  Yes, injuries, but pitchers always get hurt and particularly so after the weirdness of 2020.

Offline YadiSTAR aka Smithian

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https://theathletic.com/2865723/2021/10/03/with-manager-change-expected-padres-enter-the-offseason-on-shaky-ground/?source=user_shared_article

Dave Cameron is leaving the Padres. For thoses who arent familiar, Dave was the managing editor of Fangraphs, until Preller plucked him and put him in R&D for the Padres. He quickly proved his worth, pushing the Padres to acquire Cronenworth and Austin Nola, in additon to Grisham.

We know Rizzo is shaking up the organization and player development. I would love for Rizzo to give Cameron a job in the Nats organization. We all know Rizzo is big on the scouting side and has been criticized for a lack of analytics. I dont think this because Rizzo is opposed to analytics, I just think that Rizzo isnt as familiar with analytics, so he uses them as a supplement to scouting and player development, instead of as a driver or major component.

So yea, if we're gonna revamp the org, lets build it out like it needs to be, going forward
I want to see the minor league development staff stripped down and rebuilt. I don't know if that is an analytics issue, but I'm open to anything. I wouldn't be surprised to see a name hire coming in as a deputy to Mike Rizzo. I feel like he has been around long enough that he may bring in a #2 to do more of the day to day while he is big picture. I'd love for him to dive more fully into the minors. It just seemed so much better the beginning of the past decade.

I'm intrigued by the coaching staff. Martinez ran off most of the staff from the World Series group, hired his guys, and this year was a disappointment. I see no reason to roll over the coaches. Pitching on the other hand, Jim Hickey has a long track record of success and Blanco seems to be a favorite. But this year was a disaster in the pitching department.

Offline Natsinpwc

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My question would be how many of the stinkers they've made were his input, too.  Right now the Padres have more money committed for 2022 than any other team, and that's on a roster that just finished 4 games below .500.

It's easy to blame Preller for being a slick-haired moron who lucked into Tatis via trade, but someone was responsible for Hosmer and Profar and for using the trade deadline this year to add at the one place they didn't need to add while not fixing the other issues. 

Same question for the bold - but risky - Machado and Tatis contracts.  Tatis will probably work out fine (Machado, maybe too), but that's still a lot of big decisions on which I'd be curious as to who was actually making the calls.

Grisham's offense is more than fine for a guy with his defense and salary.  But ditto the comment on the pitching.  Yes, injuries, but pitchers always get hurt and particularly so after the weirdness of 2020.
Good comments. I just found it strange that a writer for the Athletic would highlight one game as if that proved his point. 

Offline Slateman

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My question would be how many of the stinkers they've made were his input, too.  Right now the Padres have more money committed for 2022 than any other team, and that's on a roster that just finished 4 games below .500.

It's easy to blame Preller for being a slick-haired moron who lucked into Tatis via trade, but someone was responsible for Hosmer and Profar and for using the trade deadline this year to add at the one place they didn't need to add while not fixing the other issues. 

Same question for the bold - but risky - Machado and Tatis contracts.  Tatis will probably work out fine (Machado, maybe too), but that's still a lot of big decisions on which I'd be curious as to who was actually making the calls.

Grisham's offense is more than fine for a guy with his defense and salary.  But ditto the comment on the pitching.  Yes, injuries, but pitchers always get hurt and particularly so after the weirdness of 2020.
Cameron specifically wrote articles warning teams about signing high regression candidates like Hosmer when he was at FG.

And if you view the Machado contract as risky, then I would assume you are against signing Soto long term? Because the Machado contract has been a no-brainer slam dunk from a performance perspective.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Cameron specifically wrote articles warning teams about signing high regression candidates like Hosmer when he was at FG.

And if you view the Machado contract as risky, then I would assume you are against signing Soto long term? Because the Machado contract has been a no-brainer slam dunk from a performance perspective.
Soto is only 22. Much younger than Machado when he signed his contract.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Cameron specifically wrote articles warning teams about signing high regression candidates like Hosmer when he was at FG.

And if you view the Machado contract as risky, then I would assume you are against signing Soto long term? Because the Machado contract has been a no-brainer slam dunk from a performance perspective.

Machado is 3 years into his deal: one year of underperformance relative to the contract's AAV, one short but fantastic season, and one that's roughly what you'd need to stay above water on a 10-year deal that includes expected decline years on the back end. 

I'd be more in favor of signing Soto, to answer your question.  With the likely NL DH, Soto will hit enough over the contract's length even if he can't play the field anymore - it puts a floor on how bad it can get.  He's on a Hall of Fame track despite little defensive value.  I worry for Padres fans what Machado looks like in the last 3 years of his deal when both the bat and the glove would be expected to regress significantly (leaving enough to justify 1B or DH?  Who knows?).  Maybe inflation makes it stay above water and look fantastic.  Maybe not.

It's just a little soon to tell.  I mean, any 10-year deal is risky.  As I said at the time, though, I thought Machado was a much better deal for the team than Harper's contract was for Philly. 

Soto is only 22. Much younger than Machado when he signed his contract.

Sure, but he won't be when he gets to FA.  I took that as the question.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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https://theathletic.com/2865723/2021/10/03/with-manager-change-expected-padres-enter-the-offseason-on-shaky-ground/?source=user_shared_article

Dave Cameron is leaving the Padres. For thoses who arent familiar, Dave was the managing editor of Fangraphs, until Preller plucked him and put him in R&D for the Padres. He quickly proved his worth, pushing the Padres to acquire Cronenworth and Austin Nola, in additon to Grisham.
I'd love this.  IIRC, the publisher / owner of Fangraphs is David Appelman, who lives around DC.  While Cameron and the Fangraphs originals came from the USS Mariner site, I think he was living on the east coast before the San Diego job. OTOH, if he moved out there, why the heck would anyone move back?

He'd be exactly what we need.  Only condition is we don't take Hosmer's contract as a condition of the hire ( :lol: )

And Slate's write. Cameron actually got a lot of surprised comments and some grief for going to that organization just after (or maybe right before) the Hosmer contract because he had been so critical of signing Hosmer long term.

Offline welch

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Read the entire article. Preller, it says, has hired pals, and most of the organization has learned never to disagree. Preller likes yes-men, and has been criticized for hiring a rookie manager, Tingler, who could not hold the clubhouse together when pressure turned up. The team collapsed. Further, Preller traded away good prospects so that they had only one (or two?) left when they came to the Nats trying to deal for Max. Article says the Dodgers did not worry at the trade deadline, knowing that the Padres would not trade their only good prospect to rent Max, even though it was clear that they needed an ace just like Scherzer.

That's mainly what the article discusses. I concluded that I want Rizzo as the Nats GM, rather than Preller. The article might have mentioned Cameron, but that's not what I focused on. Maybe time I re-read it.

https://theathletic.com/2858560/2021/10/01/inside-the-padres-collapse-manager-gm-under-scrutiny-after-club-crumbles-down-the-stretch/


Offline Natsinpwc

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Soto will be younger when he reaches free agency than Machado was.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Soto will be younger when he reaches free agency than Machado was.
Not by much, though.  both debuted at 19

Online imref

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The door is open if Zimmerman wants to stay:

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“Ryan Zimmerman has a place on this roster as a player as long as Mike Rizzo is the GM,” said Rizzo. “So whenever he wants to take a major league contract, just call me up and we’ll give him one.”

Offline welch

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Ah. Two different articles. The one for October 1 went through trades that Preller made from 2018 onward. They seem catastrophic. If Cameron was "influential" from 2018 until the end of this season, then he only thing to be said for him might be that he opposed each and every move.

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Preller’s success rate with trades, on the other hand, took a hit, at least in the early returns. From Aug. 30, 2020, to July 30, 2021 — essentially, one trade deadline to the other — he acquired 11 players who are either on the Padres’ current roster or injured list. Most of the deals, particularly those for starting pitchers Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove, looked favorable for the Padres at first glance. But the 11 acquisitions have accounted for 9 fWAR as of Thursday while costing the Padres 31 players, most with six years of control. For comparison’s sake, Tatis has accumulated (6.2) fWAR while playing in only 127 games.

After parting with so much young talent, one rival executive noted that Preller seemed almost cornered at this year’s deadline, unable to flex the prospect muscle he had in the past. The Padres’ system, a top-10 mainstay in Baseball America’s rankings the past five seasons, dropped to 17th in the publication’s midseason update in August, mostly because of trades and promotions to the majors.

So, when the Nationals made ace right-hander Max Scherzer available at the deadline, the Dodgers did not necessarily fear the Padres the way they had previously, believing the only way Preller could acquire Scherzer was by trading Double-A shortstop CJ Abrams, one of the game’s top 10 prospects even after he broke his left tibia and sprained his MCL in late June. Sure enough, the Dodgers trumped the Padres, landing both Scherzer and shortstop Trea Turner for a package headed by two top-100 prospects, catcher Keibert Ruiz and right-hander Josiah Gray.

Power hitting and starting pitching were the Padres’ biggest needs at the deadline. Preller pursued a deal for Twins slugger Nelson Cruz, one of Machado’s former teammates with the Orioles, intending to explore his viability at first base, a position Cruz had not played in 17 major-league seasons. Cruz might have provided not just an offensive boost but also a veteran clubhouse presence. Instead, he went to the Rays for two well-regarded pitching prospects, Joe Ryan and Drew  Strotman.

And this, on players acquired and traded, especially in a big deal last season:

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The impact of the Padres’ questionable decision-making and flawed roster construction also surfaces in other ways. At least four of the team’s high-priced players — Hosmer, right fielder Wil Myers, left-handed reliever Drew Pomeranz and utility man Jurickson Profar — have produced far below their salary levels, making them difficult to trade. And one of Preller’s more fascinating deals, a seven-player deal last August in which he landed catcher Austin Nola from the Mariners, now looks problematic.

The Padres remain high on Nola, who is under team control through 2025 but turns 32 on Dec. 28 and made three trips to the injured list this season, appearing in only 56 games. The two other players they acquired, relievers Austin Adams and Dan Altavilla, were out of minor-league options this season, limiting the team’s roster flexibility. And for Nola, Preller gave up four players — infielder Ty France, who could have been, at minimum, a right-handed platoon partner for Hosmer; outfielder Taylor Trammell; reliever Andres Muñoz and backup catcher Luis Torrens, all of whom have contributed to the Mariners or are expected to contribute in the future.


Offline Slateman

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Soto is only 22. Much younger than Machado when he signed his contract.
4 years difference. Upon free agency, Soto will be one year younget than Machado. Not really much younger

Online nfotiu

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I'd love this.  IIRC, the publisher / owner of Fangraphs is David Appelman, who lives around DC.  While Cameron and the Fangraphs originals came from the USS Mariner site, I think he was living on the east coast before the San Diego job. OTOH, if he moved out there, why the heck would anyone move back?

He'd be exactly what we need.  Only condition is we don't take Hosmer's contract as a condition of the hire ( :lol: )

And Slate's write. Cameron actually got a lot of surprised comments and some grief for going to that organization just after (or maybe right before) the Hosmer contract because he had been so critical of signing Hosmer long term.

I think these 10+ year deals only make sense if the team wins something in the first half of the contract.   They had a little bit of success in 2020, but if this year wasn't a blip and they have a few down years, then that contract is going to be a boat anchor for a while in a couple years.  It's really hard to objectively justify 10+ year contracts to 26 yo hitters no matter who they are.

Online zimm_da_kid

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Seiya Suzuki please and thank you.  The top Cuban and Japanese pros are always undervalued

Offline Slateman

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Ah. Two different articles. The one for October 1 went through trades that Preller made from 2018 onward. They seem catastrophic. If Cameron was "influential" from 2018 until the end of this season, then he only thing to be said for him might be that he opposed each and every move.

And this, on players acquired and traded, especially in a big deal last season:



Both of those articles simply gloss over the rather significant injuries that plagued the Padres this season.
Pomeranz has been an elite reliever when healthy. Sorry, but 8 million a year for a dude to give you sub 2 ERA out of the pen from the left side is a steal and its really not Preller's fault he got injured. Profar is in year 1 of 3. He's 28 and just had his worst season. Not sure we can start jumping down Preller's throat for that.

Don't really see the issue with the Austin Nola deal. Like, yea, Ty France would have been nice, but they have plenty of options for first base and the infield, and Nola has been hurt all season. Taylor Trammell has no position, as he doesn't hit well enough to play a corner. He's basically Andrew Stevenson. So, maybe not a great deal, but it's certainly not some awful deal either. They basically replaced Ty France with Crowenworth.

Also, it seems like they're forgetting that Preller traded for Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, and had to give up all of one top 100 prospect.

Say what you want, but that team was far more competitive for most of the season and largely fell off due to injuries.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Both of those articles simply gloss over the rather significant injuries that plagued the Padres this season.
Pomeranz has been an elite reliever when healthy. Sorry, but 8 million a year for a dude to give you sub 2 ERA out of the pen from the left side is a steal and its really not Preller's fault he got injured. Profar is in year 1 of 3. He's 28 and just had his worst season. Not sure we can start jumping down Preller's throat for that.

The other side of this view would be that Pomeranz getting hurt and Profar being wildly inconsistent year-to-year are hardly news.  I didn't really have much issue with the Pomeranz contract - I mean, at least he's good - but the Profar one was a bit much. 

Other than afterglow from top-prospect status, what screams "3 year deal" about a 28-year-old with 3 WAR across 2000+ plate appearances?  Dude clearly has some talent, but it's pretty hard for a switch-hitter with power and who plays a pile of positions to get dumped for peanuts by two teams by the time he's 27.  One good season isn't likely to fix those issues.

Offline Slateman

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The other side of this view would be that Pomeranz getting hurt and Profar being wildly inconsistent year-to-year are hardly news.  I didn't really have much issue with the Pomeranz contract - I mean, at least he's good - but the Profar one was a bit much. 

Other than afterglow from top-prospect status, what screams "3 year deal" about a 28-year-old with 3 WAR across 2000+ plate appearances?  Dude clearly has some talent, but it's pretty hard for a switch-hitter with power and who plays a pile of positions to get dumped for peanuts by two teams by the time he's 27.  One good season isn't likely to fix those issues.
In the three seasons prior, Profar had posted seasons of 1.3, 1.3, and 2.8 WAR seasons. He was going into his age 28 season with three years of decent production for a role/bench player.

Its 7 million AAV. This doesnt make or break a team. We spent that on Rosenthal.

The Padres failure this season is rooted more in the dysfunction of an analytical heavy front office and an analytical heavy manager, with a player cadre that was young and in need of a much more human touch.

Offline welch

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Speculation / rumors / guess around the Mets are that Boras will push Conforto to take the qualifying offer, but that the Mets and Stroman expect the pitcher to sign with the Cubs. A quote I read: "They seem to want me and I want to go where I'm wanted". That would be surprising, since he was their best pitcher to pitch all season. Somebody the Nats could use until miracles happen and, in a few years, Cavalli is ready.

Online imref

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Escobar returning on a one-year deal

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Escobar returning on a one-year deal
https://www.mlb.com/nationals/news/alcides-escobar-signs-one-year-deal-with-nationals

no terms given. 

Nice to get this resolved quickly.  I don't think this would block us from any move on infielders, but it's nice to know you have a good floor at SS going into the offseason.  He was a much better #2 hitter than I figured him to be. 

Offline Five Banners

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https://www.mlb.com/nationals/news/alcides-escobar-signs-one-year-deal-with-nationals

no terms given. 

Nice to get this resolved quickly.  I don't think this would block us from any move on infielders, but it's nice to know you have a good floor at SS going into the offseason.  He was a much better #2 hitter than I figured him to be. 

Agreed, glad they got that taken care of quickly

Online zimm_da_kid

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https://www.mlb.com/nationals/news/alcides-escobar-signs-one-year-deal-with-nationals

no terms given. 

Nice to get this resolved quickly.  I don't think this would block us from any move on infielders, but it's nice to know you have a good floor at SS going into the offseason.  He was a much better #2 hitter than I figured him to be. 

I totally agree, yet I pray he’s not the #2 hitter next year.  If we get the dh he would be a good double leadoff guy in the 9 hole.  Part of me is hoping we go Soto in the #2 hole next year.  That’s the equivalent of ≈30 extra PA over the course of a full season