it happens enough that oven mitts became fashionable. Happened to Trea in 2019. There's probably a formula that could estimate whether it makes sense. Biggest variable of course is the likelihood of any successful steal of home, then probably an estimate of injuries on steal attempts per attempt, and then WPA added by the steal vs WPA lost via lack of success. WPA added would have to be diminished by the likelihood of injury and the subtracted diminishment of the likelihood of a championship. My guess is going from 4 to 5 runs didn't add a heck of a lot of win probability or championship probability.
So the solution is not to run the bases? And the Red Sox had the tying run at the plate the next half inning.
