Author Topic: Post season awards  (Read 149 times)

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Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Post season awards
« Topic Start: September 23, 2021, 11:18:11 AM »
MVP in the NL will be interesting. In looking at the NL leader boards, it looks like a lot of the best individual performers are going to miss the playoffs.  The fWAR leaders are Harper, Soto, and Tatis.  There isn't a playoff player in the top 5 in OPS.

Turner and Brandon Crawford are the top fWAR guys on playoff teams, and Crawford (4.9 fWAR) as well as Muncy (4.7) are further behind Turner than Turner (5.7) is behind Harper (6.4).  Gonna guess NL MVP is wide open.  Freeman and Tyler O'Neil should get consideration, too, given the teams they play for (ATL and StL).  I'm blowing off the cinci guys. 

Offline imref

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Re: Post season awards
« Reply #1: September 23, 2021, 12:03:20 PM »
MVP in the NL will be interesting. In looking at the NL leader boards, it looks like a lot of the best individual performers are going to miss the playoffs.  The fWAR leaders are Harper, Soto, and Tatis.  There isn't a playoff player in the top 5 in OPS.

Turner and Brandon Crawford are the top fWAR guys on playoff teams, and Crawford (4.9 fWAR) as well as Muncy (4.7) are further behind Turner than Turner (5.7) is behind Harper (6.4).  Gonna guess NL MVP is wide open.  Freeman and Tyler O'Neil should get consideration, too, given the teams they play for (ATL and StL).  I'm blowing off the cinci guys. 

Does Max have a shot?

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Post season awards
« Reply #2: September 23, 2021, 12:05:07 PM »
Does Max have a shot?
does Wainright?

I don't think there's a clear pitcher like in the years when pitchers won MVP.  Max may not be the best pitcher on his team.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Post season awards
« Reply #3: September 23, 2021, 12:10:14 PM »
Does Max have a shot?
No it’s a two person race between Tatis and Harper. A week ago the odds here were reversed.  However Tatis Jr had the dust up with Machado and also dropped an easy fly ball that cost them a game. His team has been slumping in a major way and the Phillies have at least been treading water.  For me should be Harper, Soto and Tatis Jr but I am biased.  I don’t think they should have factor in the built in WAR advantage he has a SS when he is not that good defensively. 

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/mvp/

Max is the Cy Young favorite and he deserves it.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/cy-young/

Offline Slateman

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Re: Post season awards
« Reply #4: September 23, 2021, 12:40:02 PM »
I kind of want the two MVPs to not be on playoff teams

Online nfotiu

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Re: Post season awards
« Reply #5: September 23, 2021, 01:37:48 PM »
Soto's numbers have been otherworldly since the blow up.  I think it shows a little bit that is a bit easier to put up gawdy OPS and WAR numbers while playing relaxing, meaningless games.   I always wondered what Trout's numbers would really look like if he was playing intense, pressure filled games where they were constantly counting on him for game winning hits to keep pace in the division and other teams were focusing on not letting him beat them.   

I don't think the MVP should ever go to a guy who's been playing meaningless games since June. 

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Post season awards
« Reply #6: September 23, 2021, 02:11:33 PM »
Soto's numbers have been otherworldly since the blow up.  I think it shows a little bit that is a bit easier to put up gawdy OPS and WAR numbers while playing relaxing, meaningless games.   I always wondered what Trout's numbers would really look like if he was playing intense, pressure filled games where they were constantly counting on him for game winning hits to keep pace in the division and other teams were focusing on not letting him beat them.   

I don't think the MVP should ever go to a guy who's been playing meaningless games since June.
I think just the opposite. He has little protection in the lineup and his walk rate shows they are pitching around him. Also added stress knowing you need to score lots of runs with a crappy pitching staff. 

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Post season awards
« Reply #7: September 23, 2021, 02:12:24 PM »
I kind of want the two MVPs to not be on playoff teams
Should just change it to best player.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Post season awards
« Reply #8: September 23, 2021, 02:16:24 PM »
No it’s a two person race between Tatis and Harper. A week ago the odds here were reversed.  However Tatis Jr had the dust up with Machado and also dropped an easy fly ball that cost them a game. His team has been slumping in a major way and the Phillies have at least been treading water.  For me should be Harper, Soto and Tatis Jr but I am biased.  I don’t think they should have factor in the built in WAR advantage he has a SS when he is not that good defensively. 

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/mvp/

Max is the Cy Young favorite and he deserves it.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/cy-young/


Tatis doesn't get nearly as much of a positional WAR bump this season because he has been playing RF/CF for a bit now, because he is injured which is probably also a reason why his SS numbers this season were SO bad. Granted, he isn't the best SS, and is very likely average at best at the position.


Still, MVP should go to Harper.

Offline varoadking

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Re: Post season awards
« Reply #9: September 23, 2021, 02:33:20 PM »
I don't think the MVP should ever go to a guy who's been playing meaningless games since June.

They may not be meaningless to the other team...

Re: Post season awards
« Reply #10: September 26, 2021, 07:48:19 AM »
I think the AL is more debatable. Vlad Jr could get the triple crown and Shohei has magical season.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Post season awards
« Reply #11: September 26, 2021, 07:54:50 AM »
Soto's numbers have been otherworldly since the blow up.  I think it shows a little bit that is a bit easier to put up gawdy OPS and WAR numbers while playing relaxing, meaningless games.   I always wondered what Trout's numbers would really look like if he was playing intense, pressure filled games where they were constantly counting on him for game winning hits to keep pace in the division and other teams were focusing on not letting him beat them.   

I don't think the MVP should ever go to a guy who's been playing meaningless games since June. 
Trout made the playoffs in 2014. He really struggled that season at the plate, posting a melancholy .287/.377/.561

Offline Slateman

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Re: Post season awards
« Reply #12: September 26, 2021, 07:57:16 AM »
I kind of want the two MVPs to not be on playoff teams

Padres eliminated. Down to just Philly.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Post season awards
« Reply #13: September 29, 2021, 04:54:20 PM »
Jay Jaffe's breakdown of the NL MVP cases for Soto, Harper, Tatis, Turner, Crawford, and Goldschmidt, with a discussion of Burnes and Wheeler.  Suggests Turner has a nice case, but he's not the focus of either of his teams and his offense has a significant gap to the first 3.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-fascinating-and-still-unsettled-nl-mvp-race/
His preference is Harper over Soto:
Quote
All of this is a lot to consider, but having dug through the numbers I still come back to my original trio of Harper, Soto, and Tatis. Going completely context-neutral, my arrow would point to Soto, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to consider context, particularly in a close race. The fact that Harper’s offense both before and after the All-Star break has been a bit better than Soto’s, in a much more competitive context — even if the Phillies do come up just short — is worth enough that to my mind it tilts the balance. Bryce Harper is my NL MVP pick, but I wouldn’t blame anyone for looking at the same set of numbers and concluding it should be Soto, and I’ll be fascinated to see where the voters land.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Post season awards
« Reply #14: October 01, 2021, 11:57:52 PM »
Should just change it to best player.

Agreed

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Post season awards
« Reply #15: October 02, 2021, 02:28:10 PM »
Fwiw, Soto is now 1st in fWAR and Trea second in the nl