Many here have said 2023. I think the Nats sign a couple of free agent starting pitcher plus a hitter and they are back in it next year.
They were winning through June of this season when Schwarber got hurt and it became clear that Strasburg needed surgery. That knocked them over as they began a string against the Padres, Dodgers, and Giants. If they had played 50/50 in those three series, then the team would not have traded Scherzer, Turner, Gomes, and the rest. Still would have been hard with only Max Scherzer a sure-fire winner: Corbin has been dismal all year, the young pitchers they expected as 4th and 5th starters spiraling down and crashing. Likely the team would have "bought" more pitching at the trade deadline.