Author Topic: When do the Nationals become competitive in the NL east again?  (Read 795 times)

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Offline YadiSTAR aka Smithian

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The Nationals "very talented team" got their asses handed to them by the Orioles before the deadline.

Online Slateman

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Both of the relievers we gave up have ERAs over 6 since leaving

Online Slateman

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The Nationals "very talented team" got their asses handed to them by the Orioles before the deadline.
Lets be honest, it had some premium talent, but it wasnt very talented.

There were four talents: Scherzer, Turner, Schwarber, and Soto. There were some nice role players, but the injuries to Ross and Strasburg, coupled with the unproductivitity of Corbin, Lester, Garcia, and Fedde crippled this team.

Offline greven

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Nothing. None of it is nonsense. Your description, "massively talented team" is right on target. Among the names you mentioned, in addition we gave up our two best relievers.

So I did a quick WAR tally between the players that left and the players that came in. This is basically the most favorable review possible since half the players that came in are in the minors and have accrued 0 WAR, not to mention things like improvements due to young age and service time.

Leavers
Scherzer 2.1
Turner 1.2
Gomes 0.1
Harrison 0.2
Hand -0.5
Hudson -0.2
Lester 0
Scwarber 0.7

Arrivals
Gray -0.1
Ruiz -0.3
Adams 1
Thompson -0.2
Thomas 0.7

Leavers total 3.6 WAR, arrivals total 1.1 WAR

So we would have 2.5 more wins give or take with the 'immensely talented players'. Even if you gave 5 more wins out of pure generosity we would still be sitting 8 games back.

Yeah there's a lot of nonsense here

Offline imref

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Lets be honest, it had some premium talent, but it wasnt very talented.

There were four talents: Scherzer, Turner, Schwarber, and Soto. There were some nice role players, but the injuries to Ross and Strasburg, coupled with the unproductivitity of Corbin, Lester, Garcia, and Fedde crippled this team.

Garcia?

Online Count Walewski

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I'm on team full rebuild, no shortcuts. 2023 at the EARLIEST and only because so many of the prospects they received at the trade deadline are ML ready or close to it. The Astros rebuild and Cubs rebuild, both of which resulted in World Series runs and years of postseason appearances, took about 4 years each with really bad teams in the interim. Attempting to compete in 2022 would be a huge mistake: the likely outcome would be a team that is merely mediocre and wins nothing while getting a crummy draft pick. The 2022 Nationals should be a terrible team that competes for #1 overall pick with the likes of the D'Backs and the Orioles. The money would be better spent by the Lerners investing it elsewhere until they sign the 2024 equivalent of Jayson Werth to the Nats or Jon Lester to the Cubs.

If you must spend money, try to sign the obvious rebuild pieces like JoJo Gray to long-term extensions now. This buys more time for the rebuild to truly take place and bear fruit as well.

Online welch

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Garcia?

Probably meant Robles, who is rated as -.6 WAR on Fangraphs and -.2 WAR on Baseball Reference. Fangraphs has Lane Thomas as .4 WAR and Baseball Reference has him .4, which would mean that Fangraphs rates Thomas as one WAR better than Robles, and BR at .6 of a WAR. This ignores the fact that Robles played 64 games for the Nats while Thomas has played 20 games plus 32 for St Louis.

But, then, WAR is a very rough way to compare two different players. Branch Rickey used a similar method of rolling together several stats, weighted as he thought useful.

In no way does "WAR" add up to expected wins.

Offline imref

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Probably meant Robles, who is rated as -.6 WAR on Fangraphs and -.2 WAR on Baseball Reference. Fangraphs has Lane Thomas as .4 WAR and Baseball Reference has him .4, which would mean that Fangraphs rates Thomas as one WAR better than Robles, and BR at .6 of a WAR. This ignores the fact that Robles played 64 games for the Nats while Thomas has played 20 games plus 32 for St Louis.

But, then, WAR is a very rough way to compare two different players. Branch Rickey used a similar method of rolling together several stats, weighted as he thought useful.

In no way does "WAR" add up to expected wins.

That makes sense.

Online Slateman

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So I did a quick WAR tally between the players that left and the players that came in. This is basically the most favorable review possible since half the players that came in are in the minors and have accrued 0 WAR, not to mention things like improvements due to young age and service time.

Leavers
Scherzer 2.1
Turner 1.2
Gomes 0.1
Harrison 0.2
Hand -0.5
Hudson -0.2
Lester 0
Scwarber 0.7

Arrivals
Gray -0.1
Ruiz -0.3
Adams 1
Thompson -0.2
Thomas 0.7

Leavers total 3.6 WAR, arrivals total 1.1 WAR

So we would have 2.5 more wins give or take with the 'immensely talented players'. Even if you gave 5 more wins out of pure generosity we would still be sitting 8 games back.

Yeah there's a lot of nonsense here

WAR =/= actual wins

Offline bluestreak

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Nothing. None of it is nonsense. Your description, "massively talented team" is right on target. Among the names you mentioned, in addition we gave up our two best relievers.

The team went into a horrendous tailspin late July, with some very embarrassing losses, in particular, we were swept by the Orioles! The timing of that tailspin was unfortunate, every team has one, but we did it at the deadline. And I think  blowing it up was an emotional rather than sensible decision. If the tailspin had been a month earlier we'd have rebounded by the deadline.  And right now we would be enjoying a division race which I think we'd have won, but it wouldn't matter, there would have been exciting baseball for two months, rather than the pitiful garbage we're stuck with.

The bullpen was still bad and they had been swept by the Orioles. Schwarber Had just sustained a bad injury and nats were 8 games out. And you can’t look at this is vacuum. The Nats farm system was bare. The option was, bank on coming back from 8 games back and making a weak playoff run or restocking the farm. I think Rizzo made the right decision. And I never say blow it up.

Offline greven

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WAR =/= actual wins
No crap Sherlock. But there's no clean way to measure what ifs so it will have to do.

Offline GataNats

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Being 8 games back wasn't insurmountable. Bell, Harrison, Lester,Gomes  Schwarber, Turner have been fantastic since the trade. Max is 5-0, has allowed five earned runs over 43 innings (1.05 ERA) with 63 strikeouts since  joining LA

Lester has been absolute sh@t before, during, and after the trade

Offline imref

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A reminder that our rotation behind max was fedde, Corbin, Lester, and Ross. 

Offline hohoho

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So I did a quick WAR tally between the players that left and the players that came in. This is basically the most favorable review possible since half the players that came in are in the minors and have accrued 0 WAR, not to mention things like improvements due to young age and service time.

Leavers
Scherzer 2.1
Turner 1.2
Gomes 0.1
Harrison 0.2
Hand -0.5
Hudson -0.2
Lester 0
Scwarber 0.7

Arrivals
Gray -0.1
Ruiz -0.3
Adams 1
Thompson -0.2
Thomas 0.7

Leavers total 3.6 WAR, arrivals total 1.1 WAR

So we would have 2.5 more wins give or take with the 'immensely talented players'. Even if you gave 5 more wins out of pure generosity we would still be sitting 8 games back.

Yeah there's a lot of nonsense here
Speaking of nonsense: Where did you get those numbers?

The real numbers:
Scherzer 4.9
Turner 5.1
Gomes 2.2
Harrison 2.6
Hand -.1
Hudson .8
Lester -.3
Schwarber 2.7

Gray -.3
Ruiz -.4
Adams .6
Thompson -.1
Thomas .3

That is a difference of 18.2 games.

Offline greven

  • Posts: 113
Speaking of nonsense: Where did you get those numbers?

The real numbers:
Scherzer 4.9
Turner 5.1
Gomes 2.2
Harrison 2.6
Hand -.1
Hudson .8
Lester -.3
Schwarber 2.7

Gray -.3
Ruiz -.4
Adams .6
Thompson -.1
Thomas .3

That is a difference of 18.2 games.

Uhhhh you should only be looking at the numbers accrued after the trade? You know, if you are trying to gauge where we would have been if we had not made said trades?

Online Slateman

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Speaking of nonsense: Where did you get those numbers?

The real numbers:
Scherzer 4.9
Turner 5.1
Gomes 2.2
Harrison 2.6
Hand -.1
Hudson .8
Lester -.3
Schwarber 2.7

Gray -.3
Ruiz -.4
Adams .6
Thompson -.1
Thomas .3

That is a difference of 18.2 games.
WAR =/= actual wins

Offline hohoho

  • Posts: 1931
Uhhhh you should only be looking at the numbers accrued after the trade? You know, if you are trying to gauge where we would have been if we had not made said trades?
In other words, ignore reality. No way they ran up the totals in a few weeks. They are still wrong no matter how you slice it. He probably made most of them up.

Offline greven

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In other words, ignore reality. They are still wrong no matter how you slice it.
Hey man its ok to have a dumb opinion here and there, no need to lash out like that

Also you can take them easily from baseball reference fyi

Offline hohoho

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Hey man its ok to have a dumb opinion here and there, no need to lash out like that

Also you can take them easily from baseball reference fyi
Sorry.
That is where I got them.

Offline greven

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Sorry.
That is where I got them.
Yeah if you look at the breakdowns it gives you the WAR accrued per team in the year

Offline YadiSTAR aka Smithian

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I don't even know what we're arguing.

Offline imref

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maybe Rizzo should kick the tires on Freddy Freeman?

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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I don't even know what we're arguing.

We're arguing whether, when judging whether a trade was good, we should care about whether what matters is what happens only after the trade (G-Dawg, blue corner) or what happened before and after the trade (Santa Claus, red corner). 

Both pugilists seem to hew closely to WAR and ignore the bigger picture: they seem to agree, as the standings make totally unambiguous, that this team sucked before the trade; it sucks more after; and most of the guys traded were leaving anyway after the season finished sucking.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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maybe Rizzo should kick the tires on Freddy Freeman?

I would love that.  Would piss the Braves off so much

Offline Natsinpwc

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maybe Rizzo should kick the tires on Freddy Freeman?
Expensive tires. Hard to see him leaving Atlanta.  Let’s drive up the price.