Strasburg Contract

[aspenbubba]

What could be the largest albatross in Nats history has long term implications for the re-tooling of the team. My understanding is that contracts of this length and worth are covered by insurance ( Lloyds of London) if a player is injured. My question is if Stas is unable to play again at a MLB level does the insurance kick in and what if he retires does his renumeration still count against the CBT.

[Mattionals]

What could be the biggest albatross in Nats history has long term implications for the re-tooling of the team. My understanding is that contracts of this length and worth are covered by insurance ( Lloyds of London) if a player is injured. My question is if Stas is unable to play again at a MLB level does the insurance kick in and what if he retires does his renumeration still count against the CBT.

His AAV always counts against the CBT, at least in this current iteration.

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

But this is baseball, everything can be fixed by throwing more cash on the fire   

[Slateman]

The Nats are basically playing with about a 50 million luxury tax penalty. Thats why Rizzo was willing to blow up the team, including Turner

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The Nats are basically playing with about a 50 million luxury tax penalty. Thats why Rizzo was willing to blow up the team, including Turner

huh?  They were below the tax threshold even before the deals  

[Slateman]

huh?  They were below the tax threshold even before the deals  

Because those deals are worthless. So when they start building a team, Rizzo's budget is 130-140 million, not 180-190 million

[Natsinpwc]

Because those deals are worthless. So when they start building a team, Rizzo's budget is 130-140 million, not 180-190 million

Don’t forget the deferred money they will be paying.  Although it does not count against the cap they will want save that. At least for the next few years till the team is ready to compete.

[nats4ever]

What could be the largest albatross in Nats history has long term implications for the re-tooling of the team. My understanding is that contracts of this length and worth are covered by insurance ( Lloyds of London) if a player is injured. My question is if Stas is unable to play again at a MLB level does the insurance kick in and what if he retires does his renumeration still count against the CBT.

You are saying this because he's hurt. Were you saying this after the world series with his performance?

[Slateman]

You are saying this because he's hurt. Were you saying this after the world series with his performance?

There were several of us who wanted Rendon over Strasburg

[aspenbubba]

You are saying this because he's hurt. Were you saying this after the world series with his performance?

No I’m asking because he may never play at his former level again and tho someone answered above that the contract counts against the CBT whether he retires or not.

[Slateman]

Yes, the contract counts against the luxury tax

[hotshot]

There were several of us who wanted Rendon over Strasburg

And I was one. I'm 180 degrees off from Rizzo in valuing position player standouts over their counterparts on the mound. I say that understanding neither Stras nor Rendon are exactly stellar examples of staying on the field.

I think there were many more than a "few" Nats fans who would've preferred to pay Rendon over Stras. And, yes, even after the WS.

[Natsinpwc]

And I was one. I'm 180 degrees off from Rizzo in valuing position player standouts over their counterparts on the mound. I say that understanding neither Stras nor Rendon are exactly stellar examples of staying on the field.

I think there were many more than a "few" Nats fans who would've preferred to pay Rendon over Stras. And, yes, even after the WS.

I’m there too but I believe others have a good point in that Rendon probably did not want to stay in DC. However they could have used the money for others including Trea. 

[Slateman]

I’m there too but I believe others have a good point in that Rendon probably did not want to stay in DC. However they could have used the money for others including Trea. 

I dont think Rendon did either.

But I also believe that if any othet team had signed Strasburg to the deal that the Lerners did, we would have mocked them mercilessly. Even immediately after the WS.

[Natsinpwc]

I dont think Rendon did either.

But I also believe that if any othet team had signed Strasburg to the deal that the Lerners did, we would have mocked them mercilessly. Even immediately after the WS.

Of course. It’s what we do as fans 

Kieboom is a bum. Get rid of him. Oh now he is hitting. Great we kept him. 

[nfotiu]

And I was one. I'm 180 degrees off from Rizzo in valuing position player standouts over their counterparts on the mound. I say that understanding neither Stras nor Rendon are exactly stellar examples of staying on the field.

I think there were many more than a "few" Nats fans who would've preferred to pay Rendon over Stras. And, yes, even after the WS.

It's so hard to objectively justify these long term deals to position players that pay them through their 30s.   If you look at the top 20 in OPS in the majors right now, only 4 of them are over 29, and only Votto is over 31.   Even if he recovers well from his injury, the Rendon deal is likely to look pretty stinky too for the rest of the contract.

There can be an argument made that an ace starter is a much rarer commodity and more worth the big money since he makes a bigger impact vs who'd replace him than a position player.   I don't really buy into past injury history being a solid predictor of future injuries (unless it is a specific recurring injury), and there is probably some element of confirmation bias when it comes to Strasburg being injured again.  Although, it does seem this generation of 6'5 95+mph pitchers are not very durable and are probably not great bets for big, future deals.   

 

[Elvir Ovcina]

It's so hard to objectively justify these long term deals to position players that pay them through their 30s.   If you look at the top 20 in OPS in the majors right now, only 4 of them are over 29, and only Votto is over 31.   Even if he recovers well from his injury, the Rendon deal is likely to look pretty stinky too for the rest of the contract.

There can be an argument made that an ace starter is a much rarer commodity and more worth the big money since he makes a bigger impact vs who'd replace him than a position player.   I don't really buy into past injury history being a solid predictor of future injuries (unless it is a specific recurring injury), and there is probably some element of confirmation bias when it comes to Strasburg being injured again.  Although, it does seem this generation of 6'5 95+mph pitchers are not very durable and are probably not great bets for big, future deals.

The specific predictor with Strasburg is Tommy John.  Very few starters who have Tommy John in their early-mid 20s last into their mid-30s (although, to be fair, not that many starters who haven't had Tommy John last into their mid-30s either).  That was the same risk they were already taking with Corbin (and refused to take with Zimmermann), which made it especially weird to roll those same dice twice.

[hotshot]

I’m there too but I believe others have a good point in that Rendon probably did not want to stay in DC. However they could have used the money for others including Trea.

Yeah, Rendon apparently wanted out and there was probably no way to counter that but ... got a feeling if Rizzo and the Lerners were gonna pay one, it still woulda been Stras. To my mind, too many pitchers (at least these days) are just so "fragile."

[Mattionals]

Yeah, Rendon apparently wanted out and there was probably no way to counter that but ... got a feeling if Rizzo and the Lerners were gonna pay one, it still woulda been Stras. To my mind, too many pitchers (at least these days) are just so "fragile."

Pitchers are "fragile" because what is being asked of them is stuff the human body just can't hold up doing long term. You don't see guys coming up throwing 85 mph, pitching complete games, and having 20 year careers. The game shifted to throwing harder and harder, and even though genetically each generation seems to be able to have more and more guys who can throw that hard, the wear and tear on throwing that hard with nasty breaking stuff breaks the body down way faster than throwing 85. I think we are way past the point of going backwards, and we all have to accept that pitchers are going to fail, and their careers are going to be shorter. Then again, position players seemingly have shorter careers than the previous generations as well. Call it "cleaning up the sport" or what have you, but it's probably a combo of degrading bat speeds and mounting injuries.

[catocony]

The ball needs to be deadened a bit.  Then pitchers won't be afraid to pitch to contact, and hitters will have to swing normally again.  I long for the days of the 2.5 hour, 3-2 ballgame with few home runs, strikeouts and walks and tons of balls hit into play.  Steals, hit and run, lots of double plays.  Basically, baseball of the late 20th century/early 2000s. 

Pitchers burning their arms out throwing high 90s every pitch is bad. 

[Mattionals]

The ball needs to be deadened a bit.  Then pitchers won't be afraid to pitch to contact, and hitters will have to swing normally again.  I long for the days of the 2.5 hour, 3-2 ballgame with few home runs, strikeouts and walks and tons of balls hit into play.  Steals, hit and run, lots of double plays.  Basically, baseball of the late 20th century/early 2000s. 

Pitchers burning their arms out throwing high 90s every pitch is bad.

Yea, I'd love to actually see less 30+ homer seasons for players, and more lower scoring games. 12-6 just isn't fun baseball to watch.

[GburgNatsFan]

Sarcasm, or no?

Yea, I'd love to actually see less 30+ homer seasons for players, and more lower scoring games. 12-6 just isn't fun baseball to watch.

[GburgNatsFan]

And no 'roids.

Pitchers are "fragile" because what is being asked of them is stuff the human body just can't hold up doing long term. You don't see guys coming up throwing 85 mph, pitching complete games, and having 20 year careers. The game shifted to throwing harder and harder, and even though genetically each generation seems to be able to have more and more guys who can throw that hard, the wear and tear on throwing that hard with nasty breaking stuff breaks the body down way faster than throwing 85. I think we are way past the point of going backwards, and we all have to accept that pitchers are going to fail, and their careers are going to be shorter. Then again, position players seemingly have shorter careers than the previous generations as well. Call it "cleaning up the sport" or what have you, but it's probably a combo of degrading bat speeds and mounting injuries.

[Mattionals]

Sarcasm, or no?

Seriously.

[sixthree175]

What is the probability that Stras will be healthy on Opening Day 2022?  10%?
By his birthday in 2022, when he'll turn 34!? 50%?