Author Topic: Strasburg Contract  (Read 1024 times)

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #50: October 19, 2021, 09:07:16 AM »
I think it is the lack of precedents for a successful resumption of pitching after Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (TOS) surgery for nerve relief that has people assuming the worst.  It's not that there's a bad history, it's that there's little to no history.  The link says TOS surgery's been done on pitchers fewer than 20 times for either what Harris had or what Stras had, and we happen to have 2 of them. 
https://rockymountainbrainandspineinstitute.com/thoracic-outlet-syndrome-lesser-known-but-nearly-as-devastating-to-pitchers-as-tommy-john/#:~:text=Less%20than%2020%20major%20league,two%20main%20types%20of%20TOS.

The article is dated about a year ago (9/15/2020). The list of those who have had it isn't impressive.  It incudes:
Quote
Phil Hughes, Jaime Garcia, Chris Young, Tyson Ross, and Chris Carpenter. Chris Archer of the Pittsburgh Pirates was just diagnosed in 2020 and underwent surgery in June.
  Add in Matt Harvey. 

But, this sounds optimistic, almost:
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A study in 2017 assessed 14 MLB pitchers undergoing TOS surgery. 77% returned to MLB after an average ~ 11 months following surgery. Pre and postoperative career data showed no significant differences in traditional pitching metrics, including ERA, WHIP, and strikeout-to-walk ratios.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #51: October 19, 2021, 09:18:47 AM »
Oh, there was an NIH study out in March.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33472488/

27 surgeries through 2017, 20 for nerves and 7 for veins. 
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  Of the 27 pitchers, 20 (74.1%) were able to return to MLB play at a mean of 297 days (range, 105-638 days) after surgery. Pitching metrics demonstrated that pitcher ERA remained inferior postoperatively compared to baseline preoperative performance (3.66 vs 4.50, p = 0.03). Fastball velocity (p = 0.94) and strike percentage (p = 0.50) were equivalent to pre-injury performance
 

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #52: October 19, 2021, 09:54:04 AM »
Oh, there was an NIH study out in March.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33472488/

27 surgeries through 2017, 20 for nerves and 7 for veins.   
Still a small universe.  Seems like a crap shoot at this point.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #53: October 19, 2021, 11:24:27 AM »
the era and the strike percentage look like "hmmm" numbers, if I understand p correctly ( reject the null hypothesis that the observed change is merely random, lower p the more likely that the null can be rejected), but I'll defer to stats folks.  Makes some sense if you think mechanically he can come back and throw but the command is off and can get pounded.  Of course, if Stras can pitch backwards, he can be very effective with curves.

Online welch

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #54: October 19, 2021, 02:05:51 PM »
the era and the strike percentage look like "hmmm" numbers, if I understand p correctly ( reject the null hypothesis that the observed change is merely random, lower p the more likely that the null can be rejected), but I'll defer to stats folks.  Makes some sense if you think mechanically he can come back and throw but the command is off and can get pounded.  Of course, if Stras can pitch backwards, he can be very effective with curves.

I also thought, well, maybe they can throw strikes down the middle, more or less, but can't throw to the unhittable spots. My conclusion: Strasburg is not hopeless. On the hopeful side, he was pitching well early this season. Harvey had lost it for several years before TOS.

Offline imref

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #55: October 19, 2021, 02:32:21 PM »
the good thing about Strasburg's injury/surgery, if there is a good thing, is that we should know fairly early into 2022 if he's on track to return and in what kind of shape. IIRC, he was supposed to start throwing in November. So if say by January :pray: he's throwing without issue, then we might take a different route in terms of trying to compete next year.

Offline varoadking

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #56: October 19, 2021, 03:41:53 PM »
Still a small universe.  Seems like a crap shoot at this point.

So you're sayin' you don't believe in Santa Clause?


Online nfotiu

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #57: October 19, 2021, 03:52:50 PM »
I also thought, well, maybe they can throw strikes down the middle, more or less, but can't throw to the unhittable spots. My conclusion: Strasburg is not hopeless. On the hopeful side, he was pitching well early this season. Harvey had lost it for several years before TOS.
You guys are really analyzing these numbers based on a tiny sample size!    It seems the Drs think that TOS isn't really a syndrome, but a series of symptoms caused by a genetic abnormality.  It's not like surgery to fix something torn like Tommy John or ACL reconstruction.   The surgery doesn't fix TOS, it removes bones with the hope of the nerves being able move around unimpeded.   The nerves will have to heal, and then see if he can pitch without irritating them again.

My take from trying to be a Google Dr is that it has been a last gasp kind of attempt to help guys who deal with these kind of nerve issues.   It seems a surgery that is growing in acceptance and Drs might be figuring out how to use it on pitchers effectively.  A lot of the pitchers seem to be end of career guys struggling for a while, and giving a hail Mary surgery a shot to see if it can help them.