Author Topic: Strasburg Contract  (Read 1033 times)

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Offline Slateman

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #25: September 01, 2021, 07:04:56 PM »
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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #26: September 03, 2021, 07:44:46 AM »
Any chance we’ve seen the last of him? Neck injuries are career ending injuries

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #27: September 03, 2021, 08:01:49 AM »

Yea, I'd love to actually see less 30+ homer seasons for players, and more lower scoring games. 12-6 just isn't fun baseball to watch.

But a 2-0 game with two solo homers and 20 combined strikeouts is interesting? Baseball is more interesting when there are players on the bases.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #28: September 03, 2021, 08:13:37 AM »
But a 2-0 game with two solo homers and 20 combined strikeouts is interesting? Baseball is more interesting when there are players on the bases.
If it's 2 aces going at it for 8-9 innings, then yeah, those are some of my favorite games.   If it's a bunch of disposable 98mph bul-penners circling through, then that game kind is probably terrible.   

I think the original comment though was about deadening the ball to get more balls in play, less home runs, and less Ks.

Offline hotshot

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #29: September 03, 2021, 08:29:42 AM »

I think we are way past the point of going backwards, and we all have to accept that pitchers are going to fail, and their careers are going to be shorter.
Should this, plus the fact starters only appear at most in 20% of a team's games, lead to some rethinking about their value in relation to everyday position players? Should their individual historical "durability" be a bigger factor in salary negotiations?

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #30: September 03, 2021, 09:05:42 AM »
Should this, plus the fact starters only appear at most in 20% of a team's games, lead to some rethinking about their value in relation to everyday position players? Should their individual historical "durability" be a bigger factor in salary negotiations?
If you can find a guy who you can count on to make most of his starts and pitch 7+ innings a game, he's worth his weight in gold.   But, yeah, those guys are pretty much extinct.

If you use 194 innings as the bar for a valuable top of the order starter, that is an average of 6IP every 5 games, there are only 4 guys on pace to do that this year, none of them did it in 2020, only 2 of those did that in 2019.

Looking back at stats, from 2000-2014, it was pretty much steady that there would be 50-60 pitchers who'd hit that mark.

2000-2014 - ~50-60 pitchers annually
2015 - 32 pitchers
2016 - 26 pitchers
2017 - 16 pitchers
2018 - 16 pitchers
2019 - 20 pitchers
2020* - 12 pitchers (pro rated to 72 innings)
2021 - 4 pitchers (on pace)





Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #31: September 03, 2021, 09:27:12 AM »
If you can find a guy who you can count on to make most of his starts and pitch 7+ innings a game, he's worth his weight in gold.   But, yeah, those guys are pretty much extinct.

If you use 194 innings as the bar for a valuable top of the order starter, that is an average of 6IP every 5 games, there are only 4 guys on pace to do that this year, none of them did it in 2020, only 2 of those did that in 2019.

Looking back at stats, from 2000-2014, it was pretty much steady that there would be 50-60 pitchers who'd hit that mark.

2000-2014 - ~50-60 pitchers annually
2015 - 32 pitchers
2016 - 26 pitchers
2017 - 16 pitchers
2018 - 16 pitchers
2019 - 20 pitchers
2020* - 12 pitchers (pro rated to 72 innings)
2021 - 4 pitchers (on pace)
That should bump up a bit next year.  Teams are intentionally pulling starters because they pitched fewer innings last year due to the short season. Overall however it won’t return to old time trends.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #32: September 03, 2021, 09:30:41 AM »
Personally I like variety. There are hardly any of the low scoring games where the two starters both go like at least 8 innings.  The endless parade of lookalike relief who all throw upper 90s with little control is not my type of game.  If the games were all low scoring like in the late 60s that would be boring too. I think deadening the ball a bit needs to happen. Will help the pitchers but also have hitters go for more contact.  Maybe even hit the other way to beat a shift. Would bring back stolen bases also. And even BUNTING!   

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #33: September 03, 2021, 11:34:23 AM »
That should bump up a bit next year.  Teams are intentionally pulling starters because they pitched fewer innings last year due to the short season. Overall however it won’t return to old time trends.
Yeah, for sure 2020-21 will be anomalies, but the trend is definitely moving that way.   There will be less than 50 pitchers this year with enough innings to be a qualified starter for ERA leaders, and were only 58 in 2019.   Only half the teams will have starters averaging 5IP every 5 days.   I don't know that I will keep interested in baseball if the NL is DHs and bullpenning takes over in 5 years.


Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #34: September 03, 2021, 11:45:56 AM »
Yeah, for sure 2020-21 will be anomalies, but the trend is definitely moving that way.   There will be less than 50 pitchers this year with enough innings to be a qualified starter for ERA leaders, and were only 58 in 2019.   Only half the teams will have starters averaging 5IP every 5 days.   I don't know that I will keep interested in baseball if the NL is DHs and bullpenning takes over in 5 years.
The DH might actually extend pitcher innings.  In theory anyway.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #35: September 03, 2021, 12:06:04 PM »
The DH might actually extend pitcher innings.  In theory anyway.
It makes it easier to bullpen though since you don’t have to start using your bench in the second or third inning. 

Offline welch

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #36: September 03, 2021, 01:02:52 PM »
The DH was imagined to let a starter go longer, but the AL wanted more hitting. 

Offline YadiSTAR aka Smithian

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #37: September 03, 2021, 01:55:37 PM »
I feel like this has devolved into a rule changes. In that spirit, the DH sucks since it removes strategy. I like double switches and in-game lineup management.

On Strasburg, I have no idea what to predict. I am glad he got another reconstructive surgery early instead of waiting. With the almost guaranteed strike delay, that can help. No need to rush.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #38: September 03, 2021, 02:50:50 PM »
But a 2-0 game with two solo homers and 20 combined strikeouts is interesting? Baseball is more interesting when there are players on the bases.


Agree to disagree? I like it when a homer is harder to hit and the margins are tighter.

Offline Mathguy

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #39: September 03, 2021, 02:50:54 PM »
I hear you in terms of without the DH, having a scenario for game decisions, such as the double switch of a pinch hitter and new pitcher.  But the DH adds another key decision, such as having to decide which way to pitch to a longer heart of the lineup. 

I feel like this has devolved into a rule changes. In that spirit, the DH sucks since it removes strategy. I like double switches and in-game lineup management.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #40: September 03, 2021, 03:41:10 PM »

Agree to disagree? I like it when a homer is harder to hit and the margins are tighter.

I don’t like homers. They should be harder to hit. They are boring. So are strikeouts. The problem with the game today is that that’s all there is. Give me a 12-6 game with lots of singles and doubles any day of the week.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #41: September 03, 2021, 08:44:21 PM »
I don’t like homers. They should be harder to hit. They are boring. So are strikeouts. The problem with the game today is that that’s all there is. Give me a 12-6 game with lots of singles and doubles any day of the week.
I agree homers are often boring.  A build up with lots of battles to advance runners is a lot more dramatic.  Watching guys go all or nothing and striking out a lot is boring too.   Watching a starter strike out 15-20 on a good hitting team is a lot of fun to watch though.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #42: September 03, 2021, 08:47:03 PM »
Anyone have a suggestion for where to split this topic? Reply #?

Offline Mathguy

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #43: September 03, 2021, 10:37:02 PM »
#36 as a start for DH thoughts

Anyone have a suggestion for where to split this topic? Reply #?

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #44: September 04, 2021, 08:47:16 AM »
I'll bite: I am not a huge fan of pitchers duels or extremely close ballgames.

First, if it's a game I have a rooting interest in, they are incredibly stressful to watch. Knowing that the game could be decided by any one pitch, I must hang on to every single moment of every single AB. If I go to the restroom, go to get a hot dog, or my family wants something from me, I could miss the game-defining moment.

Second, even if I don't have a rooting interest (but especially if I do), the outcomes of close games always seem arbitrary or even unfair. These games are often won on pure luck: by one ground ball just missing the shortstop's glove, by one hitter pounding a single hung slider, even by one borderline ball/strike call going a particular way. The losers get to seethe and complain about the one thing that did them in, but the victors often also feel like "oh wow, we got lucky". Compare a 12-8 ballgame where the difference was made by a lot of different things and no one factor dominates.

So yeah give me a slugfest anytime over a tight pitcher's duel. Give me something like the 2007 tiebreaker game between the Rockies and the Padres, or the Field of Dreams game this year.

Offline tomwvr

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #45: September 05, 2021, 05:14:02 PM »
Any chance we’ve seen the last of him? Neck injuries are career ending injuries

I think we could see him as a closer.

Offline imref

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #46: September 20, 2021, 04:00:52 PM »
Per Davey, Strasburg continuing a strength program and on track to begin throwing in November.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #47: September 20, 2021, 06:58:04 PM »
I think we could see him as a closer.
Strasburg is the pitcher least suited to being a closer. Davey had to all but beg to use him relief in the postseason.

Offline imref

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #48: September 20, 2021, 07:25:35 PM »
Strasburg is the least person suited to being a closer. Davey had to all but beg to use him relief in the postseason.
if he starts his warmup routined in the 3rd inning he could close.

Online zimm_da_kid

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Re: Strasburg Contract
« Reply #49: October 19, 2021, 01:35:22 AM »
Stars has never been below 25th in fip.  dudes an ace when healthy.  He hasn’t been right.  Hopefully the time off will do him good.  Literally every time he’s made more than 5 starts in a year he ends up as a #2 at worst.  He doesn’t even need to be an ace anymore for us.  If he can be a #3 then that is more than ok given what he’s gone through.  Man is an icon and gets too much hate and/or lack of hope.