Author Topic: Will Miguel Cabrera be the last player to get 3000 hits?  (Read 168 times)

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Offline bluestreak

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Miguel Cabrera is at 2954 hits. So he will hit the mark next year most likely. But after him, there will be a long drought. Given the reliance on the 3 true outcomes and everyone going for home runs, is it possible that there is no active player who will hit 3000 hits in there career? Is it possible that Cabrera will be the last player to reach that mark?

I thought this was ridiculous when I read it posted on a board I follow, but then I looked at the list and I don’t think it’s crazy If everything goes perfectly, I think the players with the next best chances are Trout (Age 29, 1419 hits), Machado (28, 1385), and Altuve (31, 1731), and Freeman (31 ,1659) . And I don’t think it’s likely that any of them reach the milestone. Starlin Castro (31, 1722) is at a similar place to Altuve, but obviously has issues that will limit his playing time. I would have thought Trout was a lock, but injuries might stop him.

In case you’re wondering Soto (22, 438)  has a chance and may be the most likely playing right now, but it’s way early.

What say you all?

Offline HalfSmokes

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I think you also have to have a player with a large enough contract on a bad enough team to ensure playing time into the player’s late 30s to get enough at bats to cross the finish line. Does a 38 year old Pujols coming off a miserable 2017 get the extra years that he needed as a free agent? Does he get the playing time on a team fighting in a pennant race? I think teams getting smarter with long term deals may be the biggest threat to having another member of the club

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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I think it can be done. I'll go so far as to say any guy who is good enough to have 1200 hits by 28 could do it if he can play to 38 or older.  Somebody who could move down the defensive spectrum, has a contact heavy obp, and enough xbh to be able to play a corner or dh. 170+ hits a year with good health gets you there if you are around 1200 going into your prime.

Soto's problem may be he walks a lot.

Offline blue911

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I think it can be done. I'll go so far as to say any guy who is good enough to have 1200 hits by 28 could do it if he can play to 38 or older.  Somebody who could move down the defensive spectrum, has a contact heavy obp, and enough xbh to be able to play a corner or dh. 170+ hits a year with good health gets you there if you are around 1200 going into your prime.

Soto's problem may be he walks a lot.

Manny Machado

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Manny Machado
likely, unless somebody slides into his knee as vengeance for Dustin Pedroia

Offline blue911

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likely, unless somebody slides into his knee as vengeance for Dustin Pedroia

I can’t see Matt Barnes ever getting close to third base

Offline YadiSTAR aka Smithian

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Shocked to say I agree with the premise of this thread.

You'd have to be in the league for a looooong time, be durable, and have a low walk rate. Basically, Miguel Cabrera.

Juan Soto pops to mind with his early start, but he walks too much. I think he'll go down in history as good or better than Miguel Cabrera, but I doubt he gets anywhere near 3,000 hits when he walks so much.

Offline bluestreak

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We all know Cabrera is great, but somehow he’s underrated. He’s right handed and slow and still won 4 batting titles and had 9 seasons of .320 or better. Once he hits 3000, he will be the 7th person to get 3000 hits and 500 homers.

Offline imref

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We all know Cabrera is great, but somehow he’s underrated. He’s right handed and slow and still won 4 batting titles and had 9 seasons of .320 or better. Once he hits 3000, he will be the 7th person to get 3000 hits and 500 homers.

he's been obscured by playing on crappy teams for so many years, kind of like Trout.

Offline Mattionals

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he's been obscured by playing on crappy teams for so many years, kind of like Trout.


The Tigers from 2011-2014 were great teams mired by bad bullpens. Also, he did win a WS his rookie year. Other than that though, you right.

Offline bluestreak

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The Tigers from 2011-2014 were great teams mired by bad bullpens. Also, he did win a WS his rookie year. Other than that though, you right.

Tigers also made 2006 World Series.

When the Nationals won in 2019, it meant that every member of the 2014 Tigers starting rotation (Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez, Porcello, Price) had won a ring, but none of them with Detroit.

Offline Mattionals

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Tigers also made 2006 World Series.

When the Nationals won in 2019, it meant that every member of the 2014 Tigers starting rotation (Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez, Porcello, Price) had won a ring, but none of them with Detroit.


Miggy was still a Marlin and was traded after 2007.

Offline bluestreak

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Miggy was still a Marlin and was traded after 2007.

I was at those playoffs games in 2006 and I would have sworn Cabrera was there. Mandela effect. Lol.

Offline Count Walewski

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Yeah Cabrera suffers from Albert Pujols syndrome where his brilliant youth is obscured by the fact that he hung around the league a long time as a greatly diminished senior citizen.

I could name some contact hitters who could get 3,000 hits if they played forever, but I suppose the problem with those guys is that speed is a big part of their game and that degrades with age.

Offline Mattionals

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Yeah Cabrera suffers from Albert Pujols syndrome where his brilliant youth is obscured by the fact that he hung around the league a long time as a greatly diminished senior citizen.

I could name some contact hitters who could get 3,000 hits if they played forever, but I suppose the problem with those guys is that speed is a big part of their game and that degrades with age.


I guess if you mean greatly diminished senior citizen is more or less "what have you done for me recently". He was pretty excellent until 2017, which is when he got hurt. The injury sapped him of his ability and he hasn't really stayed healthy in any year after that.

Offline YadiSTAR aka Smithian

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Ozzie Albies is only young guy I can see doing it. Bryan Reynolds popped to mind but he got way too late of a start.

If Freddie Freeman wants to spend the end of the 2020's hacking away as DH for a non-contender, he could get there.

Offline bluestreak

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Miggy on 9 straight hits. Three shy of MLB record.