Author Topic: Looking ahead to 2022  (Read 13471 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 5542
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #375: September 24, 2021, 08:21:35 PM »
Rutledge and Lara are definitely not spare parts.  Rutledge was a top 100 prospect coming into this year and Lara is 28 and finished this season at low A.  Barrera could be a chip too.  Good defensively and had a 110 ops+ this year in 107 PAs + team control.

Call them lottery tickets, then. Pick your derisive metaphor. 

An 18-year-old in low-A and a dude who WAS (emphasis on past tense) a top-100 prospect (and who just put up an injury-riddled season with an ERA of nearly eight) and has never been above high-A are not going to get you there.  Those dudes are lottery tickets.  They get traded for relievers.  They do not get you 5-WAR position players with multiple cheap years of team control.

I mean, this is pretty simple.  There's a trade out there that shows you the value of 5-WAR position players with multiple cheap years.  It's Adam Eaton.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 39381
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #376: September 24, 2021, 09:57:50 PM »
Maddux was the guy that screwed up Giolito.
what I read is that neither Maddux not Cooper helped him. He just went back to his high school coach and reverted to what made him a top prospect.

More generally, I don't think Hickey or Maddux is why we didn't develop a pitcher after Roark.  It was the guy who was the pitching coach the 2d half of 2019, who was the head of development in the system and who Hickey replaced, that is more responsible for the long term development issue.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 63095
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #377: September 24, 2021, 11:34:21 PM »
Maddux didnt do anything that caused him to come up and throw 90

Online zimm_da_kid

  • Posts: 7931
  • The one true ace
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #378: September 24, 2021, 11:34:51 PM »
Call them lottery tickets, then. Pick your derisive metaphor. 

An 18-year-old in low-A and a dude who WAS (emphasis on past tense) a top-100 prospect (and who just put up an injury-riddled season with an ERA of nearly eight) and has never been above high-A are not going to get you there.  Those dudes are lottery tickets.  They get traded for relievers.  They do not get you 5-WAR position players with multiple cheap years of team control.

I mean, this is pretty simple.  There's a trade out there that shows you the value of 5-WAR position players with multiple cheap years.  It's Adam Eaton.

For the type of player Eaton was I doubt anyone could reasonably argue that we didn’t seriously overpay. 

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 63095
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #379: September 24, 2021, 11:45:09 PM »
For the type of player Eaton was I doubt anyone could reasonably argue that we didn’t seriously overpay. 
Thats because you see jaded by the injuries and dont remember that Eaton was, at the time of the trade, a 4-6 WAR player

Online zimm_da_kid

  • Posts: 7931
  • The one true ace
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #380: September 24, 2021, 11:53:54 PM »
Thats because you see jaded by the injuries and dont remember that Eaton was, at the time of the trade, a 4-6 WAR player

The three years before we got him his bWAR was 5.2, 4.1, and 6.6. That together is 15.7 war.  For his career he has 18.4 war.  He was a low power corner outfielder without stellar defense and without slut won base skills.  Now that his average isn’t great he is worthless.  It’s a poor aging skill set.  The deal worked out, but at the time it looked like an overpay. 

To be fair though, this was before teams started seriously overvaluing prospects.  Now way a team trades a giolito for an Eaton Olin today’s game, let alone giolito+

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 63095
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #381: September 25, 2021, 08:35:28 AM »
The three years before we got him his bWAR was 5.2, 4.1, and 6.6. That together is 15.7 war.  For his career he has 18.4 war.  He was a low power corner outfielder without stellar defense and without slut won base skills.  Now that his average isn’t great he is worthless.  It’s a poor aging skill set.  The deal worked out, but at the time it looked like an overpay. 

To be fair though, this was before teams started seriously overvaluing prospects.  Now way a team trades a giolito for an Eaton Olin today’s game, let alone giolito+
Okay, so first off Eaton had great defense before he got hurt.

Second, Eaton's skill set and aging was irrelevant as we got him in his prime. He was 28. And he posted 120+ wRC+ efforts in his first two, injury-riddles season. The reason he didnt continue to post 4-6 WAR seasons was because of the injury he sustained after the trade.

This tradeline completely blows your premise of teams overvaluing prospects out of the water. The White Sox traded a top 50 prospect for Craig Kimbrel. The Dodgers gave up a top 50 prospect for a year and change of Trea Turner. The Phillies gave up their version of Giolito for Kyle Gibson. The Mets and Yankees both gave up top10 prospects in their systems for two month rentals.

Rutledge (aka, Alex Meyer 2.0) and a backup catcher aint going to get you premium level talent, in their primes, on incredibly team friendly contracts.

You want them, the deal starts with one of Soto, Cavalli, Ruiz, or Gray.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 5542
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #382: September 25, 2021, 09:06:13 AM »
For the type of player Eaton was I doubt anyone could reasonably argue that we didn’t seriously overpay.

I thought it was an overpay then and still do, but I find housing prices in Arlington to be absurd and yet people pay them.

The market is the market.  If you don't like the Eaton example, the Blue Jays just traded 2 top-100 prospects in AA for 1 year and change of Jose Berrios (on a contract that will cost much more than Polanco), who is a pretty consistent 3-ish WAR pitcher. I think that's an overpay too, but the point is that they paid it.  I can't square that for getting a better player on a better contract for longer for a significantly worse package.

The White Sox traded a top 50 prospect for Craig Kimbrel.

You want them, the deal starts with one of Soto, Cavalli, Ruiz, or Gray.

Top-50 prospect who was already in the majors and hitting .317 in 300+ at bats PLUS a setup guy with 4 years of team control.  Insane, but the market is the market.  And your conclusion is of course right.

Online zimm_da_kid

  • Posts: 7931
  • The one true ace
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #383: September 25, 2021, 11:26:53 AM »
I thought it was an overpay then and still do, but I find housing prices in Arlington to be absurd and yet people pay them.

The market is the market.  If you don't like the Eaton example, the Blue Jays just traded 2 top-100 prospects in AA for 1 year and change of Jose Berrios (on a contract that will cost much more than Polanco), who is a pretty consistent 3-ish WAR pitcher. I think that's an overpay too, but the point is that they paid it.  I can't square that for getting a better player on a better contract for longer for a significantly worse package.

Top-50 prospect who was already in the majors and hitting .317 in 300+ at bats PLUS a setup guy with 4 years of team control.  Insane, but the market is the market.  And your conclusion is of course right.

To be fair there, there is some industry chatter that Austin Martin isn’t all he’s cracked up to be and might be an empty average guy without a real defensive home

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 5542
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #384: September 25, 2021, 12:02:37 PM »
To be fair there, there is some industry chatter that Austin Martin isn’t all he’s cracked up to be and might be an empty average guy without a real defensive home

LOL.  Okay.  You're dumping on a dude (Martin) who just OPSed .796 in AA at age 22 while simultaneously pimping a dude (Rutledge) who just ran up a 7.68 ERA at a lower level at the same age while dealing with a red-flag shoulder injury.

I like that you think out of the box - really, I do, it's interesting - but this one's a bridge too far.

Online zimm_da_kid

  • Posts: 7931
  • The one true ace
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #385: September 25, 2021, 12:07:32 PM »
LOL.  Okay.  You're dumping on a dude (Martin) who just OPSed .796 in AA at age 22 while simultaneously pimping a dude (Rutledge) who just ran up a 7.68 ERA at a lower level at the same age while dealing with a red-flag shoulder injury.

I like that you think out of the box - really, I do, it's interesting - but this one's a bridge too far.

I’m not saying rutledge is better than Martin.  I’m just saying Martin in all likelihood shouldn’t be ranked as highly as he is.  Still definitely should be in the top 100, just in the 50-75 range

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 5542
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #386: September 25, 2021, 12:20:46 PM »
I’m not saying rutledge is better than Martin.  I’m just saying Martin in all likelihood shouldn’t be ranked as highly as he is.  Still definitely should be in the top 100, just in the 50-75 range

That's fine - and I have a lot of quibbles with the rankings myself, especially as it comes to guys whose rankings are based solely on their draft position, not results (cough, JJ Bleday, who from seeing him several times in person this year can neither hit nor play CF) - but even with an adjustment like that, the point stands.

Offline Expos

  • Posts: 1094
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #387: September 26, 2021, 12:50:32 AM »

Do we all of a sudden have the best catching duo in the league with Ruiz and Adams?

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 63095
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #388: September 26, 2021, 07:51:05 AM »
Uh .... the Dodgers still have Will Smith

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 39381
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #389: September 26, 2021, 05:59:32 PM »
Uh .... the Dodgers still have Will Smith
IS Barnes a free agent? 

Online zimm_da_kid

  • Posts: 7931
  • The one true ace
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #390: September 27, 2021, 11:45:02 AM »
Wouldn’t mind signing Brandon belt to a deal this offseason.  Have a 3 way platoon at 1st and DH where bell and belt alternate who plays 1st and dh with zimm batting against every single lefty starter by giving one of them a day off.  Think it would work, keep them all fresh, and maximize production. 

Then it’s just finding a 2 hole hitter that can play 2nd, 3rd (if moving on from kieboom), or LF (if Yadiel is traded or we decide he’s not the answer)

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 5542
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #391: September 27, 2021, 12:51:51 PM »
Wouldn’t mind signing Brandon belt to a deal this offseason.  Have a 3 way platoon at 1st and DH where bell and belt alternate who plays 1st and dh with zimm batting against every single lefty starter by giving one of them a day off.  Think it would work, keep them all fresh, and maximize production. 

Then it’s just finding a 2 hole hitter that can play 2nd, 3rd (if moving on from kieboom), or LF (if Yadiel is traded or we decide he’s not the answer)

An NL DH next season would reduce to near-zero the chances of Belt not staying in SF.  It'd solve their issue of where to put Posey to both rest him and clear time behind the plate for Bart without occupying 1B.

Online zimm_da_kid

  • Posts: 7931
  • The one true ace
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #392: September 27, 2021, 01:01:26 PM »
An NL DH next season would reduce to near-zero the chances of Belt not staying in SF.  It'd solve their issue of where to put Posey to both rest him and clear time behind the plate for Bart without occupying 1B.

They’re going to have their hands full though. Gausman, desclafani, and Cuervo are all free agents so they need to completely rebuild their rotation.  They just resigned Crawford and still have posey.  To me, it looks like they need to rebuild their rotation and get younger offensively.  I somewhat view them resigning Crawford’s them choosing him over belt.

Online imref

  • Posts: 42507
  • Re-contending in 202...5?
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #393: September 27, 2021, 01:21:18 PM »
Wouldn’t mind signing Brandon belt to a deal this offseason.  Have a 3 way platoon at 1st and DH where bell and belt alternate who plays 1st and dh with zimm batting against every single lefty starter by giving one of them a day off.  Think it would work, keep them all fresh, and maximize production. 

Then it’s just finding a 2 hole hitter that can play 2nd, 3rd (if moving on from kieboom), or LF (if Yadiel is traded or we decide he’s not the answer)

There's no way we go with a three-person platoon at first. If Zimm comes back it will be him and Bell. If he retires, they likely go with a Howie Kendrick-type who can hit LHP and also play a couple of other positions.

Online zimm_da_kid

  • Posts: 7931
  • The one true ace
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #394: September 27, 2021, 01:25:31 PM »
There's no way we go with a three-person platoon at first. If Zimm comes back it will be him and Bell. If he retires, they likely go with a Howie Kendrick-type who can hit LHP and also play a couple of other positions.

Well it would be a three person platoon for 2 full time slots. 

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 5542
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #395: September 27, 2021, 02:12:07 PM »
They’re going to have their hands full though. Gausman, desclafani, and Cuervo are all free agents so they need to completely rebuild their rotation.  They just resigned Crawford and still have posey.  To me, it looks like they need to rebuild their rotation and get younger offensively.  I somewhat view them resigning Crawford’s them choosing him over belt.

That's not what they're saying, and Belt's said he wants to stay.  I also don't see why, if forced to leave, he'd go here when there are much better teams that would likely offer him a contract (especially if the NL adopts the DH, as he's a good enough hitter to justify that spot). 

Well it would be a three person platoon for 2 full time slots.

You'd still be using 3 roster spots on guys who can't really play anywhere but first or DH.  In the era of 52-man bullpens, that's not likely and not something teams would do without massive upside, as shown by current AL practice. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 39381
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #396: September 27, 2021, 02:28:00 PM »
You'd still be using 3 roster spots on guys who can't really play anywhere but first or DH.  In the era of 52-man bullpens, that's not likely and not something teams would do without massive upside, as shown by current AL practice. 
I kind of wonder whether the Bell corner outfield experiment continues a bit.  I'm not even saying once or twice a week starts.  It's just having that 2nd position allows for more creative substitutions (double switches, etc... ) in  a pinch.  It's something positive.  I could especially see it if we go with just 4 outfielders

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 63095
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #397: September 27, 2021, 02:35:25 PM »
No one over 32 unless its a one year deal with a plan to move them at the deadline

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 5542
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #398: September 27, 2021, 02:59:26 PM »
I kind of wonder whether the Bell corner outfield experiment continues a bit.  I'm not even saying once or twice a week starts.  It's just having that 2nd position allows for more creative substitutions (double switches, etc... ) in  a pinch.  It's something positive.  I could especially see it if we go with just 4 outfielders

I suspect it does, with pretty much that exact pattern.  He can do it for a few innings here and there, particularly when you're behind and trying to get back in a game.  It's the opposite of a defensive replacement.

Offline Expos

  • Posts: 1094
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #399: September 27, 2021, 10:59:39 PM »
Bring back Schwarber and Max.

Find another starter.

Fix the bull pen. Again.