Looking ahead to 2022

[imref]

Could we be competitive?

1. Robles
2. SS/2B?
3. Soto
4. Bell
5. Ruiz
6. Kieboom
7. Hernandez
8. Garcia

Rotation: Gray, Corbin, Fedde, Espino, ? (Cavalli at some point)

Seems if we can land a couple of starters and a decent MI, and an upgrade over Vic in CF, we might not be that awful next year. There really aren't any decent CF free agents though (well, other than MAT).

SP potential targets: Max, Gausman, Stroman, Bundy, Thor

MI: Story, Semien, Seager, Correa, Simmons
 

[Mattionals]

I was just thinking about this. If you assume the Nats roll with Robles, then the spots that require tweaking are all looking pretty decent for FA this year. Antuna is the only real MI prospect worth looking at, as I assume House is going to be a corner IF, so upgrading there seems logical. Someone like Story or Seager, both of which have probably cost themselves a bigger deal thanks to injuries or a meh season (Story has looked much better lately, but maybe not enough to bring him back to what he was likely to get in FA) could be nice fits.

Pitching wise, well, Cavalli looks great but isn't here yet. Gray seems awesome and is here. Corbin looks like a dumpster fire. Fedde has shown flashes of being decent, but then fell off a cliff and I assume the "sticky stuff" crackdown has something to do with it. Espino's luster has worn off methinks. The bullpen has too many holes as well.

So could we be competitive next year? Probably not, but maybe we are looking at 2011? .500 team on the rise?

[Smithian]

I think it is too early to guess if next season is a rebuild or not. Could they go for it? Yes. Every single offseason in baseball there are free agents and teams trying to dump salary. But it would be hard.

I think they acquire a veteran middle infielder and maybe a #4 OF who can take over in center if Robles is a disaster again. But overall quiet on position players. Then I expect they try to acquire at minimum two middle or back of the rotation starters. They will at least try to pick up a couple passable end of the bullpen arms.

Not dissimilar from this past offseason.

Does that make the Nationals a contender? No. But if everything goes to hell, it isn't hard to move pieces at the deadline. But let's say Strasburg comes back, Corbin is workable, and Soto mashes while some young guys produce. Those moves help the team win games and be at a spot at the deadline where it makes sense to go and add the big pieces you need to contend.

But it is too early to know. And the brewing labor war make me wonder what next season will even look like. I maintain the Nationals should punt 2022 and put everything toward 2023, but I doubt the front office is willing to be as pessimistic as me on 2022.

[nfotiu]

The one thing that doesn't look close right now is the bullpen.  Can they completely rebuild it in the offseason to at least give them a chance to be competitive?

[Count Walewski]

I would prefer to see another year of tanking to get a top 5 draft pick and figuring out who is good/not good among recently acquired prospect. Not a great track record on quick rebuilds/retools. FAs should be limited to 1-2 year deals on guys who can get flipped at the deadline if they have a good half season.

[Mattionals]

I would prefer to see another year of tanking to get a top 5 draft pick and figuring out who is good/not good among recently acquired prospect. Not a great track record on quick rebuilds/retools. FAs should be limited to 1-2 year deals on guys who can get flipped at the deadline if they have a good half season.

While getting high draft picks is great, those picks are usually far away from being MLB ready. Sometimes you get a pitcher who spends little time in the minors and gets called up, but position players are far more likely to play a few years in the system before getting a call up.


This is great for keeping things moving though, and extending the window longer. Sucking next year could net a prospect that opens the window another 2-3 years down the line. That being said, lots of other teams are tanking right now, and there is still SOME talent on the field making it tougher to garner a top 5 pick.

[hotshot]

Like Story, Semien and Seager. Think Correa will be a NY Yankee.

I don't think Max is leaving LA. I wouldn't back up the money truck for any of the rest of the SPs you listed. Who's gonna offer Bundy (he's as bad as Corbin).

Gray has looked very good. I think "awesome" is a maybe bit too strong.

[Smithian]

I would prefer to see another year of tanking to get a top 5 draft pick and figuring out who is good/not good among recently acquired prospect. Not a great track record on quick rebuilds/retools. FAs should be limited to 1-2 year deals on guys who can get flipped at the deadline if they have a good half season.

Hell no on tanking. This isn't basketball or football. There is no 6'10 point guard or stud QB who will save us. Losing develops bad habits and grinds down a fan base.

The one team who benefitted from tanking also benefitted from a huge cheating scandal.

[Mattionals]

Gray has looked very good. I think "awesome" is a maybe bit too strong.

I think you should set your expectations a little lower. Most pitchers don't come up with the amount of poise and results he has shown this far.

[DPMOmaha]

I expect them to be aggressive and attempt to put together a competitive roster. Their success will hinge on whether or not Strasburg or Corbin get their poop in a group or not. If they don't the'll be in the mix. If they don't they very likely won't.

[madj55]

Trevor Story fits the mold of what Rizzo looks for in a player. Would also replace a lot of the athleticism we lost with Trea. Really hope he likes deferred money.

[zimm_da_kid]

Trevor Story fits the mold of what Rizzo looks for in a player. Would also replace a lot of the athleticism we lost with Trea. Really hope he likes deferred money.

Story might be willing to take a high value 1 year deal to reestablish value.  If we’re going multi-year, I’d prefer Chris Taylor.  He can play short, second, third, and left.  He could be our 2B til antuna comes up, then start against all lefties in a platoon with Yadiel and give antuna, kieboom, and Garcia 1 game off a week

[Elvir Ovcina]

Keep in mind they're paying $15 million in deferred money to Scherzer next year, plus $35 million to Strasburg and $23 million to Corbin.  That's $73 million in starting pitchers that likely won't contribute much, if anything positive. 

It's pretty hard to get around that, and the team as presently constituted for next year is really bad - a couple wins recently don't change that.  Being competitive relies essentially on (1) Soto and (2) massive upside from a bunch of rookies who have had at most a decent month or two in the majors. 

That rotation listed up thread is awful, even with a top-end FA addition, unless Strasburg and/or Corbin come back and pitch up to or near their contracts. 

[zimm_da_kid]

Keep in mind they're paying $15 million in deferred money to Scherzer next year, plus $35 million to Strasburg and $23 million to Corbin.  That's $73 million in starting pitchers that likely won't contribute much, if anything positive. 

It's pretty hard to get around that, and the team as presently constituted for next year is really bad - a couple wins recently don't change that.  Being competitive relies essentially on (1) Soto and (2) massive upside from a bunch of rookies who have had at most a decent month or two in the majors. 

That rotation listed up thread is awful, even with a top-end FA addition, unless Strasburg and/or Corbin come back and pitch up to or near their contracts. 

We’re at like $120-$125 million next year factoring in arbitration.  Still plenty of room for upgrades.

Bring back T Clipp.  He’s still good and will only cost $1 million or so

[Elvir Ovcina]

We’re at like $120-$125 million next year factoring in arbitration.  Still plenty of room for upgrades.

Bring back T Clipp.  He’s still good and will only cost $1 million or so

You could easily spend $70 million to upgrade that roster and still end up with a bad team and no useful depth, and I can't see that happening in what is likely to be a frozen free agent winter followed by labor problems.  The owners already proposed to lower the luxury tax threshold to $180m.

[Count Walewski]

The Nationals are bottom 10 team right now - even if you include wins from this spring before the selloff - and they are not a few big FA signings away from being a contender. Adding Marcus Semien or Trevor Story to this awful team is a recipe for mediocrity, and mediocrity is the one thing that baseball does not reward. Baseball rewards excellence with playoff appearances and championships, baseball rewards awfulness with high draft picks, but mediocrity bears no fruit. It is far better to be the worst team in the NL East than it is to finish a half dozen games behind the division winner with 83 wins. Further, the Nationals right now have a lot of dead money on the payroll and lack financial flexibility.

The Nationals need to build a core of low-cost players that they control long-term, and there's only one way to do that: tank for multiple years and aggressively trade away everyone signed short-term who has any value. Where do you suppose Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, and Stephen Strasburg came from?

[Senatorswin]

I guess I haven't been paying attention. Is Strasburg out next year also. I don't see him projected in the rotation.

[imref]

I guess I haven't been paying attention. Is Strasburg out next year also. I don't see him projected in the rotation.

Officially, he’s expected to be ready for ST.

[UMDNats]

I guess I haven't been paying attention. Is Strasburg out next year also. I don't see him projected in the rotation.

If Strasburg makes 10 more starts in a Nationals uniform I will be shocked.

[varoadking]

If Strasburg makes 10 more starts in a Nationals uniform I will be shocked.

I'll take the under .

[Mattionals]

The Nationals need to build a core of low-cost players that they control long-term, and there's only one way to do that: tank for multiple years and aggressively trade away everyone signed short-term who has any value. Where do you suppose Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, and Stephen Strasburg came from?

Is that not the current plan on the field? I think they are trying to let some of these guys develop at the MLB level, certainly the plan is to try and make Garcia, Kieboom, Robles, Gray, Thompson, Klobosits, Riley, maybe even Barrera as pieces around Soto. Ruiz and Cavalli are close. You seem to think that all minor leaguers develop like the three you listed. It's been said MANY times before, lots of players don't just come up and produce like what we've been spoiled with thanks to Stras, Harper, Rendon, and Soto. If you think tanking for multiple years is going to flip the script, then you are going to be really upset if the Nats trade Soto because NOTHING is going to compare to that guy. There is NO package worth taking for him.

[imref]

Is that not the current plan on the field? I think they are trying to let some of these guys develop at the MLB level, certainly the plan is to try and make Garcia, Kieboom, Robles, Gray, Thompson, Klobosits, Riley, maybe even Barrera as pieces around Soto. Ruiz and Cavalli are close. You seem to think that all minor leaguers develop like the three you listed. It's been said MANY times before, lots of players don't just come up and produce like what we've been spoiled with thanks to Stras, Harper, Rendon, and Soto. If you think tanking for multiple years is going to flip the script, then you are going to be really upset if the Nats trade Soto because NOTHING is going to compare to that guy. There is NO package worth taking for him.

The plan was to have the core of Kieboom, Robles, Turner and Soto starting in 2020, with Garcia coming along in 21 or 22. Robles and Kieboom didn't hold up their end of the deal. And Strasburg and Corbin fell apart.

[rbw5t]

I think they are aiming to be competitive again by 2023, and are willing to punt on next year.  But, sometimes you have to sign a player when he is available, even if it's earlier than you really need him.  If they are aiming to be competitive between 2023-2026, they might need to sign one of the big FA SSs this offseason.  I could see them giving Story a big contract, even with the expectation of not being ready to really compete next year.  But I think they probably fill the rotation with warm bodies.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I think they are positioned a lot like going into 2011, even down to perhaps having the 6th pick in the draft.  Soto is an asset that we didn't have back then, but we had middle infield prospects, a young veteran like Zimmerman, and a mix of low cost veterans surrounding them.  The starting depth I think is thinner, but Cavalli and Gray look like maybe healthier JZ and Stras (in the young rotation regular sense; no one had Stras's upside, but neither of those guys are coming off of TJ and innings limits). In that situation, the Nats went out and signed Werth and moved up to .500 before the breakout.  I could see a big 2nd building block being signed under the right conditions as well as some young guys (Ruiz, Kieboom) and average players rounding out the gaps around Soto and the building block.  There's budget flexibility to do this. I'm just not sure of the willingness.

[hohoho]

Depends on fa signings. Not holding my breath.