Author Topic: Looking ahead to 2022  (Read 13472 times)

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Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #250: September 16, 2021, 02:08:47 PM »
I assume if he gets the Offer, he's gonna take it. No one is going to give him the deals he's looking for. He'd have to be willing to take a lot less than 18 million if he declines the QO and seeks another team.
Career OPS+ of 124. I think someone will offer him 2/3 years. Maybe at less AAV.

Online imref

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #251: September 16, 2021, 02:41:55 PM »
I guess a one year, prove it deal is fine, but the best outcome of that is a decent prospect at the deadlike. Also, what do we do with Yadi?

Yadial isn't arbitration eligible until 2024 according to baseball reference. Am I missing something?

Offline GNatsNoMore

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #252: September 16, 2021, 05:46:17 PM »
I agree with those who say we need to add at least 1-2 reliable relievers next year.  Rainey struck out 9 straight batters in his last three appearances for the Red Wings, so maybe he can contribute next year if he keeps it up. 

Online Slateman

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #253: September 16, 2021, 05:56:38 PM »
Career OPS+ of 124. I think someone will offer him 2/3 years. Maybe at less AAV.
I think he takes the QO and bets on himself. But he's been absolutely putrid this year, and everyone thought after last season he had re-found his 2017 form. But he hasnt.

I think his agent will start asking around about deals, find out that all anyone is offering is 3 years, ~45 million. So unless he really, REALLY wants out of NY, the QO is the right move for him.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #254: September 16, 2021, 06:09:22 PM »
I think he takes the QO and bets on himself. But he's been absolutely putrid this year, and everyone thought after last season he had re-found his 2017 form. But he hasnt.

I think his agent will start asking around about deals, find out that all anyone is offering is 3 years, ~45 million. So unless he really, REALLY wants out of NY, the QO is the right move for him.
3 years $45 million is a great deal with uncertainty over the next agreement.  He should take that.  If he flames out in 2022 or gets hurt he will regret not taking it. 

Online Slateman

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #255: September 17, 2021, 07:48:01 AM »
If Kevin Long believes he can fix Conforto (and Conforto's best season was under Long in 2017), then yea, its a no brainer to go 3/45. That gives the Nats a middle of the order bat and makes the outfield defensively good enough to not need Victor Robles in CF.

I just dont think he's gonna take that deal. Not without a player option or something. He's a Boras client. He's gonna go the one year deal route and then cash in after a better year than this year.

Online Slateman

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #256: September 17, 2021, 04:46:20 PM »
Wonder if we make a push for Stroman

https://www.mlb.com/news/josiah-gray-relationship-with-marcus-stroman
Free agent at 30 years old. Makes $19 million this season. Has made 30 starts and W-L not great but 2.87 ERA, well below league average. Perfect for the Nats for the next few years, but I think the Mets will pay to keep him.
He's on my list of guys I'd love to have but I worry about paying him a bunch when we're already stuck with Strasburg and Corbin.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ragazzoreport/status/1438941548952096774?s=20

Basically,  Corbin/Wheeler money

Online imref

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #257: September 18, 2021, 04:05:06 AM »
With tonight’s loss the Nats are officially eliminated from postseason contention

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #258: September 18, 2021, 10:47:42 AM »
The offense has been respectable to good since the trade deadline.  Stats like wOBA and wRC+ have them around 8th to 10th in MLB. They are doing that without absurd BABIP (.303).  Runs are 12th. 

If you take just September, when Thomas has taken over, Ruiz is up, and the lineup has somewhat stabilized, they are 7th in runs (3rd in the NL), 6th in wRC+ (2nd in the NL), 4th in wOBA (2nd in NL), without an absurd BABIP (.303 - 12th in MLB). .272 / .357 / .451.  5th in OPS.  5th in hard hit %, but 2d in GB/FB (need young Frankenstein and "Elevate me"0).  Fortunately, they don't pop up much (dead last in IFFB%).

This does not seem like a bad baseline for an offense.  The defense hasn't been particularly butcher-like either, a shade below median.  Pitching has some ugly stats.  Buying pitching is expensive if you go for established high expectation guys.  OTOH, if you hit on break out candidates, it can become respectable fast.

Online zimm_da_kid

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #259: September 18, 2021, 11:22:56 AM »
Gotta bring zimm back.  He’s cheap and he still gets the job done.  If we have the dh next year we could opt for the resting more guys approach to get Yadiel, Thomas, Robles, and Soto all playing time.  Same could be done for bell and zimm.

All I know is zimm needs to bat against lefties for us next year.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #260: September 18, 2021, 11:34:18 AM »
for fun, I looked at 2021's FA pitching signings.  This is the obvious hole in the MLB roster right now.  I'm assuming no major spending on the position players unless something falls in their lap, like one of the SSs.  So, targeting about $120 million payroll, there's room for about $30-40 million AAV on pitching pickups.

https://www.wnff.net/index.php?board=3.0

The only pitchers to sign for over $15MM in AAV were Bauer and Liam Hendriks.  Stroman and Gausman accepted QOs.  Every other pitching signing was $15MM or less. Focusing on starters, a lot of that was wasted or nearly wasted (Smyly, Minor, etc )but Charlie Morton was very good,  Waino was a special case, Anthony DeScalfini was a stud, Robbie Ray a Cy Young candidate, and Kluber good in small quantities.  IT should not be hard to find 4.5 ERA and innings out of that price range (garrett Richards). Beating that is harder, but is often done with spectacular results (see the SF Giants).

I took a quick look at the MLBTR list of starting pitchers who are potential free agents next year.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/2021-22-mlb-free-agents.html

There's a lot there.  Frankly, I don't know who is realistic to target in the price range I'm talking about. OTOH, there's enough there that I expect a few guys will misgauge the market and could be reasonable 1 or two year signings.  Alex Wood looks like an interesting name who might worth a few years. Basically, anyone off the Giants staff looks interesting.  They executed the strategy I'm hoping Rizzo adopts.

Online imref

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #261: September 18, 2021, 11:34:24 AM »
Gotta bring zimm back.  He’s cheap and he still gets the job done.  If we have the dh next year we could opt for the resting more guys approach to get Yadiel, Thomas, Robles, and Soto all playing time.  Same could be done for bell and zimm.

All I know is zimm needs to bat against lefties for us next year.

Bell hasn't been terrible against lefties - 237 / .358 / .474 with 9 HR in 162 PAs versus .297 / .321 / .604, 7HRs in 106 PAs for Zimmerman.  As much as I'd like to see Zimmerman back for sentimental reasons, I suspect he's done, and it's probably better for the team to have someone with more versatility off the bench - e.g. a Howie Kendrick-type (Jake Noll??), who could play a few different positions.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #262: September 18, 2021, 11:42:29 AM »
the other thing about RZ is there was talk about Adams playing 1st as a second position. If that is the case, he may take RZ's role on the short side of a platoon at 1st. 

Really, I think the decision is up to Zim. He tells them in December "i'm getting ready for 2022," they will bring him back for $1 million.

In terms of the infield, I'd be Ok with going into next year with something like Escobar, Harrison, and Zimmerman signed, along with Kieboom, Bell, and Garcia, and see if a SS drops into their lap.

Online Slateman

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #263: September 18, 2021, 04:46:23 PM »
Next season would be a really good season for the Nats to eat salary and get prospects. Particularly deals ending in 2022.

Online Slateman

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #264: September 18, 2021, 04:46:58 PM »
the other thing about RZ is there was talk about Adams playing 1st as a second position. If that is the case, he may take RZ's role on the short side of a platoon at 1st. 

Really, I think the decision is up to Zim. He tells them in December "i'm getting ready for 2022," they will bring him back for $1 million.

In terms of the infield, I'd be Ok with going into next year with something like Escobar, Harrison, and Zimmerman signed, along with Kieboom, Bell, and Garcia, and see if a SS drops into their lap.
Adams needs to show he can hit LHP before we pencil him in as a platoon bat

Online Slateman

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #265: September 20, 2021, 08:57:50 PM »
I still want to see Fedde become an exclusive reliever
 Dude can hit 97 and the disparity between his first inning/first time through the order, and subaquent innings is too jarring to ignore

Offline welch

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #266: September 20, 2021, 09:10:03 PM »
for fun, I looked at 2021's FA pitching signings.  This is the obvious hole in the MLB roster right now.  I'm assuming no major spending on the position players unless something falls in their lap, like one of the SSs.  So, targeting about $120 million payroll, there's room for about $30-40 million AAV on pitching pickups.

https://www.wnff.net/index.php?board=3.0

The only pitchers to sign for over $15MM in AAV were Bauer and Liam Hendriks.  Stroman and Gausman accepted QOs.  Every other pitching signing was $15MM or less. Focusing on starters, a lot of that was wasted or nearly wasted (Smyly, Minor, etc )but Charlie Morton was very good,  Waino was a special case, Anthony DeScalfini was a stud, Robbie Ray a Cy Young candidate, and Kluber good in small quantities.  IT should not be hard to find 4.5 ERA and innings out of that price range (garrett Richards). Beating that is harder, but is often done with spectacular results (see the SF Giants).

I took a quick look at the MLBTR list of starting pitchers who are potential free agents next year.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/2021-22-mlb-free-agents.html

There's a lot there.  Frankly, I don't know who is realistic to target in the price range I'm talking about. OTOH, there's enough there that I expect a few guys will misgauge the market and could be reasonable 1 or two year signings.  Alex Wood looks like an interesting name who might worth a few years. Basically, anyone off the Giants staff looks interesting.  They executed the strategy I'm hoping Rizzo adopts.

Two starters, maybe like Matz and Syndegaard (he's due for a QO), or that Scherzer guy. Espino and Gray from this year's staff. One respectable reliever, at least.

Offline English Natsie

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #267: September 21, 2021, 05:40:49 AM »
We need to take a Nationals Official Website approach - every day, reading their match report, I marvel at their unbounded optimism, I mean, we could be played off the park, lose 35 - 1, and they would only write about the '1'..... :hysterical:

Offline hotshot

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #268: September 21, 2021, 08:07:44 AM »
The longer the season goes, the more Kieboom's numbers at the plate slide.

Online Smithian

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #269: September 21, 2021, 08:36:26 AM »
the other thing about RZ is there was talk about Adams playing 1st as a second position. If that is the case, he may take RZ's role on the short side of a platoon at 1st. 

Really, I think the decision is up to Zim. He tells them in December "i'm getting ready for 2022," they will bring him back for $1 million.

In terms of the infield, I'd be Ok with going into next year with something like Escobar, Harrison, and Zimmerman signed, along with Kieboom, Bell, and Garcia, and see if a SS drops into their lap.
Zimmerman isn't versatile enough. The National shave been hamstrung this year by lack of positional versatility. Having a backup 1B who is the short side of a platoon and constricted to 1B isn't ideal.

I like Zimmerman a lot. Favorite National ever. I want him to leave on a good note, not running the possibility that next year he hits a wall and it is awful on everyone.

Online Slateman

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #270: September 21, 2021, 09:06:32 AM »
Zimmerman isn't versatile enough. The National shave been hamstrung this year by lack of positional versatility. Having a backup 1B who is the short side of a platoon and constricted to 1B isn't ideal.

I like Zimmerman a lot. Favorite National ever. I want him to leave on a good note, not running the possibility that next year he hits a wall and it is awful on everyone.
Lol, wut

25 teams in baseball would like to have a .900OPS vs LHP off the bench at less than 2 million

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #271: September 21, 2021, 10:55:45 AM »
Yeah, I guess Zimmerman is actually exactly the kind of player a rebuilding team would want at this point.

Online Slateman

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #272: September 21, 2021, 11:04:49 AM »
Yeah, I guess Zimmerman is actually exactly the kind of player a rebuilding team would want at this point.
He's the kind of olayer that most teams would want

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #273: September 21, 2021, 11:07:06 AM »
The longer the season goes, the more Kieboom's numbers at the plate slide.
I get the complaining about his slide, but yesterday he was on 2 out of 4 times with walks. I would not call a .500 OBP and a run scored to be proof of a slide. He left 3 runners on, but our 4 and 5 guys left 15 on.

Online Slateman

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #274: September 21, 2021, 11:17:29 AM »
I get the complaining about his slide, but yesterday he was on 2 out of 4 times with walks. I would not call a .500 OBP and a run scored to be proof of a slide. He left 3 runners on, but our 4 and 5 guys left 15 on.
He isnt hitting. Sorry, but all the OBP in the world is useless when you're hitting .174 and slugging .188. He looked like he was turning a corner in August, but has vanished since then.

Alarm bells in the coaching staff should be going off like crazy at this point.