Author Topic: Looking ahead to 2022  (Read 13492 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 39415
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #200: September 09, 2021, 09:24:50 AM »
Looking at this roster, it's hard to see any guys they will pay more than $1 million next year too besides Stras, Corbin, Harris, Soto and Bell.  Perhaps if they re-sign Escobar, but beyond that, Joe Ross may become a goodwill signing through his rehab ($1.5MM) if he gives the Nats a dirt cheap option for 2023, and there is absolutely nothing else. 
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/washington-nationals/


Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 11499
  • Sunshine Squad 2022
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #201: September 09, 2021, 09:31:39 AM »
There are just too many holes to fill.  How much would it cost to add 2 starters, several bullpen pieces, a 2B or 3B, and a LF and maybe CF?  They are in a rebuild.  Wake up and smell the rebuild coffee.  They will go for some moderately priced veterans and then hope Strasburg is back and Corbin gets better.  Then you can add at the deadline. 
It won't all be free agents. Go look at moves like Josh Bell and Denard Span. Guys you make a run at in arbitration. Our system is still on balance a disaster, but we have some interesting pieces that you can flip for guys on teams wanting to shed payroll. If you're willing to take on salary, there is always going to be talent available.

I expect them to go out and add a #3/4 starter and another middle infielder. Then a couple plug and play bench pieces and middle relievers. Not a big lift. And not unlike your plan, sit back and see what you get from Strasburg, Corbin, and the young guys. Then you can either add at the deadline or sell the remaining pieces.

Then in 2023 and 2024 it is all-in no questions asked.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 25690
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #202: September 09, 2021, 09:35:27 AM »
It won't all be free agents. Go look at moves like Josh Bell and Denard Span. Guys you make a run at in arbitration. Our system is still on balance a disaster, but we have some interesting pieces that you can flip for guys on teams wanting to shed payroll. If you're willing to take on salary, there is always going to be talent available.

I expect them to go out and add a #3/4 starter and another middle infielder. Then a couple plug and play bench pieces and middle relievers. Not a big lift. And not unlike your plan, sit back and see what you get from Strasburg, Corbin, and the young guys. Then you can either add at the deadline or sell the remaining pieces.

Then in 2023 and 2024 it is all-in no questions asked.
You just said the farm system is terrible. But then you want to flip guys for someone like Bell or Span?  I don’t think they can compete for another three years. Unless the Lerners want to spend big for free agents.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 39415
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #203: September 09, 2021, 09:49:17 AM »
Bell (and Soto) are probably the only remaining off season trade pieces for a rebuilding team.  Harris next in-season trade deadline if he's back and doing well.  You have to fish for guys who are denied arbitration like Hunter Renfroe was last year, bring in a few surrounding veterans comparable to Harrison last year, and hope you hit on a few in-house solutions (C, 2 infielders or an infielder and center). 

As it turns out, last year there were a lot of productive, useful, cheap corner outfielders that signed for 1 year guaranteed - Duvall, Schwarber, Pederson, Rosario have all been useful.  Haven't looked, but I have a feeling there may be a 3rd tier SS that could be picked up for short years and money. 

The line up can be patched, cheaply, with some upside.  It's the pitching that is harder to get to acceptable levels, I think.

Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 11499
  • Sunshine Squad 2022
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #204: September 09, 2021, 10:22:35 AM »
You just said the farm system is terrible. But then you want to flip guys for someone like Bell or Span?  I don’t think they can compete for another three years. Unless the Lerners want to spend big for free agents.
Josh Bell cost Eddy Yean and Wil Crowe. Denard Span cost Alex Meyer.

We may not have an Alex Meyer-type prospect unless some team makes a wildly optimistic Jackson Rutledge eval, but we have pieces that can be moved to a team looking to shed salary.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 25690
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #205: September 09, 2021, 10:40:37 AM »
Josh Bell cost Eddy Yean and Wil Crowe. Denard Span cost Alex Meyer.

We may not have an Alex Meyer-type prospect unless some team makes a wildly optimistic Jackson Rutledge eval, but we have pieces that can be moved to a team looking to shed salary.
Which teams are looking to shed salary.  Seems a small universe.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 5542
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #206: September 09, 2021, 11:00:56 AM »
I'm hoping for Cherington 2013 after the Punto trade and finding a bunch of Gomes / Napoli / Victorino / Ueharas out there to tack onto a Gray or Cavalli breakout and a bounceback of at least one of Corbin / Stras.  Easier to target than to realize. 

Realistically, I'd like maybe one building block signing and some patchwork with mostly "if he's good he's really good, if he's bad he's awful" short term gambles that can be treated like Barraclough and Rosenthal if they don't work out.  We laugh at the line up, but they have been scoring runs most days, TBH. 

I have a hard time believing there's 1 or fewer arms in the bullpen right now and no reliable rotation pieces, but I'll admit that faith-based and not based on 2021 performance.

I think Gray will be fine next year and you've probably got 2 useful pen pieces (Finnegan and one of Thompson/Baldonado/Machado/ even Rainey - year to year variability with relievers is so high).  I'm not buying Strasburg as more than a zero and I think Corbin will be better but still a back-end innings eater type.   

The lineup is less of a problem than any of that, but the defense looks pretty ugly and that's not going to help a weak pitching staff, especially with two inexperienced catchers.  I mean, if you're a free agent pitcher looking for a make-good contract, a middling lineup with terrible defense and rookie catchers doesn't scream "rebuild your value here!" to me.

Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 11499
  • Sunshine Squad 2022
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #207: September 09, 2021, 11:01:06 AM »
Which teams are looking to shed salary.  Seems a small universe.
No clue. But every year there are teams who will mail it in early.

And shed salary isn't just "we're going to suck, got to sell." Some teams just don't want to pay an arbitration guy if they have a cheaper rookie deal player or a better fit behind. Josh Bell wasn't just moved because the Pirates were done with him. They wanted to slot in Colin Moran.

And it has to be said the new CBA will introduce a lot of strangeness.

Offline welch

  • Posts: 16298
  • The Sweetest Right Handed Swing in 1950s Baseball
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #208: September 09, 2021, 11:05:53 AM »
Two starters and a hitter. The starting pitchers because no major league team can go through a season with only Josiah Gray. Even though he looks OK, he's only one guy and he is not proven. Fedde is a number 5 starter, a guy who is effective in about half his starts. Espino is a long-reliever. With a bit of luck, Cavalli can be brought up mid-season. "Bit of luck" means no injuries. That's on the assumption that Corbin should not start and that the Nats cannot depend on Strasburg returning.

The relief pitching can be the usual collection of guys that Rizzo finds cheap. No need to spend $10 or $11 million on the next Brad Hand.

Probably need a hitter. Do need a couple of utility guys like they found in Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer, and assuming they have Alcides at SS.


Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 25690
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #209: September 09, 2021, 11:16:02 AM »
No clue. But every year there are teams who will mail it in early.

And shed salary isn't just "we're going to suck, got to sell." Some teams just don't want to pay an arbitration guy if they have a cheaper rookie deal player or a better fit behind. Josh Bell wasn't just moved because the Pirates were done with him. They wanted to slot in Colin Moran.

And it has to be said the new CBA will introduce a lot of strangeness.
Bell has been fine after a bad start but it’s just as likely you get a poor performer in that kind of deal.  Same for the Schwarber signing. 

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 5542
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #210: September 09, 2021, 11:16:32 AM »
Josh Bell cost Eddy Yean and Wil Crowe. Denard Span cost Alex Meyer.

We may not have an Alex Meyer-type prospect unless some team makes a wildly optimistic Jackson Rutledge eval, but we have pieces that can be moved to a team looking to shed salary.

Alex Meyer was a top-50 prospect when he was traded.  In the rankings released the winter of the trade, he was 23 years old and #40 in MLB rankings.  Cavalli is now 23 and ranked #41.  So, we do have a similarly-ranked pitching prospect, but I think that comparison makes it evident what you'd get in trade. 

Denard Span does not turn this crappile into a winner.  Cavalli might be a zero or injury bust (Meyer) or he might be a #2.  You do not trade a reasonable chance of 6 years of a cheap #2 starter to win 72 games instead of 68 in the short run.  Even though it worked out because Meyer got hurt, doing the Span trade today would be insanity. 

Offline Mattionals

  • Posts: 5738
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #211: September 09, 2021, 11:35:02 AM »
That's on the assumption that Corbin should not start


I think Corbin is given the opportunity to start next year. I also think next year is his "show you can return to form or become the next Ian Kennedy and be the highest paid bullpen guy" year.

Offline welch

  • Posts: 16298
  • The Sweetest Right Handed Swing in 1950s Baseball
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #212: September 09, 2021, 01:47:21 PM »

I think Corbin is given the opportunity to start next year. I also think next year is his "show you can return to form or become the next Ian Kennedy and be the highest paid bullpen guy" year.

I agree. I don't assume or even half-expect that Corbin can start. Let him be a three-inning-max relief pitcher. I would not want him as a 9th-inning guy, as a closer, though. He can lose it quickly.

Offline Mattionals

  • Posts: 5738
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #213: September 09, 2021, 01:51:28 PM »
I agree. I don't assume or even half-expect that Corbin can start. Let him be a three-inning-max relief pitcher. I would not want him as a 9th-inning guy, as a closer, though. He can lose it quickly.


The thing is, I'm guessing that the FO gives Corbin 10 starts to "prove" he can start.

Offline catocony

  • Posts: 739
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #214: September 09, 2021, 05:29:26 PM »
Corbin will start as long as he's a member of the team.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 25690
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #215: September 09, 2021, 06:10:19 PM »
Corbin will start as long as he's a member of the team.
I don’t know about that but I am sure he will be starting next year. At some point they may just need to trade him and retain most of his salary.  The receiving team could then justify putting him in the pen.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 63108
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #216: September 09, 2021, 06:46:58 PM »
Corbin will start as long as we are "rebuilding
" But, if by some magic, there comes a time when we are truly competitive again, and we have legitimate better options for the rotation, Rizzo will move him to the pen.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 63108
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #217: September 09, 2021, 09:00:10 PM »
For 2022, I'd like to see Fedde converted to a reliever. The difference between his first time through the order and his second time through the order is significant

Offline Mattionals

  • Posts: 5738
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #218: September 09, 2021, 09:13:27 PM »
For 2022, I'd like to see Fedde converted to a reliever. The difference between his first time through the order and his second time through the order is significant


Can his stuff really play up enough though? I never really trust low K guys in the pen unless they are good mop up types. Or are you suggesting that Fedde is exactly that, a good mop up or multiple inning weapon.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 63108
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #219: September 09, 2021, 10:05:50 PM »

Can his stuff really play up enough though? I never really trust low K guys in the pen unless they are good mop up types. Or are you suggesting that Fedde is exactly that, a good mop up or multiple inning weapon.
He has a 9+ K/9 the first time through the order. Thats plenty good for middle reliever

Online NatsAllThe Way

  • Posts: 14503
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #220: September 10, 2021, 09:09:17 AM »
He has a 9+ K/9 the first time through the order. Thats plenty good for middle reliever
It's what happens between the K's that's the problem.

Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 11499
  • Sunshine Squad 2022
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #221: September 10, 2021, 09:43:27 AM »
Corbin's splits against lefty batters are still pretty good. They have to try him at starter one more time, but if they move him to the pen I expect he'll be very effective.

Offline UMDNats

  • Posts: 18063
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #222: September 10, 2021, 09:48:23 AM »

Can his stuff really play up enough though? I never really trust low K guys in the pen unless they are good mop up types. Or are you suggesting that Fedde is exactly that, a good mop up or multiple inning weapon.

Fedde is basically a #6-8 starting pitcher, so honestly, a 3.50 ERA long reliever would be infinitely more valuable than whatever he is now

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 25690
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #223: September 11, 2021, 07:59:26 PM »
Phillies designated Vince Velasquez for assignment.  Still only 29.  I believe he is a free agent at year end anyway but may be someone to take a flyer on for next year.  With a short bench he could also be an asset since he can hit.  He got $4 million in his last year of arbitration so not sure what he would cost next year? $2 million?  I wanna like Vince. 

Offline Mattionals

  • Posts: 5738
Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #224: September 11, 2021, 08:46:12 PM »
Phillies designated Vince Velasquez for assignment.  Still only 29.  I believe he is a free agent at year end anyway but may be someone to take a flyer on for next year.  With a short bench he could also be an asset since he can hit.  He got $4 million in his last year of arbitration so not sure what he would cost next year? $2 million?  I wanna like Vince.


Pass. Dude is a right handed Corbin. Literally has it until he doesn't. Completely unreliable.