Author Topic: Looking ahead to 2022  (Read 4386 times)

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Online Slateman

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #100: August 25, 2021, 09:38:32 AM »
Uh, at this point, Im expecting Cavalli to be better than Strasburg. But I also think Strasburg is terribly overrated by Nats fans

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #101: August 25, 2021, 09:50:07 AM »
Uh, at this point, Im expecting Cavalli to be better than Strasburg. But I also think Strasburg is terribly overrated by Nats fans
3.16
3.00
3.14
3.46
3.60
2.52
3.74
3.32

Strasburg’s ERA by year when he was a full time starter. 2012-19. Good luck to a prospect matching that.  How many MLB pitchers were better than him over that period? 5? Maybe 10?



Offline YadiSTAR aka Smithian

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #102: August 25, 2021, 09:50:46 AM »
This feels a lot like 2010. It isn't hard to squint and see a path to a winning team, but still a lot of blank spaces in the plan.

Online Slateman

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #103: August 25, 2021, 01:51:46 PM »
3.16
3.00
3.14
3.46
3.60
2.52
3.74
3.32

Strasburg’s ERA by year when he was a full time starter. 2012-19. Good luck to a prospect matching that.  How many MLB pitchers were better than him over that period? 5? Maybe 10?



Strasburg has been a "full time" starter three times in his career.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #104: August 25, 2021, 02:04:52 PM »
Uh, at this point, Im expecting Cavalli to be better than Strasburg. But I also think Strasburg is terribly overrated by Nats fans
Strasburg's career reminds me of the joke in Annie Hall.  Customer #1 "The food is lousy at this restaurant." Customer #2: "Yes, and in such small portions."  You can't quibble at all about the quality of Strasburg's games, just the workload is small portions.  He's well past the Orchid stage, but the injuries the last two years are pretty darn significant. 

Online Slateman

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #105: August 25, 2021, 02:19:11 PM »
Strasburg's career reminds me of the joke in Annie Hall.  Customer #1 "The food is lousy at this restaurant." Customer #2: "Yes, and in such small portions."  You can't quibble at all about the quality of Strasburg's games, just the workload is small portions.  He's well past the Orchid stage, but the injuries the last two years are pretty darn significant. 
Until 2019, Strasburg had the reputation of being soft.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #106: August 25, 2021, 02:23:08 PM »
Strasburg's career reminds me of the joke in Annie Hall.  Customer #1 "The food is lousy at this restaurant." Customer #2: "Yes, and in such small portions."  You can't quibble at all about the quality of Strasburg's games, just the workload is small portions.  He's well past the Orchid stage, but the injuries the last two years are pretty darn significant.
He averaged 28 starts per year between 2012-19 based on my quick calculations. So yea he had injuries but I believe that works out to missing an average of about 5 starts per year.  I think that’s pretty good compared to most other starters not named Max. Obviously 2020-21 have been disasters.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #107: August 25, 2021, 03:34:15 PM »
He averaged 28 starts per year between 2012-19 based on my quick calculations. So yea he had injuries but I believe that works out to missing an average of about 5 starts per year.  I think that’s pretty good compared to most other starters not named Max. Obviously 2020-21 have been disasters.

Is it?  That's missing a month every season.  Clayton Kershaw has a chronic bad back and is regarded as pretty fragile, and he also averaged 28 starts per year over that time.  David Price had arm injuries that cost him several months multiple times and also averaged 28 starts in that span.  Greinke averaged 31, by comparison; Verlander 32. 

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #108: August 25, 2021, 03:37:18 PM »
Is it?  That's missing a month every season.  Clayton Kershaw has a chronic bad back and is regarded as pretty fragile, and he also averaged 28 starts per year over that time.  Greinke averaged 31, by comparison; Verlander 32.
Think of it as him having pitched 5 of 6 months.  Pitchers have arm issues.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #109: August 25, 2021, 03:40:47 PM »
Think of it as him having pitched 5 of 6 months.  Pitchers have arm issues.

The thing is, that's the healthiest period of his career.  Both before and after that, he had even worse arm issues.  His durability ceiling - at least over a stretch of more than one year - looks a lot like the floor for a lot of frontline starters.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #110: August 25, 2021, 03:42:56 PM »
The thing is, that's the healthiest period of his career.  Both before and after that, he had even worse arm issues.  His durability ceiling - at least over a stretch of more than one year - looks a lot like the floor for a lot of frontline starters.
Most starters don’t last ten years in the league. Think of all the Matt Harvey’s.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #111: August 25, 2021, 03:52:59 PM »
In the post-asterisk era at any rate. 
Most starters don’t last ten years in the league. Think of all the Matt Harvey’s.

Online UMDNats

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #112: August 25, 2021, 03:54:38 PM »
I mean our #1 overall pick SP ended up the World Series MVP and has a career 3.21 ERA (128 ERA+) with 113 Wins. Career 1.46 ERA in the postseason.

All things considered, it's a success IMO.

Offline YadiSTAR aka Smithian

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #113: August 25, 2021, 03:58:34 PM »
He averaged 28 starts per year between 2012-19 based on my quick calculations. So yea he had injuries but I believe that works out to missing an average of about 5 starts per year.  I think that’s pretty good compared to most other starters not named Max. Obviously 2020-21 have been disasters.
From 2012 through 2019, Strasburg was #8 in major league baseball in pitching fWAR.

He never lived up to draft expectations, but not everyone can be Max Scherzer. Another Stephen Straburg is a very high expectation. If Cavalli approaches Straburg, then we have a stud.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #114: August 25, 2021, 04:02:22 PM »
I mean our #1 overall pick SP ended up the World Series MVP and has a career 3.21 ERA (128 ERA+) with 113 Wins. Career 1.46 ERA in the postseason.

All things considered, it's a success IMO.

Yeah but life is tough when you’re supposed to be baseball Jesus

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #115: August 25, 2021, 04:02:46 PM »
Most starters don’t last ten years in the league. Think of all the Matt Harvey’s.

Oh, of course.  There's a definite feedback loop among performance, longevity, and injuries.  But I think of the guys who have managed to be starters for that long, he'd be on the lower end of the durability scale.  I mean, consider that he had the same number of starts per year over that period as Jordan Zimmermann, and that includes four years of Zimmerman's "arm fell off, I suck now" tour in Detroit.

I don't know how to score that, really: 10 years is a long time, and Strasburg has been very effective when he's pitched.  But now he's owed a boatload of money over a long time and seems exceedingly unlikely to pitch anywhere near the value of that contract. 

Without the extension, he had what would be considered quite a strong career.  With it...well, it's hard to know what the legacy will be yet.  What's for darn sure is that his 2019 and the team's 2019 make the picture a whole heck of a lot better.

From 2012 through 2019, Strasburg was #8 in major league baseball in pitching fWAR.

He never lived up to draft expectations, but not everyone can be Max Scherzer. Another Stephen Straburg is a very high expectation. If Cavalli approaches Straburg, then we have a stud.

The TJ is the thing people don't seem to cut him slack for on the not-being-Walter Johnson angle.  Before that surgery, he looked like an all-time great.  He never made it all the way back, which is something to marvel at considering the success he's had post-surgery (health permitting).


Offline YadiSTAR aka Smithian

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #116: August 25, 2021, 04:04:22 PM »
I'm glad Strasburg got the surgery. Just address the problem. Baseball will be delayed next season with labor dispute. Good time to do it.

Online Slateman

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #117: August 25, 2021, 04:30:39 PM »
I mean our #1 overall pick SP ended up the World Series MVP and has a career 3.21 ERA (128 ERA+) with 113 Wins. Career 1.46 ERA in the postseason.

All things considered, it's a success IMO.
Considering what he was billed as, thats a pretty big disappointment.

Online Slateman

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #118: August 25, 2021, 04:31:26 PM »
I'm glad Strasburg got the surgery. Just address the problem. Baseball will be delayed next season with labor dispute. Good time to do it.
Lol, you make it sound like its simple. Like this isnt likely a career ending issue.

Strasburg just became the pitching version of Chris Davis

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #119: August 25, 2021, 04:32:22 PM »
Considering what he was billed as, thats a pretty big disappointment.
:rofl:


Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #120: August 25, 2021, 04:33:40 PM »
Lol, you make it sound like its simple. Like this isnt likely a career ending issue.

Strasburg just became the pitching version of Chris Davis
You have no idea of whether or not he will be back or will be effective. Just admit it. And yet you are ready to put a pitcher who hasn’t ever pitched in MLB into the Hall of Fame.

Online Slateman

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #121: August 25, 2021, 04:36:50 PM »
You have no idea of whether or not he will be back or will be effective. Just admit it. And yet you are ready to put a pitcher who hasn’t ever pitched in MLB into the Hall of Fame.
Its not going to and we should all prepare ourselves for it.

And I have no idea who you're talking about

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #122: August 25, 2021, 04:56:36 PM »
Its not going to and we should all prepare ourselves for it.

And I have no idea who you're talking about
You said Cavalli would be better than Strasburg.  If he does that for 10-12 years he will make the HOF.

Online Slateman

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #123: August 25, 2021, 05:03:44 PM »
Stras isnt a HoF pitcher

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Looking ahead to 2022
« Reply #124: August 25, 2021, 05:38:36 PM »
Stras isnt a HoF pitcher
You said Cavalli would be better.