That would be 26-24 the rest of the way. I am sure the fangraphs guys have a good algorithm but given their schedule hard to see them not winning more than that. I say 87/88. They just beat the Mets yesterday with 4 regulars out. 2 of them missed the whole series.
But the Mets are currently undergoing the traditional Mets tailslide. Remember that the Philthies were handed Game 1 to them thanks to Wander Suero. Game 2 was going well until Patrick Corbin fell apart. Game 3 was a game legitimately won by the Phillies. Game 4 was in hand until the error and blow up by Finnegan.
The Phillies are just as flawed as the rest of the "likely NL East winners". The Phillies dropped 2 of 3 against the Pirates right before playing the Nats. They could still win the East, but they are a lackluster team (so are the Mess and Barves though) and I expect they get beat pretty easily by Milwaukee.
