Luis Garcia, our new man in the middle

[Natsinpwc]

Freddy Galvis will be signed to be a backup. Unless they stick with Escobar. The Nats have become the Orioles.

[Smithian]

I think they may look for a guy who is looking for a pillow contract, a chance to prove he deserves more money and years.  Something like Semien signed last year.  It would not surprise me if a SS did not end up happy with his contract offers and signs short term.  Baez, for example, or Seager, or even Story.  All 3 have not had the kind of year they would have wanted going into free agency. 

I'm fine finding the Schwarber of middle infielders. The good player who wants a prove he is worth a huge contract.

I also look at Josh Bell, Howie Kendrick, and many others and am reminded you can find passable starters for limited returns. We don't have an abundance of Top 100 prospects but we are starting to rebuild the middle of the farm with prospects you can toss into those types of trades.

[Mattionals]

I'm pretty sure with Trea Turner playing like he has been, he is exceeding the contracts that any of the FA SS are getting this year. He is looking at being a 300M player. I'm not saying he gets that, but with the existing money on the books, the Nats probably couldn't afford mega deals for Turner AND Soto. That is why you can say the Nats would pay somebody other than Turner for SS because that dude is going to get way bigger dollars than Seager or Story, especially since they are having meh seasons going into FA, like JCA said.

[Natsinpwc]

I'm pretty sure with Trea Turner playing like he has been, he is exceeding the contracts that any of the FA SS are getting this year. He is looking at being a 300M player. I'm not saying he gets that, but with the existing money on the books, the Nats probably couldn't afford mega deals for Turner AND Soto. That is why you can say the Nats would pay somebody other than Turner for SS because that dude is going to get way bigger dollars than Seager or Story, especially since they are having meh seasons going into FA, like JCA said.

The Nats are not paying a big name free agent to play SS. They are going with Garcia. You need to accept that. They are rebuilding.

[Mattionals]

The Nats are not paying a big name free agent to play SS. They are going with Garcia. You need to accept that. They are rebuilding.

I'm not saying Garcia isn't going to be the plan, I'm saying they may have ulterior motives for why he isn't starting at SS right now. I don't really buy the "let him play an easier position so he can get his bat on track, then put him at the harder defensive position" idea. If he is starting at 2B in a lost season, maybe the team wants him to be a 2B. That means there is a hole at SS. Eventually that has to be filled.

[Smithian]

He’s at 2B because they game a former gold glover doing a great job in the field at SS.

This organization started out Desmond, Espinosa, and Turner all at second when there was a more established veteran at short. Garcia is no different.

[imref]

Louie Two-Bags - 11 doubles on the year, 2 today.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He seems to be coming into some power this year. ISO around .150. Not quite middle of the pack were he a qualified 2nd baseman (that'd be .190, which seems high), but a big improvement from last year

[imref]

He seems to be coming into some power this year. ISO around .150. Not quite middle of the pack were he a qualified 2nd baseman (that'd be .190, which seems high), but a big improvement from last year

He and Kieboom have played pretty well, especially considering their ages and kieboom’s previous struggles.

[welch]

There is hope for both.

[Smithian]

Average isn’t near as important as it used to be, but Luis Garcia has to get on base a little more. I think the power is real and the power is big, but have to make sure he can make contact.

I’m still real high on Luis Garcia. I hate they threw him out there last season and wish he was not rushed, but he’s here. Good to see flashes of progress in the field and at the plate.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Don't disagree, either, Yadi worshipper. His Babip is inusually low for a reasonable speed guy with a bit of power, so some rebound appears likely without massive changes to his approach, but he should be
.250+ to be a regular.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Go with Escobar, at 35 years old, and hope that Garcia improves.

Incidentally, Gleyber Torres might be out as a Yankee starter. Maybe he will be trade-able as a 2B, although he can't play SS.

[Smithian]

Over his last 30 games (110 ABs), he is slashing .264/.302/.436

 Not great, considering only 2 homers and no stolen bases. But out of a 21 year old, that's not bad. I'm still really high on him. I don't think he will turn into Trea Turner, but is he can someday live in the range of .800 OPS with a good glove, that can be a top third player at his position in the middle infield. And every time you have a cost controlled player doing an adequate job at one spot, opens up time to fix other positions.

[welch]

Nats need a fast SS who can hit and steal bases. Garcia looks good enough to play 2B.

[Slateman]

The stolen base has never had less value than right now.

[Smithian]

The stolen base has never had less value than right now.

I think there is real value in having a guy who can swipe 20 or more bases at a high clip. But if we're talking teens, I don't see much value between there and zero. If you can't go out and be a serious base stealer at a high clip, I'd rather the runner stay planted at 1B, not risk an out, and make a walk more costly for the other team.

And no player should ever steal in front of Juan Soto.

[Slateman]

I think there is real value in having a guy who can swipe 20 or more bases at a high clip. But if we're talking teens, I don't see much value between there and zero. If you can't go out and be a serious base stealer at a high clip, I'd rather the runner stay planted at 1B, not risk an out, and make a walk more costly for the other team.

And no player should ever steal in front of Juan Soto.

Every statistical analysis disagrees with that assessment. Its nice to have, but it doesnt do much for an offense.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Every statistical analysis disagrees with that assessment. Its nice to have, but it doesnt do much for an offense.

I haven't seen a recent breakdown of the success rate you need to make  steals pay off, especially one for the current run-scoring environment.  more or less, if the success rate is in 80+%, it pays, if it is <70%, it doesn't, and in the 70s% it kind of depends on the circumstances.

[Natsinpwc]

I haven't seen a recent breakdown of the success rate you need to make  steals pay off, especially one for the current run-scoring environment.  more or less, if the success rate is in 80+%, it pays, if it is <70%, it doesn't, and in the 70s% it kind of depends on the circumstances.

Yea it’s success rate and not how many bases you steal. If you steal 9 of 10 that’s great. 

[welch]

Did the Nats get hurt when the Mets stole bases? Did Stevenson's steal of second win the game yesterday? Is the hit-and-run forbidden?

[Slateman]

I haven't seen a recent breakdown of the success rate you need to make  steals pay off, especially one for the current run-scoring environment.  more or less, if the success rate is in 80+%, it pays, if it is <70%, it doesn't, and in the 70s% it kind of depends on the circumstances.

3 of the top 5 offenses in baseball are in the bottom third of stolen bases. 1 of the top 5 teams for stolen bases is top 10 in runs per game.

The stolen base is basically stat padding at this point.

[Mattionals]

Did the Nats get hurt when the Mets stole bases? Did Stevenson's steal of second win the game yesterday? Is the hit-and-run forbidden?

I think if the ball is deadened a bit, then the importance of steals will go back up for sure. I mean, it's not hard to understand why.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

3 of the top 5 offenses in baseball are in the bottom third of stolen bases. 1 of the top 5 teams for stolen bases is top 10 in runs per game.

The stolen base is basically stat padding at this point.

reminds me of how a few years ago, ESPN tried tracking "productive outs."  Turns out it was negatively correlated with either wins or run scoring. 

[Smithian]

Did the Nats get hurt when the Mets stole bases? Did Stevenson's steal of second win the game yesterday? Is the hit-and-run forbidden?

I have been convinced that stolen bases are much less important than I used to think they are, but arguments that they simply aren't important lose me when you watch a game. I've watched enough games to see when a pitcher gets rattled by a fast runner on first. Smart hit and runs can change a game. Additionally, throws over are still throws on the arm.

It's like the old (current?) argument that lineup protection is a myth. Statistics show it may be overblown, but the idea it doesn't matter is absurd.