Completed deadline deals - 2021

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He pitched for the Nats starting in 2010 and in Mexico starting in 2018.  If time was operating conventionally, the Nats did not sign him out of the Mexican League.

unless we did the time warp again.

[Slateman]

His Mexican heritage is about as true as his mid 90s fastball

[aspenbubba]

but he's listed as having pitched at Aguascalientes in the wiki.  Did we sign him out of the Mexico League or did we sign him straight out of Cuba?

I could be very wrong but didn't he "jump ship" when the Cuban team was in Mexico and claimed asylum where we eventually signed him?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I could be very wrong but didn't he "jump ship" when the Cuban team was in Mexico and claimed asylum where we eventually signed him?

yes.  I wasn't sure if he played a few games after he defected and established Mexican residency.  I thought that back then that was the way to become a free agent and go to the highest bidder rather than coming straight to the US (which would subject you to the draft).

[imref]

Brilliant: https://twitter.com/natsmusicteachr/status/1446252350444814342?s=21

[Maxscherzercousin]

Two of the best players in baseball to the Dodgers for mediocre prospects?

[welch]

Two of the best players in baseball to the Dodgers for mediocre prospects?

- Ruiz, the catcher, looks good. Not as good as Yan Gomes, but he's young.

- Gray is a definite maybe. He pitched well in some innings and got bombed in some others. Again, he's young.

The other two have a long way to go. Casey will have a do-or-die season in AAA, but he was good in AA. Carillo failed AA, so he should repeat. Then we'll know better.

[Slateman]

I just assume this is Turner's new screen name

[HondoKillebrew]

I just assume this is Turner's new screen name

Same

[rileyn]

So the question has to be asked, was the deal worth it for the Dodgers?  Acquiring Max and Trea got them no further than they likely would have ended up without them, and they gave up two top prospects (we hope).  Having Trea for another season probably tilts it towards "yes it was worth it" but they went all in and lost.

[aspenbubba]

So the question has to be asked, was the deal worth it for the Dodgers?  Acquiring Max and Trea got them no further than they likely would have ended up without them, and they gave up two top prospects (we hope).  Having Trea for another season probably tilts it towards "yes it was worth it" but they went all in and lost.

I was wondering what team Scherzer will sign with once FA starts. He will likely want to go with a contender as he does't need the money and he is probably the most competitive baseball player in the league. He is the one that I would choose to go into a battle with. I think he may re-sign with the Dodgers.

[imref]

Or he may retire after what just happened. We’ll see

[imref]

So the question has to be asked, was the deal worth it for the Dodgers?  Acquiring Max and Trea got them no further than they likely would have ended up without them, and they gave up two top prospects (we hope).  Having Trea for another season probably tilts it towards "yes it was worth it" but they went all in and lost.

Obviously not worth it, but they’d do that deal again in a heartbeat because it gave them a better shot at winning

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Looking back at the transactions, it is spectacular how badly they botched the 2018 trade deadline.  Nothing for Kintzler, who is still pitching, Daniel Murphy, Gio, Ryan Madson, Matt Adams, Shawn Kelley, Brian Goodwin, and of course B. Harper.  I realize that it was maybe not quite time to tank at the 7/31 deadline, but to not even get one contributor for all that talent shipped out in August is amazing.  Kintzler and Goodwin were moved in July, too, and Harper of course was held and allowed to walk.  Got nothing out of that draft yet, either. 

Cross posted this from the "If we had signed Zimmermann" thread.  The fact that Ruiz, Gray, Thomas, and Adams have appeared in the majors makes the 2021 deadline deals so much better than the last time we were in a position to deal away a lot of parts at the deadline.  I think the failure to restock in 2018 has a lot to do with the paucity of upper minors talent prior to the 2021 deals.  Frankly, as much as we talk about how the Nats stripped the system to contend, the last real valuable set of minor leaguers we shipped out was in the winter before 2017 and at that deadline (Giolito, dunning, lopez, luzardo, and, from the MLB roster, Treinen).  It's been 4 seasons since the Giolito deal, and nothing significant moved since then. 

[Slateman]

The failure to restock in 2018 is because the Lerners said no to trading Harper

[imref]

The failure to restock in 2018 is because the Lerners said mo to trading Harper

oh come on.  The big pieces in that trade reportedly coming to Washington were J.B. Bukauskas and Garrett Stubbs. 

Bukauskas ended up going to Arizona in the Grienke deal in 2019. In 2021 he put up a 4.26 ERA in 12.2 IP in AAA, and a 7.79 ERA and a 1.788 WHIP as a reliever in 17.1 IP in Arizona (which means he'd have been a perfect fit for our 2021 bullpen).

Stubbs has had time in the majors in 2019, 20, and 21, but hasn't shown he can hit major league pitching yet, hitting .176 / .222 / .235 in 34 ABs this past year.  He's now 28 and jut got traded from Houston to Philly for a 22 year-old OF prospect ranked #28 in the Phillies system.

Neither were going to do much to help us restock.

Harper could have potentially extended with Houston, which meant we'd have faced him in 2019.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The failure to restock in 2018 is because the Lerners said no to trading Harper

You and Imref can fight it out over the proposed Harper deal, but what strikes me is there was a heck of a lot of other talent we essentially dumped for nothing.  Murphy, Gio, and Kintzler should have brought back something useful.  Gio did slot into a contender's rotation right away, Kintzler is on the level of major bullpen pieces that were moved this year, and Murphy was still a heck of a hitter. 

[imref]

You and Imref can fight it out over the proposed Harper deal, but what strikes me is there was a heck of a lot of other talent we essentially dumped for nothing.  Murphy, Gio, and Kintzler should have brought back something useful.  Gio did slot into a contender's rotation right away, Kintzler is on the level of major bullpen pieces that were moved this year, and Murphy was still a heck of a hitter. 

No argument there. The learners didn’t want to accept we had no chance that year.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The toughest thing for an aging contender is judging when the window is closing and getting out of the way of it.  I forget which year it was, maybe 1998, where Angelos blocked his GM (Gillick) from breaking up the team when they made a brief run near the trade deadline.  Gillick may have wanted to do it in 1997 and  Angelos blocked  him, and they did win a round in the playoffs, so Angelos thought he knew more than his GM.  At any rate, 1998 was the last time his pieces were worth anything, it chased off his GM, and they had a horrible rebuild. 

2018 is a chunk of the reason why we are staring at 90+ losses at least a couple years in a row.  It's not even like "well, we needed those guys for 2019" because they were all gone.  The only significant trade the 2018-2019 offseason was the deal for Yan Gomes.

[nfotiu]

The toughest thing for an aging contender is judging when the window is closing and getting out of the way of it.  I forget which year it was, maybe 1998, where Angelos blocked his GM (Gillick) from breaking up the team when they made a brief run near the trade deadline.  Gillick may have wanted to do it in 1997 and  Angelos blocked  him, and they did win a round in the playoffs, so Angelos thought he knew more than his GM.  At any rate, 1998 was the last time his pieces were worth anything, it chased off his GM, and they had a horrible rebuild. 

2018 is a chunk of the reason why we are staring at 90+ losses at least a couple years in a row.  It's not even like "well, we needed those guys for 2019" because they were all gone.  The only significant trade the 2018-2019 offseason was the deal for Yan Gomes.

I always feel like there are other costs to tanking too though.  If they sold at the deadline in 2018 and ended up a 90 loss team, can they turn it back on with a switch in 2019?  Does Soto develop as well and have the confidence he had in 2019 if he played out 2018 with a bunch of AAA/AAAA players?   It seems unlikely to be able to go from tanking 4th place team to World Series champs the next year.   The tea leaves are tough to read as well.   2019's team could have easily fallen flat after the trade deadline or lost the WC game and people would have been (and were) saying they should have sold then too.

[imref]

I always feel like there are other costs to tanking too though.  If they sold at the deadline in 2018 and ended up a 90 loss team, can they turn it back on with a switch in 2019?  Does Soto develop as well and have the confidence he had in 2019 if he played out 2018 with a bunch of AAA/AAAA players?   It seems unlikely to be able to go from tanking 4th place team to World Series champs the next year.   The tea leaves are tough to read as well.   2019's team could have easily fallen flat after the trade deadline or lost the WC game and people would have been (and were) saying they should have sold then too.

I guess that depends on who we would have sold. IIRC, Murphy, Harper, and Kendrick were all in the last year of their contracts so they would have been the most likely pieces to deal. We only had another year of Rendon and Eaton, which would have made Rendon at least as valuable as Turner was this past offseason. Would we have dealt both of them?  Probably not as the team was still built to win with the rotation of Max and Strasburg going into 2019.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Except for Harper, we did move Kintzler, Goodwin, Gio, Murphy, Adams, Kelley, and Madson, mostly in August.  The only significant piece we didn't move was Harper.  I think the most we got back was Austin Adams.  Only Goodwin and Kintzler were moved in July.  The rest were August (Kelley cut early, most of the rest mid-month).  You do want young guys to be around winners, but Turner, Rendon, Zimmerman, were all still here, along with Scherzer and Stras.  Dealing those guys before August would have yielded a bigger return and I don't think have poisoned Soto much more than dealing them 2-3 weeks later.

[nfotiu]

Except for Harper, we did move Kintzler, Goodwin, Gio, Murphy, Adams, Kelley, and Madson, mostly in August.  The only significant piece we didn't move was Harper.  I think the most we got back was Austin Adams.  Only Goodwin and Kintzler were moved in July.  The rest were August (Kelley cut early, most of the rest mid-month).  You do want young guys to be around winners, but Turner, Rendon, Zimmerman, were all still here, along with Scherzer and Stras.  Dealing those guys before August would have yielded a bigger return and I don't think have poisoned Soto much more than dealing them 2-3 weeks later.

You're probably right.  But dealing Harper would have been too many butterfly wings flapping for me to be comfortable 2019 would have played out like it did.   2019 was the ultimate pay-off for being a Nats fan since the beginning and I'm not letting Rizzo in the Delorean if he's going to risk going back and trading Harper to be in a better spot now!

[Slateman]

Except for Harper, we did move Kintzler, Goodwin, Gio, Murphy, Adams, Kelley, and Madson, mostly in August.  The only significant piece we didn't move was Harper.  I think the most we got back was Austin Adams.  Only Goodwin and Kintzler were moved in July.  The rest were August (Kelley cut early, most of the rest mid-month).  You do want young guys to be around winners, but Turner, Rendon, Zimmerman, were all still here, along with Scherzer and Stras.  Dealing those guys before August would have yielded a bigger return and I don't think have poisoned Soto much more than dealing them 2-3 weeks later.

Except those guys were all crap at that point.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/padres-discussed-chris-paddack-as-part-of-trade-deadline-talks-with-nationals.html

Paddack and Campusano as a starting point for Scherzer and Turner.  Apparently, Paddack hurt himself in his last start before the deadline (oblique) which may have resulted in the thing blowing up.

Paddack (who just turned 26 earlier this month) tossed 108 1/3 innings last season, as he was limited by three separate trips to the injured list due to COVID-19, an oblique strain, and then a slight UCL sprain that ended his season in mid-September. ...

After posting a solid 3.74 ERA over 174 innings in 2019-20, Paddack took a step backwards in 2021, and it’s fair to guess that his injuries likely played some role in his lesser numbers.  Plus, Paddack’s 5.07 ERA was surely impacted by a very low 60.7% strand rate, and his 4.05 SIERA paints a more favorable impression of last season’s performance.

That said, Paddack’s Statcast metrics were decidedly subpar aside from his excellent walk rate, and his hard-contact and strikeout rates were also both troublesome in 2020.  Between these numbers and his injuries, it still isn’t quite clear after parts of three MLB seasons if Paddack can be a solid contributor to a rotation, or if he might ultimately be a fringe fifth starter or depth arm.
...
Turning back to the deadline talks, it’s hard to compare offers since we don’t know the full scope of what exactly the Padres offered the Nationals for Scherzer and/or Turner.  The combo of Paddack and Campusano was certainly enough to get the ball rolling on talks, but obviously more was required to actually get Washington to part ways with either of its stars.  The Nats ended up accepting a four-player package (Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray and prospects Gerardo Carrillo and Donovan Casey) from L.A. for both Scherzer and Turner, headlined by big league-ready youngsters in Ruiz and Gray.