Completed deadline deals - 2021

[varoadking]

Is this confirmed?

No...just my wishful thinking...

[Slateman]

Schwarber would have cooled off a bit and the team would probably have won in the mid 80's

His injury saved us from a season stuck in the mud.

I dont think this team was capable of mid 80s, even with Turner, Scherzer, and Schwarber. Those guys werent pitching out of the pen, nor do they improve the 3-5 spots in the rotation

[Natsinpwc]

I dont think this team was capable of mid 80s, even with Turner, Scherzer, and Schwarber. Those guys werent pitching out of the pen, nor do they improve the 3-5 spots in the rotation

As it turned out would have taken 91 wins. And then would have to beat the Dodgers in a wild card game. Wise move to sell. 

[DPMOmaha]

As it turned out would have taken 91 wins. And then would have to beat the Dodgers in a wild card game. Wise move to sell. 

89 would have done it. Braves won it at 88.

[nfotiu]

89 would have done it. Braves won it at 88.

86 if we went 5-4 against the Braves, instead of 2-7 post deadline.   All the NL east teams padded their records beating up post-blowup Nats.

[Natsinpwc]

89 would have done it. Braves won it at 88.

Sorry. I was thinking of the wild card.

[DPMOmaha]

86 if we went 5-4 against the Braves, instead of 2-7 post deadline.   All the NL east teams padded their records beating up post-blowup Nats.

Then that bar was even lower. I think it's just a bummer of a missed opportunity to win a a very winnable division. It wouldn't have taken that much in the first third of the season to go differently for this season to have gone a completely different direction.

[welch]

Then that bar was even lower. I think it's just a bummer of a missed opportunity to win a a very winnable division. It wouldn't have taken that much in the first third of the season to go differently for this season to have gone a completely different direction.

Probably still needed another starter to replace Strasburg once it became clear that he would need surgery. Corbin was bouncing around. Fedde and Lester were awful, surefire losers. Ross had some good games. If Rizzo had found someone to start and if Ross had pitched without hurting his arm, the 2021 Nats might have been a good team.

Still, the Mets disintegrated, and the Fillies were not much better.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Schwarber's injury was a motherfreaker, but I do wonder if Rizzo would have tried to "go for it" with a healthy Schwarb hitting bombs through July. I don't think it would have been enough, but it might have been enough to convince him to make some deals at the deadline.

Don't forget, as of 6/30, we were in second, 2.5 games back of the Mets and 2.5 games ahead of the Barves.    Of course, without the Schwarber injury, Fedde and Voth breaking down after time on the COVID quarantine, Hand losing form, and Corbin blowing up in July, we would have gone for it.  That's 4 major contributors on the pitching staff and an all star in the lineup.  July was just a disaster. We went from 2 games over .500 to 8 games back, 8 games under on 7/29, the day of the break up deals.  The team had been built well enough to contend in a mixed up division and was pulling things together before the Dodgers series at the start of July.

[nfotiu]

Hudson's June injury was a pretty key domino too.   

Interesting article from Zuckerman today about how historically atrocious the bullpen was:
https://www.masnsports.com/nationals-pastime/2021/10/nats-offseason-plan-must-start-with-improved-pitching.html

It kept getting worse from month to month. After dealing away Brad Hand and Daniel Hudson at the trade deadline, the Nats bullpen went 5-22 (the fewest wins and most losses in the majors, with a 5.71 ERA (third-worst), 1.61 WHIP (worst), 5.08 walks per nine innings (worst), 1.64 homers per nine innings (second-worst), minus-1.7 WAR (worst) and 18 blown saves (most).

Oh, and the 42 losses charged to Nationals relievers for the season were the most in major league history.

The bullpen being responsible for 22 losses since July 30th is some elite level tanking.   It's kind of crazy to think we could have stayed in the division hunt until the end with a reasonable bullpen.   

[Slateman]

If you look at the pen, you would have needed to acquire at least a closer. The deadline had steep prices and I dont think Rizzo was willing to pay the price

[DPMOmaha]

I bet he would have been willing, not sure he would have had the means.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If you look at the pen, you would have needed to acquire at least a closer. The deadline had steep prices and I dont think Rizzo was willing to pay the price

Of course, by 7/29, it was clear we were out.  I'm thinking a bullpen with Hudson, Hand, and Voth performing at 1st 3 month healthy levels was adequate.  It could have been supplemented, but I don't think we needed a premium closer. 

[nfotiu]

I hate to say this, because I hate that baseball is going in this direction, but I wonder if Rizzo's approach to pitching is not keeping up with the times.  Also from that article.

“Our mantra here has been that starting pitching is the most important thing, and pitchers have to go deep in games to give us a chance to win, to take the onus off the bullpen,” Rizzo said Sunday. “I always think of it this way, right or wrong: Your starting pitchers are your best pitchers. Most relievers are failed starters that moved to the bullpen. So we’re going to count on the pitchability, the talent and the expertise of our starting pitchers to get us the bulk of our innings each game.

Tampa Bay has a very cheap pitching staff, and maybe one decent starter, but just a whole bunch of nobodies that I assume are 1-3 inning specialists and not just failed starters.  Is it even possible to have more than 1 or 2 guys who can go deep in games?   Maybe spending 80-90 million/year on the top of the rotation is now the wrong approach, and spending 90-100 million spread out more evenly on starters and relievers is the new way to go.   

I guess team's haven't had a lot of playoff success with that approach yet, but there are only like maybe 5-10 starters in all of baseball now that can be counted on to go deep in big games.   

[imref]

I hate to say this, because I hate that baseball is going in this direction, but I wonder if Rizzo's approach to pitching is not keeping up with the times.  Also from that article.

Tampa Bay has a very cheap pitching staff, and maybe one decent starter, but just a whole bunch of nobodies that I assume are 1-3 inning specialists and not just failed starters.  Is it even possible to have more than 1 or 2 guys who can go deep in games?   Maybe spending 80-90 million/year on the top of the rotation is now the wrong approach, and spending 90-100 million spread out more evenly on starters and relievers is the new way to go.   

I guess team's haven't had a lot of playoff success with that approach yet, but there are only like maybe 5-10 starters in all of baseball now that can be counted on to go deep in big games.   

been a while since i checked, but average length of start was usually a pretty solid metric that correlated with success.

[Smithian]

We won a championship two years ago. Rizzo spent a decade loading up on bullpen arms at the deadline. Him liking starting pitching isn't a backward approach.

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

Their #1 and #2 make like 5.3m combined (and the rest league minimum)...so yeah 

Tampa Bay has a very cheap pitching staff, and maybe one decent starter, but just a whole bunch of nobodies that I assume are 1-3 inning specialists and not just failed starters.  Is it even possible to have more than 1 or 2 guys who can go deep in games?   Maybe spending 80-90 million/year on the top of the rotation is now the wrong approach, and spending 90-100 million spread out more evenly on starters and relievers is the new way to go.   

I guess team's haven't had a lot of playoff success with that approach yet, but there are only like maybe 5-10 starters in all of baseball now that can be counted on to go deep in big games.   

[nfotiu]

been a while since i checked, but average length of start was usually a pretty solid metric that correlated with success.

I'd be curious to see what that looks like now.   There were only 4 pitchers in all of the MLB with over 194 innings (6ip every 5 team games) and 2 of those 4 didn't make the playoffs.   There are only 39 pitchers who even qualified for ERA leaders this year (5 ip/every 5 team games) and 20 of those didn't make the playoffs.

Conversely though, 7 of the top 10 qualified ERA leaders are on playoff teams.   3 of those guys are now on the Dodgers though!    I guess the moral of the story here is that if you have a 300 million dollar/year local TV deal, you can buy a starting rotation who can win.  But if you don't, there are not many starting pitchers out there worth throwing money at.   Starting pitchers are becoming almost extinct, and it's great if you can get one of the few remaining great ones, but it just might not be realistic anymore.

[imref]

I'd be curious to see what that looks like now.   There were only 4 pitchers in all of the MLB with over 194 innings (6ip every 5 team games) and 2 of those 4 didn't make the playoffs.   There are only 39 pitchers who even qualified for ERA leaders this year (5 ip/every 5 team games) and 20 of those didn't make the playoffs.

Conversely though, 7 of the top 10 qualified ERA leaders are on playoff teams.   3 of those guys are now on the Dodgers though!    I guess the moral of the story here is that if you have a 300 million dollar local TV deal, you can buy a starting rotation who can win.  But if you don't, there are not many starting pitchers out there worth throwing money at.   Starting pitchers are becoming almost extinct, and it's great if you can get one of the few remaining great ones, but it just might not be realistic anymore.

Per https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2021-starter-pitching.shtml

The tops for IP per GS is about the same:
Top 10: Oakland, Houston, Cincy, LAD, Milwaukee, Colorado, Toronto, Atlanta, Philly, San Fran

Botton 10: Baltimore, Tampa, San Diego, Pittsburgh, Chicago, LAA, Detroit, Miami, NYM, Minnesota

Tampa and Colorado are the outliers.

[welch]

I noticed during the summer that more and more games are given to and then decided by a bullpen. Not just the miserable Nats 2021 pen, but the teams the Nats played. (That's why I started thinking of baseball as a 5-inning game, and a "Nats win" as the sort when the Nats led at the end of the fifth). Maybe nfotiu is right (and, yes, I, also,  watched Nick Fotiu with the Rangers): baseball is turning into a bullpen game after about five innings.

And I hate that sort of baseball.

A team changes pitchers and -- bash-boom -- everything changes. Then teams change pitchers the next inning and the game changes again. Baseball becomes a series of 1-inning games, rather than a single 9-inning game.

I'm hoping that Rizzo is right and sound in his team-building strategy.

(And I think the Nats kid pitchers are nowhere near ready. Cavalli got blasted in AAA. He needs to repeat and master it. Henry should start the year at Harrisburg and, maybe by late July or August he'll be ready to try Rochester. The others are still just names in box scores, except for Adon.

Adon was amazing, but we've all seen rookie pitchers who had promising first starts and who evaporated. When I was about ten, I listened to the great Bob Wolf call the first start for the Nats by John Romanosky. He had a no-hitter going into the 8th, and then gave up a hit or two. Here is Romanosky's career: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/romonjo01.shtml

[nfotiu]

Per https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2021-starter-pitching.shtml

The tops for IP per GS is about the same:
Top 10: Oakland, Houston, Cincy, LAD, Milwaukee, Colorado, Toronto, Atlanta, Philly, San Fran

Botton 10: Baltimore, Tampa, San Diego, Pittsburgh, Chicago, LAA, Detroit, Miami, NYM, Minnesota

Tampa and Colorado are the outliers.

It seems like a soft correlation, and there is not much difference between 5 and 14 on that list, and has us as above average.    Giants didn't show up on the top 10 on my sort.
I picked a random date to go back to and chose 2012, and #1 in that stat today would have been good for 28th in 2012.

Back to TB... Tampa Bay have 14 guys with min 9 appearances with ERAs less than 3.00.    The giants have 12.  The Dodgers have 13. 

We have none.  A team like Oakland who leads in IP/GS has only 2.   

The 3 100 win teams all seem to be built around very deep pitching and not just heavy top of the rotation guys.   notwithstanding the Dodgers who have everything.

[imref]

It seems like a soft correlation, and there is not much difference between 5 and 14 on that list, and has us as above average.    Giants didn't show up on the top 10 on my sort.
I picked a random date to go back to and chose 2012, and #1 in that stat today would have been good for 28th in 2012.

Back to TB... Tampa Bay have 14 guys with min 9 appearances with ERAs less than 3.00.    The giants have 12.  The Dodgers have 13. 

We have none.  A team like Oakland who leads in IP/GS has only 2.   

The 3 100 win teams all seem to be built around very deep pitching and not just heavy top of the rotation guys.   notwithstanding the Dodgers who have everything.

Tampa is a really really fascinating team in terms of construction and pitching. Obviously it has been successful for them.

[imref]

(And I think the Nats kid pitchers are nowhere near ready. Cavalli got blasted in AAA. He needs to repeat and master it. Henry should start the year at Harrisburg and, maybe by late July or August he'll be ready to try Rochester. The others are still just names in box scores, except for Adon.

Adon was amazing, but we've all seen rookie pitchers who had promising first starts and who evaporated. When I was about ten, I listened to the great Bob Wolf call the first start for the Nats by John Romanosky. He had a no-hitter going into the 8th, and then gave up a hit or two. Here is Romanosky's career: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/romonjo01.shtml

Agreed. Cavalli might be ready at some point next year, but at nothing more than a back-of-the-rotation guy. Right now we can only count on Corbin, Gray, Fedde, and Espino plus maybe Rogers. That's an awful rotation. Adon will likely start the year in AAA.

[Slateman]

Of course, by 7/29, it was clear we were out.  I'm thinking a bullpen with Hudson, Hand, and Voth performing at 1st 3 month healthy levels was adequate.  It could have been supplemented, but I don't think we needed a premium closer. 

Brad Hand was collapsing going into the trade deadline. It was pretty clear that he wasnt a stable option. Hudson didnt want it and Finnegan clearly wasnt ready. We needed someone to shutdown the 9th inning. Kimbrel, Graveman, Kennedy, or Iglesias. We needed a dude we never had to worry about so Davey could manage innings 5 through 8.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Brad Hand was collapsing going into the trade deadline. It was pretty clear that he wasnt a stable option. Hudson didnt want it and Finnegan clearly wasnt ready. We needed someone to shutdown the 9th inning. Kimbrel, Graveman, Kennedy, or Iglesias. We needed a dude we never had to worry about so Davey could manage innings 5 through 8.

basically, in 3 words you can sum up the deadline strategy: July killed us.