Extend Bell

[Natsinpwc]

I'm a bit confused by some of the discussion here about some first base comps.

For 2021, wRC+:

Freeman: 133
Goldschmidt: 127
Rizzo:  114
Bell:  112.

I mean you can't just drop someone's first month from their stats because it was not good.  Freeman would probably be at 150.  I can't see Bell with 112 being close to Freeman or Goldschmidt.  Also, all three of the other guys listed I believe are considered better defensively than Bell.  Goldschmidt leads 1B this year in Defensive Runs Saved. 

Bell has had wild up and down swings with his offense the past few years so let's see how he does the rest of this year and beginning of next before offering him a pricey extension.

[Slateman]

You can drop it when he had covid.

[Natsinpwc]

You can drop it when he had covid.

There was no indication that he had any sort of serious issues.  Freddie Freeman did in 2020 and then won the MVP.

More Fangraphs numbers.  Total WAR.

Freeman. 3,7 (4th in MLB for 1B)
Goldschmidt  3.6 (5th in MLB)
Hoskins who someone else mentioned and who is a butcher at 1B and who missed lots of time this year.  2.4
Rizzo 1.4
Bell 0.7.

Are you seriously going to tell me that Bell is going to get $20 million a year with that type of WAR? 

[greven]

You aren't evaluating things in the right context here. When you pick comps, you pick a comp to what the player got when they got Free Agency and not what they did AFTER the contract was awarded. MAT's agents would be stupid to think MAT is going to get Heywatd money because at the time that Heywatd became a free agent, he was 26 (27?) and had some good years at the plate.


I'm not sure if Bell is going to get 100M, but comparing him to when Goldschmidt got his contract is also misleading. Goldschmidt was quite a bit better before signing the deal, same as Heyward.

That was actually exactly my argument if you look at the thread history.

[Slateman]

There was no indication that he had any sort of serious issues.  Freddie Freeman did in 2020 and then won the MVP.

More Fangraphs numbers.  Total WAR.

Freeman. 3,7 (4th in MLB for 1B)
Goldschmidt  3.6 (5th in MLB)
Hoskins who someone else mentioned and who is a butcher at 1B and who missed lots of time this year.  2.4
Rizzo 1.4
Bell 0.7.

Are you seriously going to tell me that Bell is going to get $20 million a year with that type of WAR? 

Theres nothing to support he didnt have a serious issue. And even non-serious bouts of covid have lingering issues after. Almost 5 months of performance outweighs the first three weeks coming off covid

[Mattionals]

That was actually exactly my argument if you look at the thread history.

You suggested 4 years at 10M a year. I think he will get more than that as an .800 OPS 1B with lousy defense. I think Slate is wrong that Goldschmidt is what Boras will use as a comp, because of he did, Boras is a moron.

[Natsinpwc]

Theres nothing to support he didnt have a serious issue. And even non-serious bouts of covid have lingering issues after. Almost 5 months of performance outweighs the first three weeks coming off covid

Did he have COVID in 2020?  Because his stats were real bad then also.  He's an up and down guy.  Just accept it. 

[varoadking]

Did he have COVID in 2020?  Because his stats were real bad then also.  He's an up and down guy.  Just accept it.

If Bell gets 5 years, $100MM...it won't be the Nats that give it to him...

[Slateman]

Did he have COVID in 2020?  Because his stats were real bad then also.  He's an up and down guy.  Just accept it. 

I toss all of 2020 out the window.

He hasnt been up and down this season at all. He puts another season like this one together next season, he's gonna get a big deal.

[Slateman]

Stayed hot in September. This is actually his best month of the year so far, putting up a 151 wRC+.

 Thats four months in a row with over a 120 wRC+. Why do we care about this? Because the knock on Bell has always been consistency. Even in his 2019, breakout year, he had a monster first half (really the first two months) and then only had one month of good performance after). Here, with Long and a supporting cast (or maybe just not being the ONLY good hitter), he has found consistency at the plate.

From May 9th (a full month after covid return), he's posted a .281/.365/.515 slash line (132 wRC+). I feel pretty comfortable in saying that if he doesnt get covid, his April is not nearly as atrocious as it was and he's sitting at a whole season of ~125 wRC+. Thats essentially what Pete Alonso has been this season.

He got 6.3 in arbitration last season. He has one more year of arbitration, where I would guess he gets about 9.5 million. 9.5 million is a steal for a first baseman who can put up 130 wRC+( or 30 homer/high 800s OPS or better). Ideally, I'd like a 3 year deal that ends when Soto hits free agency, but I imagine Bell will want at least one more year. So 3 years, 55 million, or 4 years, 70 million would fit nicely

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Stayed hot in September. This is actually his best month of the year so far, putting up a 151 wRC+.

 Thats four months in a row with over a 120 wRC+. Why do we care about this? Because the knock on Bell has always been consistency. Even in his 2019, breakout year, he had a monster first half (really the first two months) and then only had one month of good performance after). Here, with Long and a supporting cast (or maybe just not being the ONLY good hitter), he has found consistency at the plate.

From May 9th (a full month after covid return), he's posted a .281/.365/.515 slash line (132 wRC+). I feel pretty comfortable in saying that if he doesnt get covid, his April is not nearly as atrocious as it was and he's sitting at a whole season of ~125 wRC+. Thats essentially what Pete Alonso has been this season.

He got 6.3 in arbitration last season. He has one more year of arbitration, where I would guess he gets about 9.5 million. 9.5 million is a steal for a first baseman who can put up 130 wRC+( or 30 homer/high 800s OPS or better). Ideally, I'd like a 3 year deal that ends when Soto hits free agency, but I imagine Bell will want at least one more year. So 3 years, 55 million, or 4 years, 70 million would fit nicely

4 years, $70MM is the $10 he'll get next year and 3 years, $20MM AAV after that.  I know I'm the one who says there's no need to pay a lot for a first baseman, but at this point, nailing him down might make sense.  I don't like your hypothetical 3 year deal because that's like $22.5 AAC for the last 2 years, and I think there is less security but more AAV.

[Natsinpwc]

4 years, $70MM is the $10 he'll get next year and 3 years, $20MM AAV after that.  I know I'm the one who says there's no need to pay a lot for a first baseman, but at this point, nailing him down might make sense.  I don't like your hypothetical 3 year deal because that's like $22.5 AAC for the last 2 years, and I think there is less security but more AAV.

It makes some sense if you lack power at other positions such as LF and 3B.

[Smithian]

Nail him down so that Soto doesn't break Bond's single season walk records.

[Smithian]

I still stand by this.

They won't. Wish they would.

[Slateman]

I mean, should they? Dont see this team being competitive next season. That puts Bell at 31 going in to 2024.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/04/latest-on-nationals-extension-talks.html

It doesn’t appear as though the Nationals have had any in-depth talks with Josh Bell about a long-term contract, as president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo told The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty (Twitter links) that Juan Soto is still the top focus for an extension.  There have been more “discussions” with Soto, but until that situation is settled, any negotiations with Bell will seemingly have to wait.
...
Bell, meanwhile, had a strong performance in his own right during his first season in D.C.  The first baseman was one of many Nationals players sidelined by a COVID-19 outbreak in April, but after a slow start, Bell caught fire over the last four months and finished with 27 home runs and a .261/.347/.476 slash line over 568 plate appearances.

Should Bell repeat this performance in 2022, it’ll line him up for a nice multi-year pact in free agency.  Bell turns 30 in August and he is somewhat limited as a primary first baseman, though he did line up in both corner outfield positions on occasion last season.  With the universal DH now in place, Boras can now fully market Bell to National League teams that might have previously been unsure about his fielding future — as well, defensive metrics indicated that Bell’s 2021 glovework was the best of his career.

[imref]

i'd bet a dollar on Bell being moved by the trade line and Jake Noll playing out the 2nd half of the season as our primary 1B.

[Slateman]

His agent is Boras. He's going to free agency

[Smithian]

Haven’t I read a Soto concern is signing an extension and being stuck on a losing team for the long term?

Bell isn’t going to be a huge contract. Sign him up. Show Soto some commitment to putting legitimate major league contributors around him.

[Smithian]

Bump

[imref]

He's going to the All-Star game if he keeps this up.

[Smithian]

He's going to the All-Star game if he keeps this up.

He is due a cold streak but damn I'm going to be pissed when we let him go then spend way too long trying to plug the 1B/DH hole.

[Slateman]

Gonna be great trade bait

[imref]

He is due a cold streak but damn I'm going to be pissed when we let him go then spend way too long trying to plug the 1B/DH hole.

Jake Noll is a fine option if the playoffs are far out of reach.

[Smithian]

Jake Noll is a fine option if the playoffs are far out of reach.

I’m President of the Jake Noll Fan Club and look forward to him vindicating my faith in him.

But I’m talking about the fact this team will lose Cruz and Bell and be screwed next couple seasons. Bell should be an easy extension candidate.