Extend Bell

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Our payroll after next season is pretty damn low. The question isn't "Can we afford Bell?" it is do they think he is worth locking down 1B into the second half of the 2020's. I say yes, especially since DH seems inevitable.

Our payroll is something like $66 million next year before arbitration.  I like the guesstimate that there's $25MM in Soto / Bell, and $18 million in minors and other charges that Cot's has worked in.  That sounds like about $110 million before any add ons.  After next season, Harris ($8MM) rolls off the payroll, and we will have to fill 1st.  Is it worth signing Bell for Murphy money (3 years, $15MM AAV)?

[Slateman]

Bell pricing himself of our long-term plans more likely IMO

Correct.

Does anyone really want to give a 100+ million contract to Bell?

[UMDNats]

Bell won't sign here long term, especially since he's a Boras guy. We ride out next year with him, if we suck, deal him in July, if not, ride him into free agency and find another 1B. He's going to price himself into a 4-6 year deal soon enough at an AAV north of $15 million.

[greven]

At the end of the day he is a career 0.8ops hitter at first base. Which is ok but nothing extraordinary. For context his WRC+ is 18th among qualified first basemen this year.

I'd expect 4 years at 10m would be more than enough.

[imref]

Bell won't sign here long term, especially since he's a Boras guy. We ride out next year with him, if we suck, deal him in July, if not, ride him into free agency and find another 1B. He's going to price himself into a 4-6 year deal soon enough at an AAV north of $15 million.

I don't see Bell getting a long-term deal, poor fielding 1B'rs are pretty easy to find. But yeah, offer him a deal next year to avoid arbitration, and then either extend or trade him depending on how we're doing and our plan for Adams.

[zimm_da_kid]

I don’t like bell batting 4th.  I would, however, LOVE bell batting 5th with a righty power DH batting 4th.  Gimme Cruz, castellanos, or Martinez

[Slateman]

At the end of the day he is a career 0.8ops hitter at first base. Which is ok but nothing extraordinary. For context his WRC+ is 18th among qualified first basemen this year.

I'd expect 4 years at 10m would be more than enough.

And he and his agent would laugh.

Bell's agent will, correctly, argue, that upon being removed from the terrible organization that is Pittsburg, Josh Bell has gone on to be as valuable as Paul Goldshmidt or Anthony Rizzo, and deservers to be compensated as such.

If you remove the first two weeks of his season, during which he was recovering from covid, he's a 120 wRC+/.835 OPS. If you remove the first month of his season, during which he was recovering from covid and working on getting his timing back, he's a 128 wRC+/.878 OPS hitter. So, basically, if he doesn't get covid right as the season is starting, he's having as good a season as Jose Abreu, Rhys HOskins, and Paul Goldschmidt. And having better seasons than All Star Jesus Agiular, and Anthony Rizzo.

Whats more, is that upon leaving a terrible organization and entering one with more stability, the inconsistent hitter has become the remarkably consistent Josh Bell.

May wRC+/OPS: 110/.795
June: 132/.884
July: 130/.885
Aug: 121/.835
Sep: 142/.906

If he continues this next season, he is going to be worth a lot on the market. Switch hitting first basemen don't come around very often, and his fielding isn't nearly as bad as most people thought it would be. Guys who can OPS over .850, put up ~130 wRC+ simply aren't as easy to find as you think.

[greven]

And he and his agent would laugh.

Bell's agent will, correctly, argue, that upon being removed from the terrible organization that is Pittsburg, Josh Bell has gone on to be as valuable as Paul Goldshmidt or Anthony Rizzo, and deservers to be compensated as such.

If you remove the first two weeks of his season, during which he was recovering from covid, he's a 120 wRC+/.835 OPS. If you remove the first month of his season, during which he was recovering from covid and working on getting his timing back, he's a 128 wRC+/.878 OPS hitter. So, basically, if he doesn't get covid right as the season is starting, he's having as good a season as Jose Abreu, Rhys HOskins, and Paul Goldschmidt. And having better seasons than All Star Jesus Agiular, and Anthony Rizzo.

Whats more, is that upon leaving a terrible organization and entering one with more stability, the inconsistent hitter has become the remarkably consistent Josh Bell.

May wRC+/OPS: 110/.795
June: 132/.884
July: 130/.885
Aug: 121/.835
Sep: 142/.906

If he continues this next season, he is going to be worth a lot on the market. Switch hitting first basemen don't come around very often, and his fielding isn't nearly as bad as most people thought it would be. Guys who can OPS over .850, put up ~130 wRC+ simply aren't as easy to find as you think.

You are assuming that he will continue his streak for the rest of this season and next year. That is a pretty big assumption to make for a player that has not had that kind of consistent production at any point in his career.

If he does indeed perform like you are describing sure, he will be more expensive. (But still less than Rizzo or Goldschmit since he lacks the career numbers, and while his defense has not been absolutely horrible, its a far cry from the gloves of those two) But that is a LOT to assume.

Fact of the matter is, if Josh Bell were to hit FA today, he will not command nearly the amount you seem to think he will.

[greven]

Also the comparison to Goldschmit is flat out ridiculous. Take a look at his numbers before he signed that contract, his career lows are around Bell's current streak with much better defense to boot

[Slateman]

You are assuming that he will continue his streak for the rest of this season and next year. That is a pretty big assumption to make for a player that has not had that kind of consistent production at any point in his career.

If he does indeed perform like you are describing sure, he will be more expensive. (But still less than Rizzo or Goldschmit since he lacks the career numbers, and while his defense has not been absolutely horrible, its a far cry from the gloves of those two) But that is a LOT to assume.

Fact of the matter is, if Josh Bell were to hit FA today, he will not command nearly the amount you seem to think he will.

He's done it for four months now. And he's currently having his best month. I think it's a fairly easy assumption to make that Bell will finish this season like he has the previous four months.  As for next season, why would he not hit well? Its not like he's old and will suddenly drop off a cliff. He's going to be back here in DC so he has a stable environment. I see no reason not to expect similar results. He's been a good, if inconsistent, hitter for a while.

So yea, I think its pretty safe to say that Josh Bell is quickly becoming expensive. Scott Boras got Eric Hosmer 144 million dollars and he had worse career numbers than Bell. I assume that Boras is going to get Bell a big contract. If Bell continues to hit at his current rate over the majority of next season, Boras will have two seasons of data to point to and justify Bell's contract requests. Oh and the fact that Bell will be in his prime will also help.

[Slateman]

Also the comparison to Goldschmit is flat out ridiculous. Take a look at his numbers before he signed that contract, his career lows are around Bell's current streak with much better defense to boot

Except that's what the Cards are paying for now. Goldy costs 26 million a year to put up numbers that are basically what Josh Bell is doing.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

You are assuming that he will continue his streak for the rest of this season and next year. That is a pretty big assumption to make for a player that has not had that kind of consistent production at any point in his career.

If he does indeed perform like you are describing sure, he will be more expensive. (But still less than Rizzo or Goldschmit since he lacks the career numbers, and while his defense has not been absolutely horrible, its a far cry from the gloves of those two) But that is a LOT to assume.

Fact of the matter is, if Josh Bell were to hit FA today, he will not command nearly the amount you seem to think he will.

they've played close to 140 games and have less than 25 games left.  I think it is harder to make the case that he's going to revert to early April offense than it is to say he keeps on doing what he's been doing for 4+ months.

Hey, if Bell is kept, not dealt, and good, depending on the CBA you could always make him a qualifying offer rather than a big extension.  I don't think you need to be getting into the  multiple years at 3 - 4 times his current salary range. 

[Slateman]

120-130 wRC+ first baseman really aren't as easy to replace as is being said here.

[greven]

Except that's what the Cards are paying for now. Goldy costs 26 million a year to put up numbers that are basically what Josh Bell is doing.

So I guess we should be paying the FA equivalent of Sean Nolin Strasburg money now? Since the Nats are paying him 25m+ to not pitch, Nolin's clearly hitting that bar of production

They paid that money because they expected better production lol, what a weird argument.

[varoadking]

So I guess we should be paying the FA equivalent of Sean Nolin Strasburg money now? Since the Nats are paying him 25m+ to not pitch, Nolin's clearly hitting that bar of production

They paid that money because they expected better production lol, what a weird argument.

$35MM...for each of the next 5 years...

[Natsinpwc]

they've played close to 140 games and have less than 25 games left.  I think it is harder to make the case that he's going to revert to early April offense than it is to say he keeps on doing what he's been doing for 4+ months.

Hey, if Bell is kept, not dealt, and good, depending on the CBA you could always make him a qualifying offer rather than a big extension.  I don't think you need to be getting into the  multiple years at 3 - 4 times his current salary range.

Can you do the qualifiying offer and get a draft pick for someone who you traded for? 

[UMDNats]

120-130 wRC+ first baseman really aren't as easy to replace as is being said here.

Seriously.

A 125 OPS+ would put him around Goldschmidt, Hoskins, Freeman territory. He's at 118 OPS+ right now which is a tick below but like Slate has said, the first month he literally was recovering from COVID.

[Slateman]

So I guess we should be paying the FA equivalent of Sean Nolin Strasburg money now? Since the Nats are paying him 25m+ to not pitch, Nolin's clearly hitting that bar of production

They paid that money because they expected better production lol, what a weird argument.

Boras is going to point to Goldshmidt and Rizzo and explain to teams that Bell is hitting just as well, if not better, and is a bargain at 5 years, 100 million dollars.

[zimm_da_kid]

A good handful of people on here seem to think he’s pretty valuable.  What do you think he could fetch in a trade this offseason then?  I could see up and coming teams interested in him.  Maybe the Mariners?  At his salary even the rays could be interested

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Boras is going to point to Goldshmidt and Rizzo and explain to teams that Bell is hitting just as well, if not better, and is a bargain at 5 years, 100 million dollars.

In terms of team construction, that's a deal I don't do even if he's earned it. I just don't believe in long term commitments for large money at 1st.  That's a position where there always seems to be useful bats available every year at less than $10MM.  If he turns in another good offensive year in the current range, I make a QO and take the pick when someone else offers him the big deal.  Even a 120 wRC+ only puts him in the middle of the pack among qualifies 1st basemen this year. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

A good handful of people on here seem to think he’s pretty valuable.  What do you think he could fetch in a trade this offseason then?  I could see up and coming teams interested in him.  Maybe the Mariners?  At his salary even the rays could be interested

ty france.

I think keeping him for the start of next year is important for roster construction.  It's one fewer position to fill for next year.  I'd rather limit the number of starting position player pickups to 1 or 2.  If he's decent and we are out of contention, he can be flipped at the deadline.  I don't see him as super valuable in trade this offseason because it is only one year of control (plus, of course, the ability to offer a QO if the CBA still has that).

[UMDNats]

Yeah I think he's more valuable to us playing 1B next year for $10 million than in a deal. We have so many gaps to fill just having a good clubhouse guy and productive hitter at 1B is so helpful.

[nfotiu]

Yeah I think he's more valuable to us playing 1B next year for $10 million than in a deal. We have so many gaps to fill just having a good clubhouse guy and productive hitter at 1B is so helpful.

I think so too.   Ideally if you could get a team that is close to .500 mixing in some guys like Bell with young guys, that puts us in a lot better position for 2023 vs going all prospects and losing 100 games.  The former go a long ways to making a guy like Soto happier than suffering through 100 loss season with no light at the end of the tunnel.

[greven]

Boras is going to point to Goldshmidt and Rizzo and explain to teams that Bell is hitting just as well, if not better, and is a bargain at 5 years, 100 million dollars.

Sure and I'm sure MAT's agent is going to point to Jason Heyward and say MAT is a bargain at 6 years/150M. No team is going to take Goldschmit's contract for his current production

Rizzo was offered a 5y/70m contract by the Cubs (which he turned down). Rizzo has a much better track record, is a better defender, is hitting as well as Bell right now, and i'm pretty doubtful he would land a 100M contract.

[Mattionals]

Sure and I'm sure MAT's agent is going to point to Jason Heyward and say MAT is a bargain at 6 years/150M. No team is going to take Goldschmit's contract for his current production

Rizzo was offered a 5y/70m contract by the Cubs (which he turned down). Rizzo has a much better track record, is a better defender, is hitting as well as Bell right now, and i'm pretty doubtful he would land a 100M contract.

You aren't evaluating things in the right context here. When you pick comps, you pick a comp to what the player got when they got Free Agency and not what they did AFTER the contract was awarded. MAT's agents would be stupid to think MAT is going to get Heywatd money because at the time that Heywatd became a free agent, he was 26 (27?) and had some good years at the plate.


I'm not sure if Bell is going to get 100M, but comparing him to when Goldschmidt got his contract is also misleading. Goldschmidt was quite a bit better before signing the deal, same as Heyward.