At the end of the day he is a career 0.8ops hitter at first base. Which is ok but nothing extraordinary. For context his WRC+ is 18th among qualified first basemen this year.
I'd expect 4 years at 10m would be more than enough.
And he and his agent would laugh.
Bell's agent will, correctly, argue, that upon being removed from the terrible organization that is Pittsburg, Josh Bell has gone on to be as valuable as Paul Goldshmidt or Anthony Rizzo, and deservers to be compensated as such.
If you remove the first two weeks of his season, during which he was recovering from covid, he's a 120 wRC+/.835 OPS. If you remove the first month of his season, during which he was recovering from covid and working on getting his timing back, he's a 128 wRC+/.878 OPS hitter. So, basically, if he doesn't get covid right as the season is starting, he's having as good a season as Jose Abreu, Rhys HOskins, and Paul Goldschmidt. And having better seasons than All Star Jesus Agiular, and Anthony Rizzo.
Whats more, is that upon leaving a terrible organization and entering one with more stability, the inconsistent hitter has become the remarkably consistent Josh Bell.
May wRC+/OPS: 110/.795
June: 132/.884
July: 130/.885
Aug: 121/.835
Sep: 142/.906
If he continues this next season, he is going to be worth a lot on the market. Switch hitting first basemen don't come around very often, and his fielding isn't nearly as bad as most people thought it would be. Guys who can OPS over .850, put up ~130 wRC+ simply aren't as easy to find as you think.