Extend Bell

[Slateman]

.

Funny...Rizzo said nobody was interested in Bell at the trade deadline...

I dont think thats what Rizzo said.

[bluestreak]

Rockies also said not much interest in Story. So take what these guys say with a grain of salt.

[Smithian]

If he repeats his May 9 - present performance, Bell will easily command 20+ million AAV over the course of 6-8 years

If the Nationals are planning on contending with Soto, they'll have to add sluggers around him. May as well lock in the slugger at 1B for around $18 to $20 million AAV.

What I meant is it isn't like Turner who may well find himself closer to $300 million then $200 million. Bell will be much lower.

[UMDNats]

woa ... wait a second.  First, folks were saying Bell was likely more expensive than Schwarber due to the extra year, and Schwarber got back a prospect who is in our top 10.  Now you are saying that Bell wouldn't have gotten a decent guy back. 

Bottom line for me is I think the BoSox messed up in not trading for Bell.

By turd prospects I meant non-impact prospect in the next year or so, when Bell has the most value to us. Sorry. A couple low-A top-20 guys is a solid return for him but not worth our trouble.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

By turd prospects I meant non-impact prospect in the next year or so, when Bell has the most value to us. Sorry. A couple low-A top-20 guys is a solid return for him but not worth our trouble.

How does a 29-year old Bell hold any value for a team that just traded away everything?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

How does a 29-year old Bell hold any value for a team that just traded away everything?

team controlled for next year and likely cheap. Can deal him in the off season or next deadline.  IT would not be unreasonable to offer an affordable 3 year contract if the team likes him so we can have a position locked down for Soto's 3 years of control.   

[Smithian]

How does a 29-year old Bell hold any value for a team that just traded away everything?

Because you need someone who prevents Juan Soto from being walked every at bat. Josh Bell from breaking IBB records, is affordable, and is young enough for a first baseman that I expect him to be productive well into the 2020's if they want to keep him. He moves well.

[imref]

Interesting analysis of Josh Bell, arguing that he likely doesn't merit a pre-arbitration contract offer next year as he'd be cheaper to sign as a FA:

https://www.talknats.com/2021/08/13/josh-bell-seemed-lock-2022-final-arb-eligible-season/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Interesting analysis of Josh Bell, arguing that he likely doesn't merit a pre-arbitration contract offer next year as he'd be cheaper to sign as a FA:

https://www.talknats.com/2021/08/13/josh-bell-seemed-lock-2022-final-arb-eligible-season/

I don't quite buy the numbers the author looks at in terms of performance due to a mix of short and long stats, average not OBP, etc..., so I did a quick look at his performance since mid-May vs other 1st basemen on using fWAR.  As much as we talk about how he's bounced back since his awful start, I pulled his fWAR using 5-15, 5-23, and 6-1 as the starting date for normal Josh Bell, and his fWAR were consistently near the bottom 1/3 of all qualified 1Bs since that time. He may be a non-tender candidate.  Schoop, surprisingly, is near the top and an FA. 

[imref]

I don't quite buy the numbers the author looks at in terms of performance due to a mix of short and long stats, average not OBP, etc..., so I did a quick look at his performance since mid-May vs other 1st basemen on using fWAR.  As much as we talk about how he's bounced back since his awful start, I pulled his fWAR using 5-15, 5-23, and 6-1 as the starting date for normal Josh Bell, and his fWAR were consistently near the bottom 1/3 of all qualified 1Bs since that time. He may be a non-tender candidate.  Schoop, surprisingly, is near the top and an FA. 

at least Will Crowe has been awful for Pittsburgh.

[Slateman]

I don't quite buy the numbers the author looks at in terms of performance due to a mix of short and long stats, average not OBP, etc..., so I did a quick look at his performance since mid-May vs other 1st basemen on using fWAR.  As much as we talk about how he's bounced back since his awful start, I pulled his fWAR using 5-15, 5-23, and 6-1 as the starting date for normal Josh Bell, and his fWAR were consistently near the bottom 1/3 of all qualified 1Bs since that time. He may be a non-tender candidate.  Schoop, surprisingly, is near the top and an FA. 

Since May 15, Bell has an .800+ OPS and 121 wRC+

That puts him 11th among first basemen in wRC+, and 8th in OPS.

He's not getting non-tendered. Talknats is a bunch of donks

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Since May 15, Bell has an .800+ OPS and 121 wRC+

That puts him 11th among first basemen in wRC+, and 8th in OPS.

He's not getting non-tendered. Talknats is a bunch of donks

fWAR dings him on d

[sixthree175]

Since May 15, Bell has an .800+ OPS and 121 wRC+

That puts him 11th among first basemen in wRC+, and 8th in OPS.

He's not getting non-tendered. Talknats is a bunch of donks

I think he needs to play everyday to stay hot.  He's not the type to wake up out of a deep sleep and hit a home run.  I believe that's why nobody wanted him last month.  It needs to be a perfect fit and there were no perfect fits.  JCA said the White Sox could have used him.  I just don't see it.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I think he needs to play everyday to stay hot.  He's not the type to wake up out of a deep sleep and hit a home run.  I believe that's why nobody wanted him last month.  It needs to be a perfect fit and there were no perfect fits.  JCA said the White Sox could have used him.  I just don't see it.

no, I said the team that traded for Schwarber could have used Bell more. Those Sox.  They are the ones who who need a first baseman who hits RHP

[Slateman]

fWAR dings him on d

Its first base. Like its nice to have good defense, but its not crucial or even that important. Bell is basically producing at a Rhys Hoskins level of performance. Teams arent going to non-tender him over a ~10mil

I think he needs to play everyday to stay hot.  He's not the type to wake up out of a deep sleep and hit a home run.  I believe that's why nobody wanted him last month.  It needs to be a perfect fit and there were no perfect fits.  JCA said the White Sox could have used him.  I just don't see it.

Yea, I'm not buying this "no one wanted Bell" bullcrap that popped up on this board. I just dont think anyone offered Rizzo something worth taking.

[sixthree175]

no, I said the team that traded for Schwarber could have used Bell more. Those Sox.  They are the ones who who need a first baseman who hits RHP

Sorry, my error.

[sixthree175]

Sorry, my error.

Having said that, I think they're planning to play Schwarber at first base.  They'd rather have 2+ months of Schwarber than be strapped with another year of Bell.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Having said that, I think they're planning to play Schwarber at first base.  They'd rather have 2+ months of Schwarber than be strapped with another year of Bell.

I don't know if they project Casas next year. I just find it head scratching that they are going into the stretch and potential playoffs banking on a guy who has never played first to play there.

[aspenbubba]

Why? He is overtaking Zim in GIDP and average is dropping.

[Smithian]

[Slateman]

I think he's pricing himself out of our budget

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I think he's pricing himself out of our budget

budget is not an issue.  I don't see the call "he's back if he's $8 million in arb but not if he's $10 million or more."  He's not doubling his contract in arb off of this year.  Rather than this being a budget issue, it's whether he's making himself too valuable to keep for next year rather trade.

I really don't see the ownership telling Rizzo, "you have $100 million, not $103 million, so Bell must go."

[UMDNats]

Bell pricing himself of our long-term plans more likely IMO

[Smithian]

At some point the Nationals have to add in another slugger to protect Soto. Josh Bell isn't going to be an insane $30 million a year guy.  I also think if they plan on keeping Soto they need to show a willingness to build around him.

I hope they keep him for next year at the very least. Soto-Bell-Yadi-Ruiz could be a nasty middle of the order, especially if Lane Thomas keep raking against lefties and can be mixed in.

[Smithian]

budget is not an issue.  I don't see the call "he's back if he's $8 million in arb but not if he's $10 million or more."  He's not doubling his contract in arb off of this year.  Rather than this being a budget issue, it's whether he's making himself too valuable to keep for next year rather trade.

I really don't see the ownership telling Rizzo, "you have $100 million, not $103 million, so Bell must go."

Our payroll after next season is pretty damn low. The question isn't "Can we afford Bell?" it is do they think he is worth locking down 1B into the second half of the 2020's. I say yes, especially since DH seems inevitable.