A 3.33 ERA after getting crushed his 1st start, 20 inning scoreless streak, several ERA & defense independent measures clustering around 4 runs, best K/BB ratio of his career in the majors . . . So, why is he doing well and can this stick?
At this point, he's in his 4th season of pitching 50+ innings in the majors, currently at 51.1, with his high being 78 in 2019. Comparing seasons, in some ways, this looks like he's getting some "luck" in a very low BABIP rate (.241) coupled with his lowest HR/fly ball rate (12%, vs. career 19%) and HR/9 (0.88 vs. 1.43). Groundball rate is roughly constant through his career (52% this year, 53% career). More Ks, no more BBs, fewer flies going out, balls in play not dropping for hits, going to guess that's going to be a great leap forward when combined. Maybe we should expect an ERA closer to 4 when balls start falling more? Should we expect balls to start flying out more?
Looking at his batted ball data, he seems to have swapped line drives for flies in comparison to 2018-2020. highest fly rate (31% vs. 27% career). Launch angle is back at his 2019 (highest angle) level (7.3% v. 7.2% in 2019), which is a rebound from last year's 2.5%. Relative to 2018-20, he's not being pulled as much, with a shift from pull to center of about 10% of his contact. Hard contact is constant, and there's actually been a shift towards medium contact vs. soft the past 2 years. Maybe some of the better BABIP is due to more flies to Victor? But he had a similar BABIP season last year, so ???
Pitch data shows his fastball is at his highest (93.9 v career 93.2). He's changed his fastball / cutter mix, from a career 53.9%/ 17.5% to 46.6% / 25.4%, and throwing a lot more change ups. He's throwing his highest % of first pitches for strikes (64%). Just in general, his pitches are more effective.
All data:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/erick-fedde/17425/stats?position=PI honestly can't figure whether he's for real. I expect some reversion, but if he ends up closer to a 3.75 ERA, I'll be very happy. It looks to me like if he can keep the fly distribution towards Victor and not crushed, some of that BABIP luck should stick and maybe fewer HRs too because it is the deep part of parks and balls must be crushed to get out.
