Author Topic: If We Managed the Nats  (Read 629 times)

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Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #25: June 04, 2021, 07:33:35 PM »
Oh so we're just going to ignore last year's .900+ OPS and 154 wRC+?
It’s a what have you done for me lately world. 

Offline hotshot

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #26: June 04, 2021, 08:46:15 PM »
It’s a what have you done for me lately world.
Rebuilds are hardly a guaranteed route back. Just ask the Orioles.


Online Slateman

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #27: June 04, 2021, 08:47:52 PM »
It’s a what have you done for me lately world. 
Well he's actually played four games in a row. Thats more than Stras has accomplished

Online Slateman

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #28: June 04, 2021, 08:48:19 PM »
Rebuilds are hardly a guaranteed route back. Just ask the Orioles.


Okay, but the current path is guaranteed to not get you to the postseason

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #29: June 04, 2021, 09:58:25 PM »
Between 2012 and 2019 the Nationals were routinely preseason World Series favorites and often one of the best teams in the NL. It was the result of arguably the first modern rebuild in MLB history, orchestrated by Rizzo. The model was later followed by the Astros and Cubs who both won a World Series that way. It was also followed by the Braves, Padres, and White Sox, none of whom have won the World Series yet but all of whom are having great 2021 seasons.

That's a much longer track record of success than trying to supplement a bad team with acquisitions like late-career Schwarber and Bell. And it's a made-in-Washington strategy.

Offline HondoKillebrew

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #30: June 04, 2021, 10:08:20 PM »
Between 2012 and 2019 the Nationals were routinely preseason World Series favorites and often one of the best teams in the NL. It was the result of arguably the first modern rebuild in MLB history, orchestrated by Rizzo. The model was later followed by the Astros and Cubs who both won a World Series that way. It was also followed by the Braves, Padres, and White Sox, none of whom have won the World Series yet but all of whom are having great 2021 seasons.

That's a much longer track record of success than trying to supplement a bad team with acquisitions like late-career Schwarber and Bell. And it's a made-in-Washington strategy.

Were the Nats really the first to do that? 

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #31: June 04, 2021, 10:13:22 PM »
I guess the Marlins after 1997 and 2003 might be modern rebuilds? The Nats always stuck out in my mind as the first team to not even give the pretense of trying to compete.

Online Slateman

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #32: June 04, 2021, 10:14:21 PM »
Were the Nats really the first to do that? 
No. The Rangers were in last place in 2007, and made back to back WS in 2009 and 2010

Tigers were putrid in 2003, but were a monster within three years.

Offline Smithian

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #33: June 04, 2021, 10:37:15 PM »
As the discussion in this thread has shown, the issue with the Nationals cannot be fixed with mere manager-level decisions like who starts where and who bats in what order, but only by General Manager level decisions.

Personally, if I were GM I would start the rebuild now.
I would give this team to the trade deadline. If they don't take off, blow it up and sell everything that moves. Move Scherzer, move Turner for nice packages. Move Schwarber and Castro types for low major fliers. Turn the second half of this season into a try out.

If they don't win this year, no point in even trying next season. See if we can have some lightning strike and wake up in early 2023 with some nice pieces around Soto to either slot in or flip for trades.

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #34: June 05, 2021, 07:50:20 AM »
No. The Rangers were in last place in 2007, and made back to back WS in 2009 and 2010

Tigers were putrid in 2003, but were a monster within three years.

This morning in the shower I realized that the Cleveland Indians consciously dismantled what was left of their legendary 90's team after the 2001 season to begin a youth movement that eventually led them to the 2007 ALCS.

But regardless of who invented the tear-down and rebuild, the Nationals successfully executed it at the dawn of a decade in which the strategy went entirely mainstream, being employed even by big market teams.

Offline Smithian

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #35: June 05, 2021, 08:15:48 AM »
The Nationals were never good enough in DC to constitute a tear down.

I agree Rizzo did a whole lot of good building this from the bottom up, but let’s not act like there was a conscious decision this millennium to dissemble a good team.

Online Slateman

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #36: June 05, 2021, 08:21:47 AM »
The Nationals were never good enough in DC to constitute a tear down.


Key point. The Nats were always terrible until 2012.

Instead of a rebuild, I'd like the Nats to copy what the Yankees did in 2016. Instead of a full rebuild, they capitalized on three trades and used their financial flexibility to get right back to the playoffs the next year

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #37: June 05, 2021, 08:37:30 AM »
The Nationals were never good enough in DC to constitute a tear down.

I agree Rizzo did a whole lot of good building this from the bottom up, but let’s not act like there was a conscious decision this millennium to dissemble a good team.
Agree. There was nothing to tear down from. MLB had allowed the club to be gutted. It was basically an expansion team.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #38: June 05, 2021, 11:00:03 AM »
Agreed...it's staring Rizzo right in the face...but the Lerners likely don't want to hear it...
Svrluga had an excellent column on this.  Talking about how Rizzo has charts for his 1 year plan, his 3 year, and his 5 year.  He then compares the situation from 2012 through the last decade to now.  In 2012, every regular, 4 out of the 5 starters, and the top 2 relievers were locked in for 2013, and only Michael Morse would be an FA before 2014.  Talks about how lines up a replacement before a guy goes (Rendon for LaRoche with Zim to 1st, Turner for Desmond, Soto for Harper, Scherzer for JZ).  Then compares to now.  8 of those same 14 spots are FAs at the end of the year, 2 more next.   Stras is the only guy on the roster on the 5 year board

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #39: June 05, 2021, 12:25:26 PM »
Svrluga had an excellent column on this.  Talking about how Rizzo has charts for his 1 year plan, his 3 year, and his 5 year.  He then compares the situation from 2012 through the last decade to now.  In 2012, every regular, 4 out of the 5 starters, and the top 2 relievers were locked in for 2013, and only Michael Morse would be an FA before 2014.  Talks about how lines up a replacement before a guy goes (Rendon for LaRoche with Zim to 1st, Turner for Desmond, Soto for Harper, Scherzer for JZ).  Then compares to now.  8 of those same 14 spots are FAs at the end of the year, 2 more next.   Stras is the only guy on the roster on the 5 year board
Stras as your one sure fire guy in five years is really sad.

Offline varoadking

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #40: June 05, 2021, 12:43:46 PM »
Svrluga had an excellent column on this.  Talking about how Rizzo has charts for his 1 year plan, his 3 year, and his 5 year.  He then compares the situation from 2012 through the last decade to now.  In 2012, every regular, 4 out of the 5 starters, and the top 2 relievers were locked in for 2013, and only Michael Morse would be an FA before 2014.  Talks about how lines up a replacement before a guy goes (Rendon for LaRoche with Zim to 1st, Turner for Desmond, Soto for Harper, Scherzer for JZ).  Then compares to now.  8 of those same 14 spots are FAs at the end of the year, 2 more next.   Stras is the only guy on the roster on the 5 year board

Pretty bleak outlook...

Offline Five Banners

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #41: June 05, 2021, 12:57:56 PM »
Stras as your one sure fire guy in five years is really sad.

The consensus first overall pick, which means just about everybody would have picked him

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #42: June 05, 2021, 01:59:59 PM »
Stras as your one sure fire guy in five years is really sad.
the rest are all projections. 

Offline Mattionals

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #43: June 05, 2021, 02:47:04 PM »
Pretty bleak outlook...

I think this is a very bizarre year for the franchise.

2005-2011 was just suck city. I hesitate with 2005 and 2011 but I include them anyway. 2005 the team definitely OVER produced, and 2011 was maybe the beginning of setting right the path of having a more "winning team".

2012-2020 were the contender years. 2020 was such a whack year that it only counts in there because the Nats brought back many guys from the WS run to try and repeat but got bit by a bum season and father time catching up to guys.

2021 is really the first season where it seems like the direction isn't quite right. The "big moves" this offseason were to pick up a buy low candidate 1B, cash in on a weird market for a previously dominant reliever, bring in another veteran starter on a cheap deal, and finally add in an interesting player to "boost offense" in LF. The rest was bank on better years from guys who were hurt/underperformed in 2020, and/or hope the only two prospects close enough to the majors developed. So far, we've seen a real mixed bag. I think the bar is still set pretty low because that WS run was so spectacular.

I was at last night's game in Philly, and aside from all the great things I can say about how wonderful it feels to have gone to a real live baseball game again, I came away with a different feel for this year's team. I am rooting for guys like Schwarber and Bell because, I don't really know how to say it, but I feel like this is the perfect time for them to maybe prove their abilities and get shipped away if they build up their trade value. This is like the weird "intermediary" years of the franchise. Take on some weird contracts for players who have lots of potential but haven't shown it (or haven't shown it in a while) and see where you go. Maybe it's more like the goal isn't so much to go "all in", but to restock the team without having to tank. The farm system is barren thanks to all the moves made to bring that magical WS run to town, and this isn't exactly news to anyone. Instead of trying to trade away everybody, I think maybe it's a plan of "pick a guy to build around and put out a team that basically holds it's head above water each year". Maybe a few years of that means that you were able to cash in on Schwarber/Bell/Hand for some above average prospects who could maybe turn into something. Not talking about getting All Stars for each and every position, but get some prospects back into the pipeline who could at least come up and be decent major leaguers.

Apologies for the walls of text.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #44: June 05, 2021, 03:22:39 PM »
2011 is a really underrated year for this franchise.  You could really see things starting to turn for the better.  I had more fun as a fan that year than I did during a lot of the "contending" years.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #45: June 05, 2021, 04:00:16 PM »
the rest are all projections.
If Kieboom was good he would be there also.

Offline Turnertheburner

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #46: June 05, 2021, 06:32:39 PM »
I would give this team to the trade deadline. If they don't take off, blow it up and sell everything that moves. Move Scherzer, move Turner for nice packages. Move Schwarber and Castro types for low major fliers. Turn the second half of this season into a try out.

If they don't win this year, no point in even trying next season. See if we can have some lightning strike and wake up in early 2023 with some nice pieces around Soto to either slot in or flip for trades.

Totally agree, this scenario of a couple of young stars and the rest either older non-starter material or development players (Victor/Garcia,Kieboom) isn’t working (at least yet). The farm system is in pitiful shape.
I don’t think any level of minor league teams have a winning record.

The Nat’s have a couple of players (traded) that could provide perhaps the talent they need to succeed in the future.

 

Online Slateman

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #47: June 05, 2021, 06:34:34 PM »
I would give this team to the trade deadline. If they don't take off, blow it up and sell everything that moves. Move Scherzer, move Turner for nice packages. Move Schwarber and Castro types for low major fliers. Turn the second half of this season into a try out.

If they don't win this year, no point in even trying next season. See if we can have some lightning strike and wake up in early 2023 with some nice pieces around Soto to either slot in or flip for trades.
Theres no point in waiting. There were a number of things that had to happen for this team to be competitive. They arent. Corbin stinks. Strasburg isnt coming back for a while, and who knows if he'll be good when he comes back. Bell hasnt bounced back.

There simply isnt enough in the cupboards to find a 130+ wRC+ hitter and another 2/3 starter to get back into the race. Theres no reason to delay this.

Offline hotshot

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #48: June 05, 2021, 07:55:20 PM »
Lerner seems to me to be the sort of owner who would be averse to "giving up" during a season, regardless of the compelling reasons to do so. Hope I'm wrong.

Offline Smithian

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Re: If We Managed the Nats
« Reply #49: June 07, 2021, 11:33:08 AM »
2011 is a really underrated year for this franchise.  You could really see things starting to turn for the better.  I had more fun as a fan that year than I did during a lot of the "contending" years.
The first 50-60 games of 2010 when the Nationals were scrapping at .500 with Strasburg on the horizon was the most fun couple months of baseball fandom in my entire life.

2011 was great. 2012 was also great. And then 2013 through 2018 were fun. Frustrating. Then the second half of last 2019 was so fun, even if I didn't think it would turn out all that well in the end.