Author Topic: 2021 Trade Discussions/Rumors/Deadline - buy or sell  (Read 2013 times)

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Offline Smithian

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Bell can be non-tendered, so he's not on this roster next year unless  we find a reason to want him.  Technically, Schwarber has an option, too (I forget if it's mutual and he could decline). 

Slate - I saw you list the Red Sox as a Scherzer seeker.  Were you saying Casas would be enough in your mind?  Are you nervous about contact skills? 
Nationals will most likely be trash next season. Barring a trade for a 1B prospect, I want them to bring Bell back. Guy has talent. Never know. Maybe he gets hot and some team will toss us a low minor prospect for a half season before he hits FA.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Because Bell cost nothing and prior to 2020, he was a .831 OPS bat
Actually he did cost something. They could have used the money to get someone who can actually hit.  Jose Marmelejos would be better.

Bell was mediocre and then had a big 2019. And then he fell off.  Did no one scout him in 2020?  This is why front offices get paid. Signing Thames last year and now Bell this year we’re just terrible moves.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Nationals will most likely be trash next season. Barring a trade for a 1B prospect, I want them to bring Bell back. Guy has talent. Never know. Maybe he gets hot and some team will toss us a low minor prospect for a half season before he hits FA.
He has a big loopy swing that cannot catch up to the fastballs guys are throwing now. Combined with a lack of recognition on breaking pitches. He is perfect if you want to tank.

Offline Smithian

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This thread is making me hopeful that Scherzer keeps up good work and that the Cardinals, Blue Jays, and Red Sox get in a bidding war.

But then I lower my expectations and remember it'll end up being a decent, fringe Top 100 prospect, a couple Low-A fliers, and the Nationals tossing in some money.

Offline Slateman

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Actually he did cost something. They could have used the money to get someone who can actually hit.  Jose Marmelejos would be better.

Bell was mediocre and then had a big 2019. And then he fell off.  Did no one scout him in 2020?  This is why front offices get paid. Signing Thames last year and now Bell this year we’re just terrible moves.

You mean the guy hitting .139/.266/.278?

Offline UMDNats

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I'd probably bring Bell back next year to see if he can get hot for a few months and flip him again. We're in a rebuild.

Offline Natsinpwc

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You mean the guy hitting .139/.266/.278?
Probably a bad comp.  but not by that much.  And at least you would be paying less and could have signed a 3B.  Darin Ruf would have been nice at about $1 million. 

Offline Slateman

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Probably a bad comp.  but not by that much.  And at least you would be paying less and could have signed a 3B.  Darin Ruf would have been nice at about $1 million. 
Who exactly did trading for Bell and his 6 million dollar salary prevent them from signing?

Offline Smithian

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I'd probably bring Bell back next year to see if he can get hot for a few months and flip him again. We're in a rebuild.
Josh Bell will be 33 years old and floating around the waiver wires to struggling teams needing a PH and I'll still be holding onto my Josh Bell stock.

Offline Slateman

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Bell can be non-tendered, so he's not on this roster next year unless  we find a reason to want him.  Technically, Schwarber has an option, too (I forget if it's mutual and he could decline). 

Slate - I saw you list the Red Sox as a Scherzer seeker.  Were you saying Casas would be enough in your mind?  Are you nervous about contact skills? 

Casas is enough to me. His hit tool is fairly advanced. It also gives us an option after Bell departs next season.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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The question at this point isn't really if you trade Scherzer (assuming he's willing), but when.  The team is seven games under .500.  They're under .500 at home and on the road and they're under .500 in every month so far.  They're in last place.  They are exactly where their run differential and other stats would suggest they would be.   

In my mind, you wait until early July.  If Strasburg and Corbin aren't both healthy and pitching well by then, you trade Scherzer ASAP, because the team can't get back into things without those two.  The longer you wait, the less you get for Scherzer.  At that point, you also trade anyone else whose contract is up this year who has any value at all: depending on production, that could include Hand, Schwarber (his 2022 option is mutual, so it's basically a nullity), Hudson, Castro, and Gomes.  Some of those guys won't be traded due to suckitude: Castro, as of this moment.  Most won't fetch much, but hey, the lack of good players is why this team lacks good results.

And then you hit the painful part.  If Strasburg and Corbin are still useless in July, you have to ask the question of whether they will continue to be useless long-term.  They're owed a combined $187 million over the next three years.  Strasburg's exposure continues after that.  At present, they are both untradeable.  They will take up almost 1/3 of the payroll over the next three years. 

Where I'm going here is the question of whether you also consider trading Turner especially, and also even Soto.  My position would be yes on Turner.  There is no reasonable prospect of this team being more than ok-ish next year even with Turner unless Scherzer or an equivalently productive player come back on an equivalent salary.   Turner is making $13 million this year and will probably make around $20 million in his final arbitration year.  He would get a lot more on the open market, so he has a lot of trade value.  (Soto is a no for me just because of what it would admit: that the team is going to be very bad for four years.  But it's close.  The Strasburg and Corbin contracts are THAT bad.)   

And the farm system is terrible.  It's not just the worst in baseball; it's not particularly close to being not the worst in baseball.  Besides Garcia and Kieboom (with all the bust risk there, he's still a reasonable prospect due to age), there is absolutely nothing above high-A that looks like a high-probability of being a major league player, let alone a good one.   And even lower down, it's mostly lottery tickets as the only decent prospects who are even above academy/rookie ball are pitchers - and yes, spare me the Yasel Antuna bullcrap.   

So you're either spending a ton of money on the major league level to fill holes you can't do internally, or you're trading guys like Turner so you don't need to do things like spend a combined $24.5 million to have a functional back end of bullpen and $13.5 million on replacement-level players at 1B and 3B.  That's $38 million out the door on players that would take a team with a decent farm system maybe $18 million given staggered seniority.   You gotta pay the bill eventually.


Offline Slateman

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No, the question is if. The Lerners have meddled in trades before. They are probably delusional enough to think they can re-sign him.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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No, the question is if. The Lerners have meddled in trades before. They are probably delusional enough to think they can re-sign him.

I was aiming for a rational world.  If the Lerners won't allow Rizzo to trade Scherzer, he should probably resign.

Offline Count Walewski

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The Lerners notably did not allow Harper to be dealt at the deadline in 2018, though the Nationals were not anywhere near this bad.

Offline Five Banners

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The Lerners notably did not allow Harper to be dealt at the deadline in 2018, though the Nationals were not anywhere near this bad.

Also with a player a decade younger than Max who figured to fit into long-term plans if re-signed, also after years of making efforts not to sully things with Boras.

Offline Slateman

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The Lerners notably did not allow Harper to be dealt at the deadline in 2018, though the Nationals were not anywhere near this bad.
It didnt matter how bad they were. They claimed they wanted to re-sign him, and then proceeded to lowball him.

I can totally see the Lerners thinking that Max retiring with the Nats means he goes into the Hall with a :w: And to that end, thats more important than anything he would bring back in trade.

Offline UMDNats

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Do the Lerners value a Nat in the HOF more than they value paying him another $75-80 million over 3 more years? I would think they'd jump at the chance to cut salary across the board and give Rizzo the green light to quickly rebuild around Soto (we can't, but they'll tell us we can).

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Elvir - curious - would you wrap up Trea in a package to dump one of the really bad contracts? It substantially lessens the return to Runelvys level, but it generates a lot of space to restructure the roster to reflect the going rate for pitchers etc...

Offline Slateman

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Do the Lerners value a Nat in the HOF more than they value paying him another $75-80 million over 3 more years? I would think they'd jump at the chance to cut salary across the board and give Rizzo the green light to quickly rebuild around Soto (we can't, but they'll tell us we can).
Until proven otherwise, I will assume the Lerners will make decisions based on what makes them more money. And Scherzer retiring as a Nat into the HoF will bring them lots of acclaim and prestige. Which they will turn into money.

Offline Five Banners

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curious - would you wrap up Trea in a package to dump one of the really bad contracts? It substantially lessens the return to Runelvys level, but it generates a lot of space to restructure the roster to reflect the going rate for pitchers etc...

 If Rizzo is not given the flexibility before the trade deadline to pursue and finalize a long-term deal before it (or if Turner’s side isn’t up for that), it figures to be worth exploring — and of course cleared with the redoubtable ownership committee or whatever construct currently prevails.  Of course, the more wholesale changes to the core, the fewer ties that Soto will have with his early successful days here, which might have its own effect on his long-term attachment and potential future commitment. 

 I’ve always felt this team has needed a Lucchino type presence, but of course the same could’ve been said for just about every local team whose ownership can appear to get estranged from reality and doesn’t always seem to have someone there empowered to bring the big picture with sufficient authority.

Offline Slateman

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Elvir - curious - would you wrap up Trea in a package to dump one of the really bad contracts? It substantially lessens the return to Runelvys level, but it generates a lot of space to restructure the roster to reflect the going rate for pitchers etc...
Unless that contract is Strasburg, no.

I still think the Turner trade happens in the offseason.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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I’ve always felt this team has needed a Lucchino type presence, but of course the same could’ve been said for just about every local team whose ownership can appear to get estranged from reality and doesn’t always seem to have someone there empowered to bring the big picture with sufficient authority.
Well, that was supposedly Kasten.  Somehow, I think Rizzo has less autonomy than Kasten, or else Kasten had such simple instructions (don't spend much and don't chase significant veterans because we are tanking) that he could do what he pleased.  Kasten never had to propose something the Lerners would say no to.

Offline Slateman

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Well, that was supposedly Kasten.  Somehow, I think Rizzo has less autonomy than Kasten, or else Kasten had such simple instructions (don't spend much and don't chase significant veterans because we are tanking) that he could do what he pleased.  Kasten never had to propose something the Lerners would say no to.
What about Alfonso Soriano?

Offline UMDNats

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Until proven otherwise, I will assume the Lerners will make decisions based on what makes them more money. And Scherzer retiring as a Nat into the HoF will bring them lots of acclaim and prestige. Which they will turn into money.

i think it's still very possible he goes in as a nat if he is dealt. it's either detroit or DC

Offline Slateman

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i think it's still very possible he goes in as a nat if he is dealt. it's either detroit or DC
I agree. But I wanted to deal him last season