Author Topic: So just how lucky was 2019? (Read 3258 times)

bluestreak · « **Reply #50:** May 16, 2021, 01:13:07 AM »

Quote from: Duke of Earl on May 16, 2021, 12:39:51 AM

i can think of a few. ..... 61 Yankees ...

That team had to win one series. Teams now have to win 3

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #51:** May 16, 2021, 09:05:14 AM »

Having Max miss game five was a stroke of luck. Also the Turner runner interference call. And certainly not having to face a team that cheats in the World Series. All major strokes of luck.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #52:** May 16, 2021, 09:21:35 AM »

Look at the best record regular season Series winners. I'd start with the Jeter teams like the one that beat the Mets. Look at teams that more or less rolled everyone. I would drop the 2007 red Sox because they had a tough ALCS, but maybe either of the Mookie teams (Sox 18 or Dodgers).

Slateman · « **Reply #53:** May 16, 2021, 09:30:01 AM »

Quote from: bluestreak on May 15, 2021, 08:29:38 PM

It was his only ring. He actually cost the tigers one I think.

Lol, the Cards won the series 4-1 against thr Tigers. Pretty Verlander giving up 9 runs in 11 innings did more to lose them that series

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #54:** October 06, 2021, 10:35:20 AM »

https://www.mlb.com/news/biggest-upsets-in-mlb-postseason-history?partnerId=zh-20211006-480569-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20211006-480569-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=sGa%2FKpRRml%2BBEAawx8UFkLfEYRQ9pobm5qyailSWgrDcaxAm4cRy8He%2BYhEaG%2FDV&bt_ts=1633523920429

A bit of a thread resuscitation here, but this list of the 10 biggest post-season upsets based on regular season win percentage difference has a couple of Nats 2019 appearances on it: #5 and #10 (World Series and NLDS).

Quote

5) 2019 World Series: Nationals (.574) defeat Astros (.660) -- 86-point difference
The Nationals had started out 19-31 in the regular season, then went on a run for the ages that included comebacks in the one-and-done Wild Card Game and in the Game 5 NLDS clincher against the Dodgers. They were up 2-0 in this Series, only to drop all three games at home, only to win Games 6 and 7 in Houston, thereby capping the first World Series in history in which the road team won every game. Howie Kendrick’s game-changing homer off the foul pole in Game 7 sent the Nationals to their franchise-first championship and Washington's first since the 1924 Senators.
...
10) 2019 NLDS: Nationals (.574) defeat Dodgers (.654) -- 80-point difference
The ’19 Nats are the only team to crack this list twice, and, as was the case in the World Series, they did it the hard way, going the distance against a juggernaut. The Dodgers were coming off their highest win total (106) in franchise history, and -- unlike the Nats, who had to get past the Brewers in the Wild Card Game -- they were rested. L.A. took a 2-1 lead in the best-of-five, but Max Scherzer’s Game 4 performance forced a grand finale. And in Game 5, back-to-back homers from Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto off Clayton Kershaw tied it in the eighth, and Kendrick’s glorious grand slam off Joe Kelly in the 10th made Washington a winner.

I guess the win % wasn't indicative of the team in the playoffs because of deadline deals. After the first 50 games, they matched pace with the tops of the NL, so it did not seem as bad as the difference in win %. TBH, probably the most improbable thing was Grisham messing up Soto's hit. To me, that might be more improbable than getting to Hader at all because they had hit him before and because Soto.

varoadking · « **Reply #55:** October 06, 2021, 11:29:38 AM »

Two things stood out for me:

Quote

5) 2019 World Series: Nationals (.574) defeat Astros (.660) -- 86-point difference
The Nationals had started out 19-31 in the regular season, then went on a run for the ages that included comebacks in the one-and-done Wild Card Game and in the Game 5 NLDS clincher against the Dodgers. They were up 2-0 in this Series, only to drop all three games at home, only to win Games 6 and 7 in Houston, thereby capping the first World Series in history in which the road team won every game. Howie Kendrick’s game-changing homer off the foul pole in Game 7 sent the Nationals to their franchise-first championship and Washington's first since the 1924 Senators.
...
10) 2019 NLDS: Nationals (.574) defeat Dodgers (.654) -- 80-point difference
The ’19 Nats are the only team to crack this list twice, and, as was the case in the World Series, they did it the hard way, going the distance against a juggernaut. The Dodgers were coming off their highest win total (106) in franchise history, and -- unlike the Nats, who had to get past the Brewers in the Wild Card Game -- they were rested. L.A. took a 2-1 lead in the best-of-five, but Max Scherzer’s Game 4 performance forced a grand finale. And in Game 5, back-to-back homers from Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto off Clayton Kershaw tied it in the eighth, and Kendrick’s glorious grand slam off Joe Kelly in the 10th made Washington a winner.

Ali the Baseball Cat · « **Reply #56:** October 06, 2021, 11:33:51 AM »

I suppose none of which would have mattered without going 8-0 to end the regular season.

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on October 06, 2021, 10:35:20 AM

https://www.mlb.com/news/biggest-upsets-in-mlb-postseason-history?partnerId=zh-20211006-480569-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20211006-480569-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=sGa%2FKpRRml%2BBEAawx8UFkLfEYRQ9pobm5qyailSWgrDcaxAm4cRy8He%2BYhEaG%2FDV&bt_ts=1633523920429

A bit of a thread resuscitation here, but this list of the 10 biggest post-season upsets based on regular season win percentage difference has a couple of Nats 2019 appearances on it: #5 and #10 (World Series and NLDS).
I guess the win % wasn't indicative of the team in the playoffs because of deadline deals. After the first 50 games, they matched pace with the tops of the NL, so it did not seem as bad as the difference in win %. TBH, probably the most improbable thing was Grisham messing up Soto's hit. To me, that might be more improbable than getting to Hader at all because they had hit him before and because Soto.

English Natsie · « **Reply #57:** October 06, 2021, 02:27:11 PM »

I've always thought that 2019 displayed a phenomenom common to all sports - there is 'one-of-those-years' where everyone can just sense that a particular teams name is on the trophy, whatever that team may appear to do.

imref · « **Reply #58:** October 06, 2021, 02:33:38 PM »

Quote from: English Natsie on October 06, 2021, 02:27:11 PM

I've always thought that 2019 displayed a phenomenom common to all sports - there is 'one-of-those-years' where everyone can just sense that a particular teams name is on the trophy, whatever that team may appear to do.

i thought that was us in 2012.

Five Banners · « **Reply #59:** October 06, 2021, 03:57:19 PM »

Quote from: varoadking on October 06, 2021, 11:29:38 AM

Two things stood out for me:

Kendrick is the only player ever to have multiple go-ahead homers in the seventh inning or later of winner-take-all games in a single postseason. That one was a grand slam and one was in World Series Game Seven (and both on the road) remains outstanding.

bluestreak · « **Reply #60:** October 06, 2021, 04:07:24 PM »

If we want to do more Howie reminiscing…

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/howie-kendricks-game-7-homer-shouldnt-be-overlooked-neither-should-his-potential-for-the-2020-nationals/

Quote

[…]Kendrick's homer off Harris -- the first opposite field homer allowed by Harris since 2017 -- was the seventh-biggest play in MLB history. Trim the list down to home runs for teams that went on to win the World Series, and only Hal Smith's clout in the 1960 World Series has a higher cWPA.

nfotiu · « **Reply #61:** October 06, 2021, 04:09:54 PM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on October 06, 2021, 10:35:20 AM

https://www.mlb.com/news/biggest-upsets-in-mlb-postseason-history?partnerId=zh-20211006-480569-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20211006-480569-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=sGa%2FKpRRml%2BBEAawx8UFkLfEYRQ9pobm5qyailSWgrDcaxAm4cRy8He%2BYhEaG%2FDV&bt_ts=1633523920429

A bit of a thread resuscitation here, but this list of the 10 biggest post-season upsets based on regular season win percentage difference has a couple of Nats 2019 appearances on it: #5 and #10 (World Series and NLDS).
I guess the win % wasn't indicative of the team in the playoffs because of deadline deals. After the first 50 games, they matched pace with the tops of the NL, so it did not seem as bad as the difference in win %. TBH, probably the most improbable thing was Grisham messing up Soto's hit. To me, that might be more improbable than getting to Hader at all because they had hit him before and because Soto.

If he made the play, that would have just set up Howie to hit another big home run with the game tied, runners on 1st and 3rd facing a reeling Hader who was at 30 pitches.

varoadking · « **Reply #62:** October 06, 2021, 05:14:41 PM »

Quote from: bluestreak on October 06, 2021, 04:07:24 PM

If we want to do more Howie reminiscing…

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/howie-kendricks-game-7-homer-shouldnt-be-overlooked-neither-should-his-potential-for-the-2020-nationals/

I miss him...owner of the two biggest hits in franchise history, IMHO...and a heckuva nice guy to boot...

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #63:** October 06, 2021, 05:23:03 PM »

Quote from: varoadking on October 06, 2021, 05:14:41 PM

I miss him...owner of the two biggest hits in franchise history, IMHO...and a heckuva nice guy to boot...

Mega Man Crush.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #64:** October 06, 2021, 05:24:22 PM »

The answer is it was as lucky as it had to be. Most teams have some luck here and there in a championship run.

varoadking · « **Reply #65:** October 06, 2021, 05:42:24 PM »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on October 06, 2021, 05:23:03 PM

Mega Man Crush.

Him and Ovi...

welch · « **Reply #66:** October 06, 2021, 06:05:50 PM »

The Nats could have won in any year from 2012 onward. Bad luck that they did not in, say, Dusty's seasons. Especially 2016, when Daniel Murphy's knee was healthy.

imref · « **Reply #67:** October 06, 2021, 08:18:42 PM »

Quote from: welch on October 06, 2021, 06:05:50 PM

The Nats could have won in any year from 2012 onward. Bad luck that they did not in, say, Dusty's seasons. Especially 2016, when Daniel Murphy's knee was healthy.

That was arguably the best team we ever fielded

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #68:** October 09, 2021, 11:46:01 AM »

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-kicking-off-the-playoffs-with-chelsea-janes/

Long discussion of 2019 by Chelsea Janes in this podcast, along with discussion of the trade deadline breakup.

zimm_da_kid · « **Reply #69:** October 16, 2021, 06:56:55 PM »

Listening to the jomboy podcast from after us winning the World Series. Good vibes only

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #70:** October 24, 2021, 04:22:14 PM »

https://www.mlb.com/news/biggest-upsets-in-mlb-postseason-history?partnerId=zh-20211024-490321-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20211024-490321-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=pn%2FQOZAqOJy8S%2FuNiGJxhZWLAwqpFbwqcNF0L1t0kz7O2v1C0V%2BU6xLhKPIb21nT&bt_ts=1635083316700

#6 by difference in winning %

welch · « **Reply #71:** October 24, 2021, 08:23:37 PM »

The 2019 Nats were not lucky at all. The 2021 Dodgers had depth everywhere and three ace starters but their pitching collapsed. The Nats were good, and Davey Martinez had a great plan for his pitchers. Dave Roberts, or Roberts and his crack "analytics" staff and his "game planner", didn't notice that our Davey started all his pitchers on full rest. Maybe Roberts failed to notice that Davey used Corbin as a long-reliever? Maybe Roberts thinks that Max, Buehler, and Urias are the same a relief pitchers because all of then -- starters and relievers -- throw a baseball?

KnorrForYourMoney · « **Reply #72:** October 24, 2021, 08:50:59 PM »

Quote from: imref on October 06, 2021, 08:18:42 PM

That was arguably the best team we ever fielded

I'm partial to the 2017 team. I have no doubt they could have, and probably would have, won the NL if Rusty had the good sense to bench Werth (or if Corbin had just replaced choke artist Gio just a couple years sooner). The 2016 was great, but too many regular hitters had down years and performed much better in 2017. Bullpen was way better in 2017, too.

Whether they would have won the World Series or not...I guess that would have depended on if/when they had caught onto the Trashtros' operation.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #73:** October 25, 2021, 09:18:32 AM »

My team I think was 2014. Very hot 2nd half. Peak Zimmermann and healthy Strasburg, great year from Roark, plus Fister. Very balanced line up with offense from all over. Breakout from Rendon, good years from Werth and Desmond, healthy Span, good Ramos, good LaRoche. Harper and RZ had injury issues, but even had the late addition of AsCab to help. We cringe at Storen in relief of JZ, but that was a good bullpen with Clippard and even Barrett, Stammen and Treinen in lower roles.

nfotiu · « **Reply #74:** October 25, 2021, 09:51:11 AM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on October 25, 2021, 09:18:32 AM

My team I think was 2014. Very hot 2nd half. Peak Zimmermann and healthy Strasburg, great year from Roark, plus Fister. Very balanced line up with offense from all over. Breakout from Rendon, good years from Werth and Desmond, healthy Span, good Ramos, good LaRoche. Harper and RZ had injury issues, but even had the late addition of AsCab to help. We cringe at Storen in relief of JZ, but that was a good bullpen with Clippard and even Barrett, Stammen and Treinen in lower roles.

I do think 2019 is the healthiest team we had in terms of no key injuries and no key guys just coming off injuries and not really 100% like we seemed to have every other year. A lot of that is definitely luck, but the manager has some influence on being able to have everyone healthy and in top form going into the post season.