Author Topic: So just how lucky was 2019?  (Read 839 times)

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Online bluestreak

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #50: May 16, 2021, 01:13:07 AM »
i can think of a few. ..... 61 Yankees ...

That team had to win one series. Teams now have to win 3

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #51: May 16, 2021, 09:05:14 AM »
Having Max miss game five was a stroke of luck. Also the Turner runner interference call. And certainly not having to face a team that cheats in the World Series. All major strokes of luck.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #52: May 16, 2021, 09:21:35 AM »
Look at the best record regular season Series winners. I'd start with the Jeter teams like the one that beat the Mets. Look at teams that more or less rolled everyone.  I would drop the 2007 red Sox because they had a tough ALCS, but maybe either of the Mookie teams (Sox 18 or Dodgers).

Offline Slateman

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #53: May 16, 2021, 09:30:01 AM »
It was his only ring. He actually cost the tigers one I think.
Lol, the Cards won the series 4-1 against thr Tigers. Pretty Verlander giving up 9 runs in 11 innings did more to lose them that series

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #54: October 06, 2021, 10:35:20 AM »
https://www.mlb.com/news/biggest-upsets-in-mlb-postseason-history?partnerId=zh-20211006-480569-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20211006-480569-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=sGa%2FKpRRml%2BBEAawx8UFkLfEYRQ9pobm5qyailSWgrDcaxAm4cRy8He%2BYhEaG%2FDV&bt_ts=1633523920429

A bit of a thread resuscitation here, but this list of the 10 biggest post-season upsets based on regular season win percentage difference has a couple of Nats 2019 appearances on it: #5 and #10 (World Series and NLDS).
Quote
5) 2019 World Series: Nationals (.574) defeat Astros (.660) -- 86-point difference
The Nationals had started out 19-31 in the regular season, then went on a run for the ages that included comebacks in the one-and-done Wild Card Game and in the Game 5 NLDS clincher against the Dodgers. They were up 2-0 in this Series, only to drop all three games at home, only to win Games 6 and 7 in Houston, thereby capping the first World Series in history in which the road team won every game. Howie Kendrick’s game-changing homer off the foul pole in Game 7 sent the Nationals to their franchise-first championship and Washington's first since the 1924 Senators.
...
10) 2019 NLDS: Nationals (.574) defeat Dodgers (.654) -- 80-point difference
The ’19 Nats are the only team to crack this list twice, and, as was the case in the World Series, they did it the hard way, going the distance against a juggernaut. The Dodgers were coming off their highest win total (106) in franchise history, and -- unlike the Nats, who had to get past the Brewers in the Wild Card Game -- they were rested. L.A. took a 2-1 lead in the best-of-five, but Max Scherzer’s Game 4 performance forced a grand finale. And in Game 5, back-to-back homers from Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto off Clayton Kershaw tied it in the eighth, and Kendrick’s glorious grand slam off Joe Kelly in the 10th made Washington a winner.

I guess the win % wasn't indicative of the team in the playoffs because of deadline deals.  After the first 50 games, they matched pace with the tops of the NL, so it did not seem as bad as the difference in win %.  TBH, probably the most improbable thing was Grisham messing up Soto's hit.  To me, that might be more improbable than getting to Hader at all because they had hit him before and because Soto.


Offline varoadking

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #55: October 06, 2021, 11:29:38 AM »
Two things stood out for me:

Quote
5) 2019 World Series: Nationals (.574) defeat Astros (.660) -- 86-point difference
The Nationals had started out 19-31 in the regular season, then went on a run for the ages that included comebacks in the one-and-done Wild Card Game and in the Game 5 NLDS clincher against the Dodgers. They were up 2-0 in this Series, only to drop all three games at home, only to win Games 6 and 7 in Houston, thereby capping the first World Series in history in which the road team won every game. Howie Kendrick’s game-changing homer off the foul pole in Game 7 sent the Nationals to their franchise-first championship and Washington's first since the 1924 Senators.
...
10) 2019 NLDS: Nationals (.574) defeat Dodgers (.654) -- 80-point difference
The ’19 Nats are the only team to crack this list twice, and, as was the case in the World Series, they did it the hard way, going the distance against a juggernaut. The Dodgers were coming off their highest win total (106) in franchise history, and -- unlike the Nats, who had to get past the Brewers in the Wild Card Game -- they were rested. L.A. took a 2-1 lead in the best-of-five, but Max Scherzer’s Game 4 performance forced a grand finale. And in Game 5, back-to-back homers from Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto off Clayton Kershaw tied it in the eighth, and Kendrick’s glorious grand slam off Joe Kelly in the 10th made Washington a winner.

Online Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #56: October 06, 2021, 11:33:51 AM »
I suppose none of which would have mattered without going 8-0 to end the regular season.     
https://www.mlb.com/news/biggest-upsets-in-mlb-postseason-history?partnerId=zh-20211006-480569-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20211006-480569-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=sGa%2FKpRRml%2BBEAawx8UFkLfEYRQ9pobm5qyailSWgrDcaxAm4cRy8He%2BYhEaG%2FDV&bt_ts=1633523920429

A bit of a thread resuscitation here, but this list of the 10 biggest post-season upsets based on regular season win percentage difference has a couple of Nats 2019 appearances on it: #5 and #10 (World Series and NLDS).
I guess the win % wasn't indicative of the team in the playoffs because of deadline deals.  After the first 50 games, they matched pace with the tops of the NL, so it did not seem as bad as the difference in win %.  TBH, probably the most improbable thing was Grisham messing up Soto's hit.  To me, that might be more improbable than getting to Hader at all because they had hit him before and because Soto.



Offline English Natsie

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #57: October 06, 2021, 02:27:11 PM »
I've always thought that 2019 displayed a phenomenom common to all sports - there is 'one-of-those-years' where everyone can just sense that a particular teams name is on the trophy, whatever that team may appear to do.

Offline imref

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #58: October 06, 2021, 02:33:38 PM »
I've always thought that 2019 displayed a phenomenom common to all sports - there is 'one-of-those-years' where everyone can just sense that a particular teams name is on the trophy, whatever that team may appear to do.

i thought that was us in 2012.

Offline Five Banners

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #59: October 06, 2021, 03:57:19 PM »
Two things stood out for me:

Kendrick is the only player ever to have multiple go-ahead homers in the seventh inning or later of winner-take-all games in a single postseason. That one was a grand slam and one was in World Series Game Seven (and both on the road) remains outstanding.


Online bluestreak

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #60: October 06, 2021, 04:07:24 PM »
If we want to do more Howie reminiscing…

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/howie-kendricks-game-7-homer-shouldnt-be-overlooked-neither-should-his-potential-for-the-2020-nationals/

Quote
[…]Kendrick's homer off Harris -- the first opposite field homer allowed by Harris since 2017 -- was the seventh-biggest play in MLB history. Trim the list down to home runs for teams that went on to win the World Series, and only Hal Smith's clout in the 1960 World Series has a higher cWPA.

Online nfotiu

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #61: October 06, 2021, 04:09:54 PM »
https://www.mlb.com/news/biggest-upsets-in-mlb-postseason-history?partnerId=zh-20211006-480569-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20211006-480569-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=sGa%2FKpRRml%2BBEAawx8UFkLfEYRQ9pobm5qyailSWgrDcaxAm4cRy8He%2BYhEaG%2FDV&bt_ts=1633523920429

A bit of a thread resuscitation here, but this list of the 10 biggest post-season upsets based on regular season win percentage difference has a couple of Nats 2019 appearances on it: #5 and #10 (World Series and NLDS).
I guess the win % wasn't indicative of the team in the playoffs because of deadline deals.  After the first 50 games, they matched pace with the tops of the NL, so it did not seem as bad as the difference in win %.  TBH, probably the most improbable thing was Grisham messing up Soto's hit.  To me, that might be more improbable than getting to Hader at all because they had hit him before and because Soto.


If he made the play, that would have just set up Howie to hit another big home run with the game tied, runners on 1st and 3rd facing a reeling Hader who was at 30 pitches.

Offline varoadking

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #62: October 06, 2021, 05:14:41 PM »
If we want to do more Howie reminiscing…

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/howie-kendricks-game-7-homer-shouldnt-be-overlooked-neither-should-his-potential-for-the-2020-nationals/

I miss him...owner of the two biggest hits in franchise history, IMHO...and a heckuva nice guy to boot...

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #63: October 06, 2021, 05:23:03 PM »
I miss him...owner of the two biggest hits in franchise history, IMHO...and a heckuva nice guy to boot...
Mega Man Crush. 

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #64: October 06, 2021, 05:24:22 PM »
The answer is it was as lucky as it had to be. Most teams have some luck here and there in a championship run.

Offline varoadking

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #65: October 06, 2021, 05:42:24 PM »

Offline welch

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #66: October 06, 2021, 06:05:50 PM »
The Nats could have won in any year from 2012 onward. Bad luck that they did not in, say, Dusty's seasons. Especially 2016, when Daniel Murphy's knee was healthy.

Offline imref

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #67: October 06, 2021, 08:18:42 PM »
The Nats could have won in any year from 2012 onward. Bad luck that they did not in, say, Dusty's seasons. Especially 2016, when Daniel Murphy's knee was healthy.

That was arguably the best team we ever fielded

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #68: October 09, 2021, 11:46:01 AM »
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-kicking-off-the-playoffs-with-chelsea-janes/

Long discussion of 2019 by Chelsea Janes in this podcast, along with discussion of the trade deadline breakup.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #69: October 16, 2021, 06:56:55 PM »
Listening to the jomboy podcast from after us winning the World Series.  Good vibes only