Author Topic: So just how lucky was 2019?  (Read 822 times)

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Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #25: May 13, 2021, 12:51:11 PM »
Stevenson had pinch run for Zim and was on 2nd. I feel pretty confident he would have scored. He was beyond 3rd before the ball bounced past Grisham. Would Kendrick have gotten a bit behind him to drive in Rendon after that? Well, it was 2019, so he very well may have. But again, we'll never know and I'm just fine with that!

The dodgers were made to get schlonged

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #26: May 13, 2021, 01:18:07 PM »
However you want to characterize it, they got some very fortunate, unusual things go in their favor at pretty much every stage along the way.
And in previous years they had some very unfortunate and unusual things go against them. Evens out over time.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #27: May 13, 2021, 03:03:57 PM »
The 2019 post-season was less lucky than making the playoffs after 19-31.  Eaton, Cabrera, healthy Strasburg, Hudson finding it and being available, Robles's soft contact balanced out by BABIP luck, Kendrick staying healthy and even just him deciding to play after his injury the year before, finding a way to get by with old catchers.  Those are all long shots for the regular season, but once they got to the playoffs, those guys and a healthy Zim were formidable. Also, the ability to use starters in relief allowed them to more or less not give meaningful appearances to any relievers other than Hudson and Doo.

Offline sixthree175

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #28: May 14, 2021, 04:58:37 AM »
The 2019 post-season was less lucky than making the playoffs after 19-31.  Eaton, Cabrera, healthy Strasburg, Hudson finding it and being available, Robles's soft contact balanced out by BABIP luck, Kendrick staying healthy and even just him deciding to play after his injury the year before, finding a way to get by with old catchers.  Those are all long shots for the regular season, but once they got to the playoffs, those guys and a healthy Zim were formidable. Also, the ability to use starters in relief allowed them to more or less not give meaningful appearances to any relievers other than Hudson and Doo.
For me (growing up in Long Island) 2019 was a twice-in-a-lifetime experience:
1. 1969 New York Mets.
2. 2019 Washington Nationals (a close second).
---------------------------------------------------
3. 1986 New York Mets (a distant third).

Offline Slateman

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #29: May 14, 2021, 06:18:20 AM »
If you're going to claim 2019 was luck, then you have to retroactively apply bad luck to 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2017.


I definitely agree there was some bad luck. But not nearly as much bad luck as good luck in 2019.

2016 and 2017 was simply bad managing

Offline rileyn

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #30: May 14, 2021, 08:30:59 AM »
Luck, Schmuck.  What difference does it make?  2012, if the ump calls 2 borderline pitches strikes against St. Louis, Storen strikes out Molina and we win the series.  Maybe Storen's career and the arc of the franchise changes dramatically if that happens.  Maybe we go on a San Fran-like run for the next 8 years.   The only other what-if was game 5 of the Cubs series, when that crazy strike out, passed ball thing happened.  If that was called correctly, who knows?

I would say the only real luck we got in 2019 playoffs was the 8th inning of the WC game.  MAT getting nicked by a pitch, Zimm with a broken bat hit, and then Soto's hit taking a sideways bounce.   

Offline nfotiu

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #31: May 14, 2021, 09:05:54 AM »
On May 28, they had a 0.1% chance of winning the WS.

If Trent Grisham fields the Soto hit in RF, we probably lose that game. Grisham is one of the best OF defenders in baseball and the ONLY reason he was there was because of  fluke inury to Yelich.

Then there was the Dodgers series. If MLB hadnt made too few baseballs, Will Smith's long fly ball is a walk off. If Dave Roberts doesnt have a stupid moment and leave Kershaw in, we lose. If Kershaw doesnt have a fluke of giving up back to back homers, we lose.

And then we get to the WS where we won every road game. Which had never happened.


Those of you holding on to 2019 as some sort of repeatable event need to grasp how unique and unrepeatable that was. There was a freak ton of luck. I mean, just the luck of having a healthy Strasburg alone is amazing. Then you add everything else. You cannot count on history repeating. Stop pretending like 2019 was some normal thing. It wasnt. It was historic. It was once in a lifetime type history. Revel in it. Enjoy it. Relive it. But stop pretending like the Nats can just flip it in whenever they want.
You spent the whole 2019 season saying it was impossible for this team to do anything, and they were dumb for not selling, and that fans are suckers for thinking they had a chance to do anything.   They won a World Series because they built a team good enough to make the playoffs for 5 of 8 years and had one of the top playoff rotations healthy.   That last part is the tough part for any team.  Look at how much fun the Dodgers, Braves and Mets have keeping their top starting pitchers on the field.   


Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #32: May 14, 2021, 09:25:37 AM »
You spent the whole 2019 season saying it was impossible for this team to do anything, and they were dumb for not selling, and that fans are suckers for thinking they had a chance to do anything.   They won a World Series because they built a team good enough to make the playoffs for 5 of 8 years and had one of the top playoff rotations healthy.   That last part is the tough part for any team.  Look at how much fun the Dodgers, Braves and Mets have keeping their top starting pitchers on the field.
You've gone down the rabbit hole.  They won in 2019 because they played better.  Doesn't matter if it was skill or luck or divine intervention. 

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #33: May 14, 2021, 10:21:45 AM »
Every team that wins a championship has some random good luck along the way. It's impossible not to.

After attending Game 5 in 2012 and then watching the Nationals come into every year 2013 - 2018 as preseason favorites to win the World Series, I was more than happy to take some dumb luck in 2019.

Offline imref

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #34: May 14, 2021, 10:34:53 AM »
Every team that wins a championship has some random good luck along the way. It's impossible not to.

After attending Game 5 in 2012 and then watching the Nationals come into every year 2013 - 2018 as preseason favorites to win the World Series, I was more than happy to take some dumb luck in 2019.

Wasn't it Strasburg who said "why can't this be our year?"

Baseball playoffs are a crapshoot, all a good GM can do is build a team capable of getting to the playoffs, and all a good manager can do is hope that they make the right moves and that the moves they do make don't blow up in their face.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #35: May 14, 2021, 07:46:12 PM »
A miracle out of nowhere in 2019.


Offline Slateman

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #36: May 14, 2021, 08:02:42 PM »
Every team that wins a championship has some random good luck along the way. It's impossible not to.

After attending Game 5 in 2012 and then watching the Nationals come into every year 2013 - 2018 as preseason favorites to win the World Series, I was more than happy to take some dumb luck in 2019.
I dont think anyone is saying they didnt enjoy it. All I'm saying is that it isnt something you can rely on. That run was insane. If you replayed that season 10,000 times, the Nats dont win the WS.

Rizzo and the Nats certainly can't continue to play like this and think they can just flip a switch

Offline welch

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #37: May 14, 2021, 08:37:33 PM »
We all know about 1924. Was it luck that Hank Gowdy stepped on his mask? Or luck that Walter Johnson came in with no rest to pitch four scoreless relief innings? Or does that even out the bad luck in 1925 that Johnson pitched with a pulled hamstring?

The 2012 - 2019 Nats had strong teams. Any of them could have won it all. Even 2018: think of an outfield with Harper, and Soto, and infield with Rendon and Turner and Murphy. Even 2015, when the Nats had Strasburg, Scherzer, Zimmermann, Fister, and Gio.

Offline hohoho

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #38: May 14, 2021, 08:44:03 PM »
I dont think anyone is saying they didnt enjoy it. All I'm saying is that it isnt something you can rely on. That run was insane. If you replayed that season 10,000 times, the Nats dont win the WS.

Rizzo and the Nats certainly can't continue to play like this and think they can just flip a switch
It is completely wrong to say that if they replayed 10,000 times. Look up the Sabre Pythagorean theorem and do the math. For example, based on runs scored and allowed, the Nats underperformed and the Braves overperformed. The Nats should have won the division by at least 3 games. Yes, there is always luck involved but...
The other NL div winners were LA and StL. Only LA had a better projection than the Nats.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #39: May 14, 2021, 10:12:33 PM »
The baseball playoffs are a random championship generator. You always need luck to win.

You make it enough and eventually the luck evens out.

They definitely tie the game on Soto’s hit in the Wild Card game. Two of the fastest players on the team were on second and third (Stevenson and Taylor) and they were running on contact because there were two outs. Zero chance they don’t score.

It seems disingenuous to discount the Nats wins because of bad managing on the other side, when the same people are saying we lost because of bad managing in previous years. It seems disingenuous to discount 2019 because of good luck when you take into account the 5th inning of game 5 in 2017 or Pete Kozma or any number of other plays.

I don’t think it’s repeatable. Doesn’t make it any less valid or impressive.

Offline Greg_SRT

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #40: May 15, 2021, 10:05:35 AM »
I don’t know how much of it was luck.

They had a very good rotation, a good lineup, and a terrible bullpen.

That bullpen got better but was never overall even average.

However the playoff schedule allowed the poor bullpen to not be as much a factor... and remember they used 3 of their SP’s in relief.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #41: May 15, 2021, 12:12:03 PM »
It's funny how well the SPs worked out as relievers in the 2019 post season.  I think 2 of the biggest clinching game disasters before that involved Edwin Jackson giving up a run in the 7th in Game 5 of the 2012 NLDS and Max's blow up in the 5th against the Cubs in game 5 of 2017.  What a truly bizarre game and inning that was.  Dusty was aggressive and creative, pulled Gio early when he looked like he was going to fritter away the lead, brought in Max to bridge to his better relievers, Max gets the first two outs, and then once he got into trouble, it blew up just one of the weirdest combination of ways to get on not involving a hit right in a row, compounded by rule book errors. 

Offline rileyn

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #42: May 15, 2021, 12:26:49 PM »
Corbin's 3 innings of relief in game 7 were massive.  He was outstanding.

Offline Jay

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #43: May 15, 2021, 08:22:46 PM »
If you can win a World Series with Fernando Rodney in your bullpen, something is going right for you.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #44: May 15, 2021, 08:26:16 PM »
If you can win a World Series with Fernando Rodney in your bullpen, something is going right for you.
I am curious - was that his only ring? I think so even though he was on a bunch of good teams. Rays I think in '08, Tigers in '11 and "13 ...

Edit - I got it backwards.  Detroit from 02-09, LAA in '10 & '11, then TB for 2years, then a few short stints

Offline bluestreak

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #45: May 15, 2021, 08:29:38 PM »
I am curious - was that his only ring? I think so even though he was on a bunch of good teams. Rays I think in '08, Tigers in '11 and "13 ...

It was his only ring. He actually cost the tigers one I think.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #46: May 15, 2021, 08:36:54 PM »
It was his only ring. He actually cost the tigers one I think.
I remember now the year he was my fantasy closer and he lost a tie breaker game vs. Minnesota. Had he pitched a clean inning, I would have won my league. He got in trouble and I fell behind on WHIP on an intentional walk.

Offline YadiSTAR aka Smithian

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #47: May 15, 2021, 09:49:40 PM »
However you want to characterize it, they got some very fortunate, unusual things go in their favor at pretty much every stage along the way.
What World Series team didn’t?

Offline bluestreak

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #48: May 16, 2021, 12:31:36 AM »
What World Series team didn’t?

Exactly

Offline Duke of Earl

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #49: May 16, 2021, 12:39:51 AM »
What World Series team didn’t?
i can think of a few. ..... 61 Yankees ...