Author Topic: So just how lucky was 2019?  (Read 840 times)

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Offline Slateman

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So just how lucky was 2019?
« Topic Start: May 12, 2021, 11:01:56 PM »
In this day and age, there are no dynasties in baseball.
Ok. But no team in history had as much muck as the Nationals in 2019.

Offline hohoho

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Re: Re: Nationals vs Phillies, Game 2
« Reply #1: May 12, 2021, 11:03:35 PM »
Ok. But no team in history had as much muck as the Nationals in 2019.
Prove it. Define luck. As in Astros?

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Re: Nationals vs Phillies, Game 2
« Reply #2: May 13, 2021, 08:53:29 AM »
Prove it. Define luck. As in Astros?
Came from 19-31.  That's a pretty rare season.  Guys like Cabrera and Eaton having their best seasons of their late career.  Hudson was a nice acquisition and was having a great year, but a meh career to that point. Oh, and he comes here in the nick of time as Doo breaks down.  Trent Grisham's error in the wild card game.  That's not quite an Ozzie Smith error, but the dude is an awesome defensive outfielder.  Last good year of Anibal Sanchez's career allowing you to pitch him in the playoffs.  Zim healthy.  That's a lot of good fortune.  Toss in beating two 100+ win teams in the LCS and World Series, and you have some pretty long odds.  I'm not sure they are a playoff team without a bunch of old guys playing well beyond expectations.  They did have a lot of top end talent (soto, turner, rendon, and 3 horses in the rotation in their prime), but the rest of  that lineup had almost no depth and relied on exceptional years from old guys.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #3: May 13, 2021, 08:58:18 AM »
The counter argument is, breaks even out and the Nats were overdue given 2012 Game 5, 2014 (JZ), and that freaky rally off Max in relief  featuring rule book mistakes (catcher's interference . . .).

Offline imref

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #4: May 13, 2021, 09:10:14 AM »
Aren’t the dodgers a dynasty at this point?

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #5: May 13, 2021, 09:18:36 AM »
Aren’t the dodgers a dynasty at this point?

Only in the same sense the 1990s Braves were or someone with four consecutive bronze medals and one gold is.  Dynasties win championships.  If the Bills had won one of those Super Bowls, would they be a dynasty?

Online nfotiu

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #6: May 13, 2021, 09:29:35 AM »
The counter argument is, breaks even out and the Nats were overdue given 2012 Game 5, 2014 (JZ), and that freaky rally off Max in relief  featuring rule book mistakes (catcher's interference . . .).
That's how I see it.  162 game seasons are a much better measurement of how good a team is than playoffs are.   Playoffs are a crapshoot, and you win a title by getting there as often as you can.   Having the 3 big SP, and the key hitters all healthy and playing well put us in a better position in 2019 than other years.   

Offline imref

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #7: May 13, 2021, 09:47:30 AM »
Only in the same sense the 1990s Braves were or someone with four consecutive bronze medals and one gold is.  Dynasties win championships.  If the Bills had won one of those Super Bowls, would they be a dynasty?

I think so. I'd define a dynasty as a team that is at or near the top for a long period of time (5 or more years), so by that definition the Braves, the Dodgers, the Giants of the early 2010's. If you limit it to teams that win multiple championships then you don't really ever have a dynasty anymore.

WRT to the 2012-19 Nats, given we never advanced in the playoffs until 2019 I'd omit us from the dynasty discussion even though that was one heck of a run.

Offline Five Banners

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #8: May 13, 2021, 09:57:01 AM »
Only in the same sense the 1990s Braves were or someone with four consecutive bronze medals and one gold is.  Dynasties win championships.  If the Bills had won one of those Super Bowls, would they be a dynasty?

Yeah, the real dynasties get it done multiple times, especially exemplified by consecutive titles.  Some teams have consistent dominance in their conference, division, or league, but not as far as overall dominance and thus cannot be said to fit the traditional image of dynasty versus perennial contender.  The fact that it doesn’t happen all the time further distinguishes it and shows the effects of parity efforts as well as expanded wild cards, playoffs, etc.

Offline Slateman

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #9: May 13, 2021, 10:09:54 AM »
Prove it. Define luck. As in Astros?

On May 28, they had a 0.1% chance of winning the WS.

If Trent Grisham fields the Soto hit in RF, we probably lose that game. Grisham is one of the best OF defenders in baseball and the ONLY reason he was there was because of  fluke inury to Yelich.

Then there was the Dodgers series. If MLB hadnt made too few baseballs, Will Smith's long fly ball is a walk off. If Dave Roberts doesnt have a stupid moment and leave Kershaw in, we lose. If Kershaw doesnt have a fluke of giving up back to back homers, we lose.

And then we get to the WS where we won every road game. Which had never happened.


Those of you holding on to 2019 as some sort of repeatable event need to grasp how unique and unrepeatable that was. There was a freak ton of luck. I mean, just the luck of having a healthy Strasburg alone is amazing. Then you add everything else. You cannot count on history repeating. Stop pretending like 2019 was some normal thing. It wasnt. It was historic. It was once in a lifetime type history. Revel in it. Enjoy it. Relive it. But stop pretending like the Nats can just flip it in whenever they want.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #10: May 13, 2021, 10:10:39 AM »
I think so. I'd define a dynasty as a team that is at or near the top for a long period of time (5 or more years), so by that definition the Braves, the Dodgers, the Giants of the early 2010's. If you limit it to teams that win multiple championships then you don't really ever have a dynasty anymore.

WRT to the 2012-19 Nats, given we never advanced in the playoffs until 2019 I'd omit us from the dynasty discussion even though that was one heck of a run.

The Giants are actually a pretty solid discussion point.  Three WS wins in five years.  None consecutive.  But one of those was as a wild card team and the other years in that run they missed the playoffs.  Dynasty or no?  I think you're saying yes.  For me it's close. 

Offline imref

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #11: May 13, 2021, 10:42:57 AM »
The Giants are actually a pretty solid discussion point.  Three WS wins in five years.  None consecutive.  But one of those was as a wild card team and the other years in that run they missed the playoffs.  Dynasty or no?  I think you're saying yes.  For me it's close. 

I'd say yes, 3 titles in 5 years is about as good as you get in baseball.  And man was that a fun team to watch, except in the 2014 NLDS. :)

Offline Duke of Earl

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #12: May 13, 2021, 10:43:21 AM »
"dynasty" is so overused as to be useless, at least compared with what it used to mean.  Yankees.  Packers. Celtics. UCLA basketball. (And perhaps some hockey team, I don't follow hockey.)   Those are the real dynasties, at least in the old sense of the word.  To speak of the Giants as a dynasty is an insult to real dynasties.

Offline YadiSTAR aka Smithian

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #13: May 13, 2021, 11:02:46 AM »
If you're going to claim 2019 was luck, then you have to retroactively apply bad luck to 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2017.


Offline imref

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #14: May 13, 2021, 11:04:32 AM »
If you're going to claim 2019 was luck, then you have to retroactively apply bad luck to 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2017.



Definitely 2012

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #15: May 13, 2021, 11:29:49 AM »
I think most World Series championship teams need a considerable amount of luck to win. Some more than others, the Nats certainly had their share of it in 2019.

RE: Grisham fielding the ball in RF, IDK if the Nats would have been likely to lose if he fields the ball. Soto's hit would have tied the game. He wouldn't have gotten caught on the base paths to end the inning. The game likely would have continued and who knows what would have happened beyond that. Fortunately for us, we don't have to find out.

Offline Duke of Earl

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #16: May 13, 2021, 11:44:46 AM »
. Soto's hit would have tied the game.

I don't know if it would have tied the game. The ball was hit very hard and got to the right fielder very quickly.  I don't know if the runner from second could have scored.

Offline imref

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #17: May 13, 2021, 11:48:50 AM »
I don't know if it would have tied the game. The ball was hit very hard and got to the right fielder very quickly.  I don't know if the runner from second could have scored.

Had we not held on to win that game, Soto would forever be remembered for that base running blunder after he put us ahead in the 8th.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #18: May 13, 2021, 11:52:21 AM »
It was all skill

Offline UMDNats

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #19: May 13, 2021, 11:52:47 AM »
Big-dicking the Dodgers and completely dismantling the Cards wasn't lucky.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #20: May 13, 2021, 11:55:36 AM »
I don't know if it would have tied the game. The ball was hit very hard and got to the right fielder very quickly.  I don't know if the runner from second could have scored.
Stevenson had pinch run for Zim and was on 2nd. I feel pretty confident he would have scored. He was beyond 3rd before the ball bounced past Grisham. Would Kendrick have gotten a bit behind him to drive in Rendon after that? Well, it was 2019, so he very well may have. But again, we'll never know and I'm just fine with that!

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #21: May 13, 2021, 11:56:53 AM »
Big-dicking the Dodgers and completely dismantling the Cards wasn't lucky.
Dave Roberts not taking Joe Kelly out for the 10th and certainly not taking him out after he put a runner on, then two, then three was.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #22: May 13, 2021, 11:57:36 AM »
Dave Roberts not taking Joe Kelly out for the 10th and certainly not taking him out after he put a runner on, then two, then three was.

Eh, playing a dumb manager isn't lucky, it's just playing baseball. We were lucky as hell to come back from 19-31 more than we were lucky in the postseason IMO.

Don't forget we had Joe Torre literally trying to stop us from winning Game 6. We beat the cheating Astros AND the commish office.

Offline imref

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #23: May 13, 2021, 12:46:04 PM »
Dave Roberts not taking Joe Kelly out for the 10th and certainly not taking him out after he put a runner on, then two, then three was.

Yep, Roberts made some bad. moves there.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: So just how lucky was 2019?
« Reply #24: May 13, 2021, 12:51:11 PM »
Eh, playing a dumb manager isn't lucky, it's just playing baseball. We were lucky as hell to come back from 19-31 more than we were lucky in the postseason IMO.

Don't forget we had Joe Torre literally trying to stop us from winning Game 6. We beat the cheating Astros AND the commish office.
However you want to characterize it, they got some very fortunate, unusual things go in their favor at pretty much every stage along the way.