Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

On the bright side, he's still in what should be his prime years, he's athletic, his "stuff" is still intact, and he's been healthy/durable.  I'm holding out hope he can return to form, maybe not all the way to previous levels but a high 3's ERA while taking the ball every 5th day.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

from 4/16/21 - 6/30/21, 13 starts, he averaged 5 7/8 innings per start, had nearly a 3:1 K/BB ratio (7.3/2.5), .256 opponents BA, 1.23 WHIP, 4.01 ERA, 4.24 FIP/3.84 xFIP (a little dinger prone), with a .311 wOBA.  That's pretty good pitching.  Not great, maybe some of it was overlapping with sticky stuff, but 3/4 rotation slot OK.

From 6/30 - 9/1, 11 starts, 58.1 IP, he had a 7.56 ERA, .390 wOBA, with a .299 / .351 / .577 opponents slash line, and a 2.4 K/BB.  6.62 FIP, 4.61xFIP, 2.8 HR/9.

This month, his ERA is fine (3.82), but his wOBA is high (.369). .304 / .372 / .496.  6+ IP / start, 2.2 K/BB, 1.57.  Biggest improvement is in dingers (1.2 / 9), with a bit of bad luck on BABIP (.352).  FIP 4.24, xFIP 3.81, essentially matching the start of the year.

If you say the BABIP luck drives some of the // line and wOBA problems, somewhat compensated for by the HR/9 improvement, it starts to look like his awful 2 months hid an OK year.

[Natsinpwc]

from 4/16/21 - 6/30/21, 13 starts, he averaged 5 7/8 innings per start, had nearly a 3:1 K/BB ratio (7.3/2.5), .256 opponents BA, 1.23 WHIP, 4.01 ERA, 4.24 FIP/3.84 xFIP (a little dinger prone), with a .311 wOBA.  That's pretty good pitching.  Not great, maybe some of it was overlapping with sticky stuff, but 3/4 rotation slot OK.

From 6/30 - 9/1, 11 starts, 58.1 IP, he had a 7.56 ERA, .390 wOBA, with a .299 / .351 / .577 opponents slash line, and a 2.4 K/BB.  6.62 FIP, 4.61xFIP, 2.8 HR/9.

This month, his ERA is fine (3.82), but his wOBA is high (.369). .304 / .372 / .496.  6+ IP / start, 2.2 K/BB, 1.57.  Biggest improvement is in dingers (1.2 / 9), with a bit of bad luck on BABIP (.352).  FIP 4.24, xFIP 3.81, essentially matching the start of the year.

If you say the BABIP luck drives some of the // line and wOBA problems, somewhat compensated for by the HR/9 improvement, it starts to look like his awful 2 months hid an OK year.

If you take out his worst two months don't you also have to remove his best two?

If he could post a 4.50 ERA for a season that would be serviceable.  That's 6 innings and 3 earned runs on average.  Keeps you in most games. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If you take out his worst two months don't you also have to remove his best two?
. 

No, if you know why the bad two months were aberrations and you are looking at him going forward.  Was it adjusting to pitching without the sticky stuff?  Was it a whiney baby at home (Elvir mentioned he had a kid in May)?  Was it what was speculated in Fangraphs, a problem with his delivery, that was adjusted in September and worked out?  I'm not arguing he had a good year.  I'm saying there might be a basis for saying he's not a disaster going forward. 

[Natsinpwc]

No, if you know why the bad two months were aberrations and you are looking at him going forward.  Was it adjusting to pitching without the sticky stuff?  Was it a whiney baby at home (Elvir mentioned he had a kid in May)?  Was it what was speculated in Fangraphs, a problem with his delivery, that was adjusted in September and worked out?  I'm not arguing he had a good year.  I'm saying there might be a basis for saying he's not a disaster going forward.

He wasn’t very good in 2020 either as I recall. Still think he needs a third pitch.

[Slateman]

from 4/16/21 - 6/30/21, 13 starts, he averaged 5 7/8 innings per start, had nearly a 3:1 K/BB ratio (7.3/2.5), .256 opponents BA, 1.23 WHIP, 4.01 ERA, 4.24 FIP/3.84 xFIP (a little dinger prone), with a .311 wOBA.  That's pretty good pitching.  Not great, maybe some of it was overlapping with sticky stuff, but 3/4 rotation slot OK.

From 6/30 - 9/1, 11 starts, 58.1 IP, he had a 7.56 ERA, .390 wOBA, with a .299 / .351 / .577 opponents slash line, and a 2.4 K/BB.  6.62 FIP, 4.61xFIP, 2.8 HR/9.

This month, his ERA is fine (3.82), but his wOBA is high (.369). .304 / .372 / .496.  6+ IP / start, 2.2 K/BB, 1.57.  Biggest improvement is in dingers (1.2 / 9), with a bit of bad luck on BABIP (.352).  FIP 4.24, xFIP 3.81, essentially matching the start of the year.

If you say the BABIP luck drives some of the // line and wOBA problems, somewhat compensated for by the HR/9 improvement, it starts to look like his awful 2 months hid an OK year.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

(Image removed from quote.)

[bluestreak]

He wasn’t very good in 2020 either as I recall. Still think he needs a third pitch.

Don’t use 2020 for any conclusions. Weird preparation, short season, etc.

[imref]

Is there some glimmer of hope?

Last 5 starts: 3.82 ERA / 4.25 FIP, 29ks, 13BBs, .304BA, 4 quality starts in 5 games.

Innings/ER
9/28: 6/2
9/23: 6.2/0
9/18: 4/6
9/12: 7/2
9/6: 7/3

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Is there some glimmer of hope?

Last 5 starts: 3.82 ERA / 4.25 FIP, 29ks, 13BBs, .304BA, 4 quality starts in 5 games.

Innings/ER
9/28: 6/2
9/23: 6.2/0
9/18: 4/6
9/12: 7/2
9/6: 7/3

also, look at his run from after his first two starts to the end of June. He had some good streaks. To the extent there's a tipping issue or a delivery fix, he may have a fixed problem.  His overall stats blew, but there were prolonged quality streaks.

[Slateman]

Do you guys remember when there were rumors about trading Corbin? Dont know where these guys are getting it from, but they claim Preller was trying to do a three team deal with the Nats and Padres

[Mattionals]

Do you guys remember when there were rumors about trading Corbin? Dont know where these guys are getting it from, but they claim Preller was trying to do a three team deal with the Nats and Padres

Would have been great to get Corbin AND Harper out of the NL East.

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

And Max 

Would have been great to get Corbin AND Harper out of the NL East.

[Smithian]

I'm fully in favor of team doing sin trades. You take our overpaid disaster, we'll take yours. See if either guy thrives with a new environment.

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

Just no Trevor Bauer

[Greg_SRT]

I think he has a great 2022. Possibly not even allowing a hit this whole year

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I think he has a great 2022. Possibly not even allowing a hit this whole year

especially true if there's no season

[imref]

5th worst contract in the majors:

https://www.audacy.com/wfan/sports/gallery/ranking-the-11-worst-mlb-contracts-ahead-of-2022-season

Strasburg is #1

[Slateman]

Lasted about four innings

[Smithian]

He didn't look terrible last night. Even counting the fifth inning, I expected worse.

Cautiously optimistic this guy can post a sub 4.50 ERA this year.

[Slateman]

Yea. All around baseball, we were seeing starters not make itninto the 5th and 6th innings. He looked good through four. Hopefully he can build up to a normal starter regimen

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Yea. All around baseball, we were seeing starters not make it into the 5th and 6th innings. He looked good through four. Hopefully he can build up to a normal starter regimen

Also, his pitch count hit 76 in lousy weather. 

[NatsAllThe Way]

Is the draft supposed to be good this year?  Because this is a 120 loss team.

[Natsinpwc]

Is the draft supposed to be good this year?  Because this is a 120 loss team.

You mean the 2023 draft?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Is the draft supposed to be good this year?  Because this is a 120 loss team.

this year we have the 4th pick or 5th, I think.