Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread

[Elvir Ovcina]

Its Randy Johnson and its not even a close comparison

At least at his peak, yeah.  Sorta like when people ask about the greatest FA signings ever...

[Slateman]

At least at his peak, yeah.  Sorta like when people ask about the greatest FA signings ever...

Uh .... when is he not in his peek? From 1990 to 2004, he posted a sub 3 ERA and was the best pitcher in baseball. At a time when steroid use was rampant, Randy Johnson was blanking dudes with two pitches.

He has more Cy Young awards than Spahn and Koufax combined. That dude is the GOAT left hander ever, and frankly, deserves no small amount of consideration for the best pitcher ever.

[hotshot]

Spahm isnt the greatest lefty pitcher of all time

In my youth, I saw Spahn (363 career wins) in person numerous times at the Polo Grounds. He may not have been THE best lefty of all time but ... pretty damn good.

Even at age 42 (in 1963), he and Juan Marichal pitched into the 16th inning of a game Spahn lost on a walk-off solo HR by Willie Mays. He gave up 9 hits and 1 walk in the 15 1/3 innings he pitched. 

And we should feel fortunate if Corbin can somehow get through a lineup twice? 

[Slateman]

In regards to Corbin and the inabilty to throw his slider for strikes, I'd say that is pretty much a false narrative.

This season, so far, 35.8% of Corbin's sliders are being seen in the strike zone. It was 31.5% in 2019 and 35.4% in 2018.

The bigger issue is the rate at which opposing batters are hitting the slider in the strike zone. 82.1% of the time the slider is in the zone and batters swing, they make contact. In comparison, those numbers were 76.3% in 2019, and 69.6% in 2018. There is corresponding ~4% drop in batter's swings at the slider outside of the zone.

So the issue isn't that Corbin can't throw his slider for strikes, per say. Its that he's catching too much of the plate when he does, and opposing batters are able to key on it. Anything that doesn't line up with that keyhole is missing wildly. But he is more than capable of throwing it for strikes. In fact, that's probably the bigger problem right now.

When Corbin is on, that slider plays on the arm side edge of the strikezone, or falls off the table into the dirt. But either way, those two pitches are pretty similar to each other in 2018 and 2019. In 2020 and 2021, they are rather far apart. Couple this with Corbin's early inning struggles at the start of the season, his more recent struggles after ~70 pitches or so, and Zim's comments, makes me wonder if there is a lingering injury and/or effect from 2019 that is being magnified by the short season in 2020.

[Natsinpwc]

Its Randy Johnson and its not even a close comparison

Koufax was more dominating although I guess he loses points for lack of longevity at his peak. Here is one list that I kind of agree with.

https://thegruelingtruth.com/baseball/top-10-left-handed-pitchers-baseball-history/

BTW Carlton had a career ERA slightly lower than Johnson. Maybe not steroids but the hitters were all doing greenies. 

[Five Banners]

Nice way to skip reading. Corbin throws a 93-94 mph fastball and an unhittable slider that dives into the dirt. When hitters ignore the slider, he walks guys, he gets into bad counts, he gets clobbered. That's not really two pitches. Corbin can throw one pit for strikes and another wide and in the dirt. How does that work?

And you believe, heart of hearts, that some anonymous left-hander was "the greatest" with only two pitches? Was one of them useless when hitters quit swinging at it? Greatest? So you've never heard of Warren Spahn? Read this:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/spahnwa01.shtml

And his early prime was spent overseas in World War II

[Slateman]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-potential-fix-for-patrick-corbin/

What is puzzling, though, are the results Corbin is getting on his best pitch: the slider. In 2019, Statcast data estimated the pitch as being worth 26.8 (!) runs above-average, making it the fourth-most valuable pitch in the game. If Corbin’s slider isn’t working — as it hasn’t been the last two years — he’s not himself. It’s still a good pitch, but there’s an enormous difference between getting a 51% whiff rate on the offering, as he did in 2019, and a 38% whiff rate on it, as he’s done the last two years. “Fixing” Corbin’s slider would go a long way in fixing him, so that is where he must start.

And I think the fix is pretty simple: Corbin is generating too much extension. Corbin’s extension has ticked up big time on all of his pitches and it may be a prime reason for his ineffectiveness. In 2019, Corbin was releasing the ball 6.2 feet from the rubber on average. (I wrote more about extension in a piece on effective velocity and Bailey Falter.) In 2020, that average jumped to 6.7 feet. In 2021, it’s gone up even more, to 6.8 feet on average. His extension has jumped on all of his pitches, but let’s take a quick look at how he’s released his slider over the last five seasons:

Corbin’s slider extension jumped by 0.8 feet from 2019 to ’21. This means that when Corbin throws the pitch, he’s now doing so 9.6 inches closer to home plate than he was two years ago. Why does this matter? Well, for a pitcher like Corbin, who has a big, looping, curveball-ish slider, it means he’s missing out on a ton of gravity that could help him miss bats.

[varoadking]

Koufax was more dominating although I guess he loses points for lack of longevity at his peak. Here is one list that I kind of agree with.

https://thegruelingtruth.com/baseball/top-10-left-handed-pitchers-baseball-history/

BTW Carlton had a career ERA slightly lower than Johnson. Maybe not steroids but the hitters were all doing greenies.

Koufax is the Barry Sanders of baseball...great, but neither stuck around long enough to become the greatest...

[hohoho]

Koufax is the Barry Sanders of baseball...great, but neither stuck around long enough to become the greatest...

Different eras, take your pick:
Johnson 22 seasons 101.1 WAR 3.29 era 5 cy young’s 4 era titles, 4975 K
Spahn 21, 100.1, 3.09, 1, 3, 2583
Koufax 12, 48.9, 2.76, 3, 5, 2396
Carlton 24, 90.2, 3.22, 4, 1, 4136
Grove 17, 106.8, 3.06, na, 9, 2266
Kershaw 14, 71.8, 2.48, 3, 5, 2653
Interesting that Kershaw maybe > Koufax and still active at 33.

[Slateman]

Randy Johnson's 110 WAR is the highest among any lefty pitcher in history

[hohoho]

Randy Johnson's 110 WAR is the highest among any lefty pitcher in history

Baseball Reference says 101.1

[hotshot]

Slate, you said above "The bigger issue is the rate at which opposing batters are hitting the slider in the strike zone. 82.1% of the time the slider is in the zone and batters swing, they make contact. In comparison, those numbers were 76.3% in 2019, and 69.6% in 2018."

Can you put the 76.3% and 69.6% numbers into perspective. Comparatively, are they average, both bad, OK/good?? Both seem like a lot of (too much?) contact to me-- for your best pitch.

[Mattionals]

Baseball Reference says 101.1

bWAR (or rWAR) use runs against per nine versus fWAR using FIP. Take that for what you will, but ground ball pitchers with great defense behind them have more bWAR then fWAR. In this case, Randy Johnson was a K machine and fWAR uses FIP (Fielding Independent pitching) which greatly appreciates strikeouts, hence the higher number.

[Duke of Earl]

Koufax is the Barry Sanders of baseball...great, but neither stuck around long enough to become the greatest...

Not only did he not stick around, he didn't become truly great until about year 8 of a 12 year career.  He had 5 great years.  Not bad, but not good enough to be considered "best".  Probably the best 5 consecutive years of any pitchers though.

I do take some issue with the Barry Sanders comparison.  I never was a fan.  It seemed to me that he occasionally broke free for a long run,  but mostly was thrown for a  three-yard loss.  He was never an Emmitt Smith, for example, who could give you first downs, one after another, which is really what you need from a running back. Sanders was more functionally a wide receiver. Maybe that's just my observation from watching too many Redskin games during a period when they totally dominated the Lions whenever they played.

[Duke of Earl]

Has Corbin ever tried to develop a third pitch?  A second offspeed pitch could be very effective.  Batters recognize offspeed, and if you only have one offspeed pitch, a slider, the batter knows it's a slider.  If he had a curve, he might recognize it's offspeed but not be able to distinguish slider from curve.  A changeup would be even more effective (since it's often the same speed as a slider, where a curve is much slower).  But a changeup seems much harder to develop.

[Natsinpwc]

Has Corbin ever tried to develop a third pitch?  A second offspeed pitch could be very effective.  Batters recognize offspeed, and if you only have one offspeed pitch, a slider, the batter knows it's a slider.  If he had a curve, he might recognize it's offspeed but not be able to distinguish slider from curve.  A changeup would be even more effective (since it's often the same speed as a slider, where a curve is much slower).  But a changeup seems much harder to develop.

He has tried the change up.  I see different things on different sites but this one shows he is not throwing a two seamer either. Another site shows he throw a two seamer but no different speed wise from his four seamer. That’s a problem also.

https://www.pitcherlist.com/player/patrick-corbin/

[English Natsie]

Perhaps he could try to crush the batter by sending down some blistering wit and satire - but would that be ruled a Wilde pitch?...

[rileyn]

Zimm was speaking for Corbin when he said Corbin was abused him in the 2019 playoffs.  If that is the case, shut him down asap.  We can suck with or without Corbin for the remainder of the season.  Get him ready for 2022.

[Mattionals]

Zimm was speaking for Corbin when he said Corbin was abused him in the 2019 playoffs.  If that is the case, shut him down asap.  We can suck with or without Corbin for the remainder of the season.  Get him ready for 2022.

That was literally a year and a half ago and let's all be honest, I don't think Corbin was pitching full tilt from the WS win until JULY 2020 when the season started. He had plenty of time to rest up, and if he is hurt, it's not something rest can fix.

[aspenbubba]

I believe that Corbin’s performance and contract will add an additional year plus to the re-build. If Strasburg doesn’t recover and become our Ace we can add another two years to the rebuild.
I’m reading that some on here are saying Soto is gone after ‘24 and he will be a Yankee because that was his dream team. Didn’t I read the same about Harper. He left and chose pinstripes but they werent blue.

[Mattionals]

I believe that Corbin’s performance and contract will add an additional year plus to the re-build. If Strasburg doesn’t recover and become our Ace we can add another two years to the rebuild.
I’m reading that some on here are saying Soto is gone after ‘24 and he will be a Yankee because that was his dream team. Didn’t I read the same about Harper. He left and chose pinstripes but they werent blue.

I said the stuff about Soto but it's pure conjecture. The Yankees have worldwide recognition and just about any kid who doesn't live in a MLB city or TV network rights area sees the Yankees as where they wanna play. It's the most storied franchise in baseball, and potentially of all sports.

I'm not saying that is where Soto wants to go, but as a kid growing up in the DR, it's probably safe to say it's the dream of those kids to play for the Yankees and not for another team.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The Red Sox have a decent DR following since the Pedro  Manny Papi days

[UMDNats]

The DR love for the Yankees is overblown. Money talks and is all that matters.

[Natsinpwc]

The DR love for the Yankees is overblown. Money talks and BULLcrap WALKS.

[Smithian]

I can't believe how bad it has gotten for this guy. Hard to believe he is 2 years removed from pitching 200+ innings at a high level.

I feel like you have to try him as a starter next season but eventually consider moving him to the pen as a left specialist who can go long. It'll hurt to have that much money invested into a reliever, but I'd rather have a highly overpaid effective bullpen arm than a flailing starter. His platoon stats are so significant I think he could maybe figure into a different role. Maybe get creative, use him as an opener against teams with a couple talented left handed bats at the top.