Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread

[Smithian]

I’m concerned.

[RobDibblesGhost]

I’m concerned.

Ditto. He’s gotten shelled in both his starts so far.

[Smithian]

Ditto. He’s gotten shelled in both his starts so far.

I remember thinking he'd be a, if not elite, very good front of the rotation starter to take us into the 2020's, transitioning us from Scherzer. I thought worst case scenario he was a super overpaid John Lannan or Tanner Roark who would go out there every 5 days and eat innings. He isn't even near there right now.

He desperately needs a stint on the Jason Marquis Memorial "I Suck"™ disabled list.

[NatsAllThe Way]

Disastrous nightmare.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I think there's going to be a break over the next few days.  Maybe a skipped start while he works things out in the bullpen.  Judging off the timing of Lester's simulated game, Fedde I think is due for one more start before Lester is activated, then Lester can take Corbin's slot while he goes to the bullpen for a week or so.

[Mathguy]

It's early

I remember thinking he'd be a, if not elite, very good front of the rotation starter to take us into the 2020's, transitioning us from Scherzer. I thought worst case scenario he was a super overpaid John Lannan or Tanner Roark who would go out there every 5 days and eat innings. He isn't even near there right now.

He desperately needs a stint on the Jason Marquis Memorial "I Suck"™ disabled list.

[imref]

FIP last four seasons:
2018: 2.47
2019: 3.49
2020: 4.17
2021: 13.71

Yeah, it's early, and we certainly can expect regression downward,  but he's heading in the wrong direction.  And he's eating up a ton of salary over the next 3 years.

[aspenbubba]

Overpaid # 3 that performs like a # 5.  I stated in the 2019 prediction thread that Corbin would underperform. This maybe Rizzos worst signing ever.

[Natsinpwc]

Overpaid # 3 that performs like a # 5.  I stated in the 2019 prediction thread that Corbin would underperform. This maybe Rizzos worst signing ever.

Well you were wrong in 2019 and he was an integral part of a championship team. Do you feel better that he sucks now?

[Elvir Ovcina]

I'm more concerned about the general downward trend, plus his age, injury history, and contract, than I am about yesterday's game.  Yesterday would get forgotten quickly if he hadn't also been mediocre last year, about to turn 32, have had Tommy John nearly a decade ago, and have 3.9 expensive seasons left on his deal.

But anything with Corbin needs to be judged alongside the fact that he put the 2019 team over the top.  Is that worth $160 million?  Not really my question to answer.

[Slateman]

This is pretty normal for free agent signings. Especially pitchers. You hope that half the contract he performs up to or near the cost. The other half is simply the cost of doing business.

Nationals fanbase is spoiled. They expect every prospect to become Harper and Soto, and every free agent signing to be Murphy or Scherzer.

[bluestreak]

Who cares? He’s fulfilled his purpose. Anything else he provides is gravy.

[Slateman]

Who cares? He’s fulfilled his purpose. Anything else he provides is gravy.

If thats how you want to look at it, okay. How long does this grace period last?

[Greg_SRT]

Long layoff because of COVID. Give him time to correct the issue.

[aspenbubba]

Well you were wrong in 2019 and he was an integral part of a championship team. Do you feel better that he sucks now?

I was not wrong. He did a great job relieving Scherzer but had a mediocre season.

[Slateman]

I was not wrong. He did a great job relieving Scherzer but had a mediocre season.

Uh ... he was very good in the 2019 regular season

[skippy1999]

Overpaid # 3 that performs like a # 5.

He's performing like #2

[Natsinpwc]

I was not wrong. He did a great job relieving Scherzer but had a mediocre season.

3.25 ERA with 200 innings pitched. They don’t make the playoffs without him. Just admit you were wrong. 

[Natsinpwc]

Needs to keep working on his change. And cutter. Can’t get by on two pitches anymore. Time will tell.

[imref]

3.25 ERA with 200 innings pitched. They don’t make the playoffs without him. Just admit you were wrong. 

Probably not, though a guy like Lance Lynn might have gotten us there as well without the big contract.  Corbin was very good out of the bullpen in the 2019 playoffs, but two of his three starts were awful in the playoffs.

2019:
Lynn: 3.13 FIP / 1.219 WHIP, 33 starts, 246Ks, 208.1 IP
Corbin: 3.49 FIP / 1.183 WHIP, 33 starts, 238Ks, 202.0 IP

Lynn signed for 3/$30 million before the 2019 season, Corbin signed for 6/$140 million.

I thought he was a good signing, but I think now it's an open debate as to whether or not signing him was the right move.

[Natsinpwc]

Probably not, though a guy like Lance Lynn might have gotten us there as well without the big contract.  Corbin was very good out of the bullpen in the 2019 playoffs, but two of his three starts were awful in the playoffs.

2019:
Lynn: 3.13 FIP / 1.219 WHIP, 33 starts, 246Ks, 208.1 IP
Corbin: 3.49 FIP / 1.183 WHIP, 33 starts, 238Ks, 202.0 IP

Lynn signed for 3/$30 million before the 2019 season, Corbin signed for 6/$140 million.

I thought he was a good signing, but I think now it's an open debate as to whether or not signing him was the right move.

Sure but they got a great 2019 out of him. 

[bluestreak]

If thats how you want to look at it, okay. How long does this grace period last?

I don’t know, but more than 70 games.

[imref]

I don’t know, but more than 70 games.

the grace period probably lasts until there's a belief that he can't get to under a 5.00 ERA. 

[Smithian]

I'm not going to say the signing was a mistake.  In 2019, over his first 10 starts before the Nationals took off at the 19-31 mark, Corbin went 4-2 with a 3.25 ERA, with the Nationals 6-4 overall in his starts. It's still a shock the Nationals crawled out of that hole, and let's say you put in a lesser pitcher who went 4-6? It's not much, but that little bit may have been just enough the team never recovered. And we know what he did in Game 7.

We can acknowledge a Championship alone maybe justified the signing, and still worry about how he plays into the Nationals plans the next few years.

[Slateman]

I don’t know, but more than 70 games.

Everything wrong with the DMV in one sentence.

The Dodgers played 0 games before talking about winning another championship. Dombrowaski was fired within a year of his.