Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Right now the rotation is Espino, Gray, Corbin, Sanchez, Abbott.  I guess they could move Erasmo into the rotation for one of those guys, or else cut a guy off the 40 man roster and add Cavalli or someone else.  As bad as Corbin is, I'm not sure he's a worse option than Sanchez right now.  The Nats really seem determined not to add Cavalli yet.  You can't say none of those guys should not be replaced. 

[PowerBoater69]

No he doesnt. Quit being stupid. If he didnt want to pitch he'd just say his shoulder is sore.

Why bother? Get an MRI, see the doctors, go on IL, then do minor league rehab starts, just to get called back up. He wants to be cut loose, free and clear.

[Natsinpwc]

Why bother? Get an MRI, see the doctors, go on IL, then do minor league rehab starts, just to get called back up. He wants to be cut loose, free and clear.

Do you really think he’s pitching bad intentionally?  I mean he keeps going out there every time. I think many guys would have claimed an injury so they did not.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Why bother? Get an MRI, see the doctors, go on IL, then do minor league rehab starts, just to get called back up. He wants to be cut loose, free and clear.

Or just get an MRI, go on the IL, say it still hurts.  That easily gets you through the rest of this year.

If they were going to cut him, they would have done it already, and his numbers are so bad now that nobody would pick him up.  I don't get why a guy who could still pitch even remotely decently wouldn't do it - he gets his money either way, and decent stats might get him out of town with the Nats picking up a bunch of his salary. 

[PowerBoater69]

Do you really think he’s pitching bad intentionally?  I mean he keeps going out there every time. I think many guys would have claimed an injury so they did not.

He wants to be gone, the team made it clear they want him gone, the team is tanking, he sure isn't giving 100% effort at this point.

[Natsinpwc]

He wants to be gone, the team made it clear they want him gone, the team is tanking, he sure isn't giving 100% effort at this point.

I think you and Elvir are projecting your feelings onto him. I think he probably is embarrassed and wants to fix things.  No one wants to be a guy who had one of the worst contracts ever. At this point the team is Triple A quality. No real replacement for him other than Cavalli who they don’t seem to want to bring up. So just ride it out and maybe he will find soemthing.

[Slateman]

Pick a starter from Rochester. DFA Weems. Put Corbin in the oen

[Slateman]

I think you and Elvir are projecting your feelings onto him. I think he probably is embarrassed and wants to fix things.  No one wants to be a guy who had one of the worst contracts ever. At this point the team is Triple A quality. No real replacement for him other than Cavalli who they don’t seem to want to bring up. So just ride it out and maybe he will find soemthing.

This. If he didnt want to be here, he wouldnt be. Hes already made 85 million. He's got more than enough money.

[van lingle mungo]

At this point the team is Triple A quality.

That's being generous. I can probably name a half dozen Triple A teams that would wipe the floor with them.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I think you and Elvir are projecting your feelings onto him. I think he probably is embarrassed and wants to fix things.  No one wants to be a guy who had one of the worst contracts ever. At this point the team is Triple A quality. No real replacement for him other than Cavalli who they don’t seem to want to bring up. So just ride it out and maybe he will find soemthing.

I wasn't saying that's what Corbin wants to do or should do. Just pointing out that it would be easier than the course PB proposed.

All I see is a dude who's been taking the ball every 5 days and then taking his lumps without complaint.  I can't be mad at the dude for the contract or the fact that he stinks now.  He's not a major league pitcher anymore.  He's 33 and had TJ 8 years ago.  He's just having the same career path as Jordan Zimmermann, and it's sad to watch.

[Natsinpwc]

I wasn't saying that's what Corbin wants to do or should do. Just pointing out that it would be easier than the course PB proposed.

All I see is a dude who's been taking the ball every 5 days and then taking his lumps without complaint.  I can't be mad at the dude for the contract or the fact that he stinks now.  He's not a major league pitcher anymore.  He's 33 and had TJ 8 years ago.  He's just having the same career path as Jordan Zimmermann, and it's sad to watch.

Agree.  The team is putting him out there every 5 days. 

[aspenbubba]

For those who have suggested that he should go to the BP I believe that is a reach. He hasn’t got out of the first inning in 2 of 3 of his last starts. He would make a great batting practice pitcher and could probably help our offense get some timely hits with RISP.

[van lingle mungo]

No one wants to be a guy who had one of the worst contracts ever.

He's somewhat safe in that regard, at least as far as this franchise is concerned. He'll always be able to point a finger at Strasburg while he's laughing all the way to the bank.

[van lingle mungo]

He could probably help our offense get some timely hits with RISP.

Outstanding thinking outside of the box! He could be the next Rick Ankiel!!! All that's left to do for him now in order to fulfill that is to launch a few pitches into the backstop. I think you may be onto something. We'll just have to learn to overlook the fact that he'll be making 25x what Ankiel did. Davey needs to start him in CF tomorrow.

[imref]

He needs a IL stint.

[Smithian]

He needs a IL stint.

I stand by my post last April

He desperately needs a stint on the Jason Marquis Memorial "I Suck"™ disabled list.

[PowerBoater69]

He needs a IL stint.

For what purpose? To punt the issue to next season? If he can't pitch anymore then cut him next spring and take the salary cap hit in 2023. Otherwise it's a lost season anyway, might as well keep sending him out there to try to figure out a way to salvage his career.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Here's one for anyone who uses Fangraphs' WAR as a source of anything: Corbin has a positive fWAR currently.  His 110.1 innings of a 7.02 ERA while leading the league in hits and earned allowed is apparently just as much as contributor to winning baseball games this season as as been Alexis Diaz' 1.94 ERA in 41.2 relief innings.

Stuff like this is why I close my eyes and start shaking my head any time anyone talks about Fangraphs.  Statistics have uses.  They can also be overprocessed and twisted to the point that a McNugget looks like something straight from nature.  The latter tells you that Patrick Corbin is above replacement level.

[Kevrock]

Well you're cherry picking one stat. I have never liked pitching WAR as a standalone stat.

Pitching peripherals and the big hitting stats like wRC+ are invaluable.

[Slateman]

Needs to be moved to the pen

[Elvir Ovcina]

Well you're cherry picking one stat. I have never liked pitching WAR as a standalone stat.

Pitching peripherals and the big hitting stats like wRC+ are invaluable.

Starting pitching WAR is not a very good stat for a lot of reasons.  That was just an egregious and hilarious example, largely driven by the fact that artificial stats tend to get weird-looking with edge cases.

But heck, Corbin's 2020 season, in which Fangraphs awarded him 1.2 WAR despite the team losing 9 of his 11 starts, is another example from the same pitcher.  That statistic implies that a replacement-level pitcher would win less than 1 of his 11 starts.   Again, the chicken McNugget of stats - which makes xFIP something out of a horror movie.

But my larger point was, if one must use pitching WAR, BR's is much more accurate or at least not nonsensical.  Agree on the peripherals, but the peripherals have always been there for those who wanted to look. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Here's one for anyone who uses Fangraphs' WAR as a source of anything: Corbin has a positive fWAR currently.  His 110.1 innings of a 7.02 ERA while leading the league in hits and earned allowed is apparently just as much as contributor to winning baseball games this season as as been Alexis Diaz' 1.94 ERA in 41.2 relief innings.

Stuff like this is why I close my eyes and start shaking my head any time anyone talks about Fangraphs.  Statistics have uses.  They can also be overprocessed and twisted to the point that a McNugget looks like something straight from nature.  The latter tells you that Patrick Corbin is above replacement level.

there's been lot's of criticism of using FIP in their WAR calculation. That's the root of the stat issue.  Corbin's FIP is 4.96, so, with 110 innings, that 0.4 fWAR means he's been well below average but (barely) usable.  At 110 innings, an average pitcher would have a fWAR of about 1.3-1.5.  You are also right that WAR doesn't work well for relievers, too. WPA is probably a better stat for relievers.

You know who is dead last in fWAR among pitchers with > 100 innings.  Our friend Josiah Gray, at -0.3.  Reason?  It's his homers.  That pushes his FIP way above Corbin's (5.71).  Corbin's fWAR is 4 lowest among regular starters.  The guys who have a legit complaint are the 2 non-Nats, Jose Berrios and Marco Gonzales.  Gonzales has an ERA under 4.  Berrios has less of a beef (ERA 5.19) but he has a winning record, 8-4.

Finally, part of the reason Corbin's FIP is 2+ runs better than his ERA is his BABIP (.384) gets neutralized in the calculation.  The team's pitchers' BABIP is .303, so Corbin probably doesn't deserve the break he gets on FIP.  That's a long-winded way of saying Elvir is right. 

[Elvir Ovcina]

there's been lot's of criticism of using FIP in their WAR calculation. That's the root of the stat issue.  Corbin's FIP is 4.96, so, with 110 innings, that 0.4 fWAR means he's been well below average but (barely) usable.  At 110 innings, an average pitcher would have a fWAR of about 1.3-1.5.  You are also right that WAR doesn't work well for relievers, too. WPA is probably a better stat for relievers.

FIP is the most overused and misunderstood stat of the modern ones.  If people were being honest, they wouldn't artificially scale it to make it look like an ERA but instead let it stand on its own merits.

[Natsinpwc]

Lies.
Damn Lies.
And Stats.

[Natsinpwc]

Lies.
Damn Lies.
And Stats.

On any stat there will always be a couple of outliers. Question is does it represent performance accurately for the majority of the population. Usually best to use several different stats to get the most complete picture.