Message #2224212

[Slateman]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-potential-fix-for-patrick-corbin/

What is puzzling, though, are the results Corbin is getting on his best pitch: the slider. In 2019, Statcast data estimated the pitch as being worth 26.8 (!) runs above-average, making it the fourth-most valuable pitch in the game. If Corbin’s slider isn’t working — as it hasn’t been the last two years — he’s not himself. It’s still a good pitch, but there’s an enormous difference between getting a 51% whiff rate on the offering, as he did in 2019, and a 38% whiff rate on it, as he’s done the last two years. “Fixing” Corbin’s slider would go a long way in fixing him, so that is where he must start.

And I think the fix is pretty simple: Corbin is generating too much extension. Corbin’s extension has ticked up big time on all of his pitches and it may be a prime reason for his ineffectiveness. In 2019, Corbin was releasing the ball 6.2 feet from the rubber on average. (I wrote more about extension in a piece on effective velocity and Bailey Falter.) In 2020, that average jumped to 6.7 feet. In 2021, it’s gone up even more, to 6.8 feet on average. His extension has jumped on all of his pitches, but let’s take a quick look at how he’s released his slider over the last five seasons:

Corbin’s slider extension jumped by 0.8 feet from 2019 to ’21. This means that when Corbin throws the pitch, he’s now doing so 9.6 inches closer to home plate than he was two years ago. Why does this matter? Well, for a pitcher like Corbin, who has a big, looping, curveball-ish slider, it means he’s missing out on a ton of gravity that could help him miss bats.